bluewave Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Despite the cold winters of 1993-94 & 1995-96, fun fact, at Detroit the 1990s remain the warmest winters decade so far (unsure is 2020s will surpass them since they are only half over). In any event 1995-96 was the classic, albeit rare, example of much less wintry climates having a much more wintry winter than here! Your 9 winter average temperature since the 15-16 super El Niño is the highest on record at Detroit at 31.1°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Your 9 winter average temperature since the 15-16 super El Niño is the highest on record at Detroit at 31.1°. I was referring to individual decades, not intra-decade stretches. 1990s- 29.2F 1950s- 28.6F 1930s- 28.3F 2010s- 28.2F 2000s- 27.7F 1880s- 27.6F 1940s- 27.0F 1890s- 26.5F 1960s- 26.2F 1980s- 25.9F 1920s- 25.8F 1910s- 25.5F 1900s- 24.9F 1970s- 24.8F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 September fit my roll forwards for warm CONUS Dec-July (this year was #1 warmest on record, due to +EPO) pretty well. October is looking like it will also be a match. December is the only month through the following March where there is not an extremely warm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: @Stormchaserchuck1 @GaWx Any update on September’s QBO number yet? +8.61.. not really up a lot from Aug. October will probably be >+10, peaking during the Winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 Code purple in the Bering Strait, raindancewx saying this is not +WPO. It probably hits +3 on the daily here 594dm ridge also extends from Japan to the Aleutian islands in October! Phoenix broke its all time Sept 25-Oct 1 highest temperature record mark by 7.4F (104f vs 112f)! Some real mid-latitude warming going on now.. with a -NAO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 Can someone delete my account? I'm done with this site. Thanks. 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 21 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Can someone delete my account? I'm done with this site. Thanks. Come on, your post about the PDO going positive is one of the most liked in this thread.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 I'm completely serious. I want out. I've been trying to delete this for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 21 minutes ago, raindancewx said: I'm completely serious. I want out. I've been trying to delete this for days. I'll be more sensitive to your plight. I didn't mean to criticize saying that ACE doesn't really matter for the Winter.. just meant to turn it into a logical meteorological discussion. Some things are so simply explained, and we want each other to have better forecasts. You posted that this Aug had the +NAO record and some other things... I wouldn't have known that had you not posted it here. It's mostly good stuff, we're all discussing to make one another better in the realm of science. Whether the WPO is positive or not really means little, I'm actually surprised that it rolls forward to a cooler Dec and Jan in the Midwest and East. You intuitively made that "flip" connection here in the past.. Your intuitions from local observations are mostly good.. I generally agree that it's a global system occurring that can be sensed very individually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 The record heat out West for early fall is on the level of the September into October 2015 super El Niño and 2022 La Niña. Time Series Summary for Cheyenne Area, WY (ThreadEx) - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 64.7 0 2 2024 64.0 0 - 2022 64.0 0 - 2019 64.0 0 3 1998 63.9 0 4 2021 63.6 0 5 2023 63.4 0 6 1963 63.1 0 7 1979 62.8 0 8 1990 62.2 0 9 2018 62.1 0 - 2005 62.1 0 10 1897 61.9 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: September fit my roll forwards for warm CONUS Dec-July (this year was #1 warmest on record, due to +EPO) pretty well. October is looking like it will also be a match. December is the only month through the following March where there is not an extremely warm signal. heh ... considering that the whole world put up the 2nd warmest sep in history ... not sure we can say 'due to +epo' as the singular cause for that but yeah, it wasn't hurting to have the pacific signal as such 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'll be more sensitive to your plight. I didn't mean to criticize saying that ACE doesn't really matter for the Winter.. just meant to turn it into a logical meteorological discussion. Some things are so simply explained, and we want each other to have better forecasts. You posted that this Aug had the +NAO record and some other things... I wouldn't have known that had you not posted it here. It's mostly good stuff, we're all discussing to make one another better in the realm of science. Whether the WPO is positive or not really means little, I'm actually surprised that it rolls forward to a cooler Dec and Jan in the Midwest and East. You intuitively made that "flip" connection here in the past.. Your intuitions from local observations are mostly good.. I generally agree that it's a global system occurring that can be sensed very individually. Yea, raindance can be very prickily, but hopefully he stays because he is a great forecaster. I would def. suggest giving him a follow on X whether he leaves of stays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The record heat out West for early fall is on the level of the September into October 2015 super El Niño and 2022 La Niña. Time Series Summary for Cheyenne Area, WY (ThreadEx) - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 64.7 0 2 2024 64.0 0 - 2022 64.0 0 - 2019 64.0 0 3 1998 63.9 0 4 2021 63.6 0 5 2023 63.4 0 6 1963 63.1 0 7 1979 62.8 0 8 1990 62.2 0 9 2018 62.1 0 - 2005 62.1 0 10 1897 61.9 0 One of these days Chris will make a post that doesn't make me want to shotgun a gallon of antifreeze. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 Of course, we finally may get a season in which raindance is a voice of dissent amidst a chorus of doom and gloom for the east and he'll dissapear faster than a day 16 snow threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 Regardless of that the weather is doing, its fruitless to post in here during the fall because anything and everything will be tied to warmth during the winter somehow. I'm sure even a blizzard in January will elicit a slew a "roll forward" posts to MC forcing in February, but at least then you can enjoy the snow while enduring it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One of these days Chris will make a post that doesn't make me want to shotgun a gallon of antifreeze. That isn’t my intention Just pointing out how anomalous the warmth out West has been. The interesting thing about this recent -PDO era in the 2020s is how much more of a ridge and warmth we are getting out West from the summer into fall than the older -PDO era. Must be related to the extreme marine heatwaves over the Pacific Basin. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: That isn’t my intention Just pointing out how anomalous the warmth out West has been. The interesting thing about this recent -PDO era in the 2020s is how much more of a ridge and warmth we are getting out West from the summer into fall than the older -PDO era. Must be related to the extreme marine heatwaves over the Pacific Basin. I know...no offense intended whatsoever. Just a tension-breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One of these days Chris will make a post that doesn't make me want to shotgun a gallon of antifreeze. I don’t enjoy either what he posts in terms of the outcome or Snowman but where have they been wrong? I’d rather take the bad accurate news than get JB’d for the season to ultimately fail. And it was in the NYC forum exclusively I think but Bluewave was plenty bullish before 2018 when this crap pattern really got underway and pointed out how great things have been for NYC/LI up to then. It’s unpleasant honesty but it is what it is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know...no offense intended whatsoever. Just a tension-breaker. I get it. Sometimes you just have to laugh. But these patterns have been getting stuck in place and repeating across years and seasons in a way we haven’t seen before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: I get it. Sometimes you just have to laugh. But these patterns have been getting stuck in place and repeating across years and seasons in a way we haven’t seen before. We have talked about this before, but you know my stance for now....its regression on the heels of the snowiest decade in history. If it remains like this into next decade, then I will reconsider that position. If you recall, last decade the world was ending out west due to the multiyear drought... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 My guess is that the Atlantic is about to go quiet come mid-month. Huge shear profile starting to show up and the MJO is going to propogate 4-6 (Maritime Continent) with a subsidence response over the Atlantic basin. When you combine that with the big solar spike (upper atmosphere warming/stability) we are seeing, it screams a big drop in TC’s Also, here comes the suspected GOA cold pool, as a normal progression downstream from the big Bering Sea cooling we saw last month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have talked about this before, but you know my stance for now....its regression on the heels of the snowiest decade in history. If it remains like this into next decade, then I will reconsider that position. If you recall, last decade the world was ending out west due to the multiyear drought... Yep, waxes and wanes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: My guess is that the Atlantic is about to go quiet come mid-month. Huge shear profile starting to show up and the MJO is going to propogate 4-6 (Maritime Continent) with a subsidence response over the Atlantic basin. When you combine that with the big solar spike (upper atmosphere warming/stability) we are seeing, it screams a big drop in TC’s Also, here comes the suspected GOA cold pool, as a normal progression downstream from the big Bering Sea cooling we saw last month: The difference between Coral Reefs and Oisst in the N Pac is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yep, waxes and wanes. Theoretically speaking, Chris' connection to CC makes sense...but I just need to see it continue for another 7-8 years or so before more strongly considering it. The permanent alteration of the pattern...not the warming part. We know it is warming....no debate there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The difference between Coral Reefs and Oisst in the N Pac is laughable. Other than some residual warmth it shows in the GOA, it still has the colder anomalies developing there. Other than that, I don’t see a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have talked about this before, but you know my stance for now....its regression on the heels of the snowiest decade in history. If it remains like this into next decade, then I will reconsider that position. If you recall, last decade the world was ending out west due to the multiyear drought... Exactly. We never saw that before either (on record at least), and this is an expected regression. How far it goes and if it continues into the next decade will be very telling. Not sure how many cities had their snowiest decade on record in the 2010s, but just from this board, I can confirm Detroit and New York City both did, along with a slew of others (would be too much work to do each individual city, but the trend is clear). And yes the drought out west was end of the world stuff. A relatives husband is from Oakland, CA and I remember him talking about how horrible the drought was and it seemed like it would never end (all while we were living high off the snow hog). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 32 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I don’t enjoy either what he posts in terms of the outcome or Snowman but where have they been wrong? I’d rather take the bad accurate news than get JB’d for the season to ultimately fail. And it was in the NYC forum exclusively I think but Bluewave was plenty bullish before 2018 when this crap pattern really got underway and pointed out how great things have been for NYC/LI up to then. It’s unpleasant honesty but it is what it is. I would also add that Chris was plenty bullish here and over on Eastern (IIRC) during the heavenly era we experienced beginning in the mid 2000s—and especially 13-14 and 14-15. He’s probably one of the most objective contributors in this community of ours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 Having grown up in the west (Portland OR) I can certainly speak to the feeling that things will never go back to normal and the anguish of multiple lackluster snow years in a row. Things do turn around eventually but decadal snow drought patterns are definitely a thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, raindance can be very prickily, but hopefully he stays because he is a great forecaster. I would def. suggest giving him a follow on X whether he leaves of stays. I don’t use X but would be great if y’all post raindance’s tweets here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I don’t use X but would be great if y’all post raindance’s tweets here. What's his handle over there? (for whoever knows) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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