2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Doesn't the aleutian ridge bring troughing to the east half of the country?

Further to what bluewave said the exact opposite, a mean Aleutian low/trough, is best for cold anomalies in the MidAtlantic states and especially the SE US as it is part of a +PNA and usually results in an E US trough and no SE ridge in winter. Now further N into New England and further NW/W into the E Midwest, it isn’t as clearcut as +PNA isn’t as correlated to cold or perhaps none at all if far enough N or NW/W.

 An Aleutian low is most common in El Niño and Aleutian high is most common in La Niña. That’s why I don’t care for La Niña  down here as this often means strong SE ridge.

 Remember all of those models showing a beautiful Aleutian low at H5 for last winter that I as well as many others were salivating over constantly? It ended up not verifying, which isn’t surprising because seasonal models aren’t at all reliable. That’s why I caution others to not assume the H5 maps for this winter on models like the CFS and Cansips will verify well. My advice as always is to take long range model output, including at 500 mb (H5), with a gigantic grain of salt.

 

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks. I always take seasonal models with a huge grain of salt. They may be off a little or a lot, they won't be exact. It's fun to play the guessing game until showtime.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Further to what bluewave said the exact opposite, a mean Aleutian low/trough, is best for cold anomalies in the MidAtlantic states and especially the SE US as it is part of a +PNA and usually results in an E US trough and no SE ridge in winter. Now further N into New England and further NW/W into the E Midwest, it isn’t as clearcut as +PNA isn’t as correlated to cold or perhaps none at all if far enough N or NW/W.

 An Aleutian low is most common in El Niño and Aleutian high is most common in La Niña. That’s why I don’t care for La Niña  down here as this often means strong SE ridge.

 Remember all of those models showing a beautiful Aleutian low at H5 for last winter that I as well as many others were salivating over constantly? It ended up not verifying, which isn’t surprising because seasonal models aren’t at all reliable. That’s why I caution others to not assume the H5 maps for this winter on models like the CFS and Cansips will verify well. My advice as always is to take long range model output, including at 500 mb (H5), with a gigantic grain of salt.

 

It’s remarkable how dramatic a shift the pattern underwent from February 2015 to December 2015. Very deep Aleutian Low north of Hawaii with -EPO +PNA ridge and deep upper low near the Northeast. This was associated with a strong +PDO signature. Then the historic +13 December in the Northeast with strong +EPO-PNA and one of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record. We also began so see the ridge emerging NW of Hawaii where the deep trough had been. While it took several seasons, the atmospheric pattern eventually flipped the PDO to record low levels. The ridge NW of a Hawaii began to expand and become a potent Aleutian Ridge over time. So the pattern continues to this day with an historic 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row for the Northeast.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just starting to mess with analog composites....here is my first stab at JJA H5...JJA 2024 vs my early matching composite. Looks decent.

[40/70 Benchmark]

What is interesting is the composite rolled forward compared to the JFM CANSIPS

[40/70 Benchmark]

CFS....now I know I have it wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1955-56 was a strong ONI la nina. Winter wasn't too cold (especially January and February), but November and December were cold, as were the spring months.

1956-57 was pretty much a weaker version la nina of 2022-23, a 3rd year la nina that dissipated early in the season. I'm not surprise the map was warm and resembled 2022-23.

The big difference is that the subsurface was warm throughout. I'm pretty sure if this board was around that time, they'd be calling for an el nino in 1955-56 or 1956-57.

Maybe we're heading into a 1954-57 pattern, where we get a multi-year la nina that reaches its peak intensity in Year 2, rather than Year 1.

More like 1970s IMHO....obvuiously warmer, before I get beaten over the head with 2016-2024 composites.

[kazimirkai]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CFS....now I know I have it wrong.

What should I take away from data like this? Still somewhat new here

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

What should I take away from data like this? Still somewhat new here

Nothing much.....all I am saying is that the years I chose to make that JJA H5 composite, which matches JJA 2024 at H5 pretty well, is currently supported by some of the seasonal guidance when rolled forward into winter. Again, just a FWIW at this point and even if it worked out, it will need to be  adjusted warmer today to account for climate change.

[kazimirkai]

Is this guy legit or does he just cherry pick indices to feed enthusiasm?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/3-signs-for-colder-winter-2024-2025-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Is this guy legit or does he just cherry pick indices to feed enthusiasm?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/3-signs-for-colder-winter-2024-2025-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

He looks legit, but after reading him for the past few years, he seems to always find a way to go cold.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He looks legit, but after reading him for the past few years, he seems to always find a way to go cold.

Yes he does. He goes very cold and snowy and says it’s extremely favorable for -NAO/-AO, a weak SPV and SSWEs every year. Even said that back in 2015 with a raging super El Niño in place. He has zero credibility IMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Yes he does. He goes very cold and snowy and says it’s extremely favorable for -NAO/-AO, a weak SPV and SSWEs every year. Even said that back in 2015 with a raging super El Niño in place. He has zero credibility IMO

He is claiming this is going to be an east-base event, which it is not. Its going to be central-based. He is referencing the same research that I did back in 2022.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Many of his westerly QBO years occurred near solar min, so his research isn't exhaustive enough. I will bet my left nut that this DM period does not average -NAO, however, nor do I think its wall-to-wall roofed positive as the Euro implies. I think we see one month that is appreciably negative. That said, we need the Pacific to cooperate or it won't matter for most of us.

[michsnowfreak]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

More like 1970s IMHO....obvuiously warmer, before I get beaten over the head with 2016-2024 composites.

I would definitely take the 1970s over 1950s winters lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would definitely take the 1970s over 1950s winters lol

I think where we are now is a contemporary version of the mid 1970's in terms of multi decadal cycle juxtaposition....emerging from the severely cold PDO/potent el Nino of the early 70s and nearing the flip to cold phase AMO and warm phase PDO. This dovetails into the favorable stretch I expect near the turn of the decade, which would be a milder version of the 76-78 stretch near solar min.

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Is this guy legit or does he just cherry pick indices to feed enthusiasm?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/3-signs-for-colder-winter-2024-2025-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Quite honestly, many if not most online have biases of warm or cold. They definitely have knowledge, but look for ways to twist something warm or cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Quite honestly, many if not most online have biases of warm or cold. They definitely have knowledge, but look for ways to twist something warm or cold.

And its easy to do given the abundance of data and dearth of sample size....case en point, making +QBO/La Nina look like an indicator for -NAO when you are neglecting solar cycle.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think where we are now is a contemporary version of the mid 1970's in terms of multi decadal cycle juxtaposition....emerging from the severely cold PDO of the early 70s and nearing the flip to cold phase AMO and warm phase PDO.

Hot damn! Bring on the late 1970s. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Hot damn! Bring on the late 1970s. 

Amen...obviously don't expect @bluewaveto be icefishing in the Hudson, but cold relative to today's standards.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will admit that you could make a case for east-based Nina until earlier this month, but its never looked likely to persist and is already rapidly changing.

[GaWx]

Look out below!

OISST just plunged 0.2 in 24 hours (because it’s playing catch-up) to -0.56 (weak La Niña territory)

 

CRW: -0.55

 

CDAS: -1.00

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He looks legit, but after reading him for the past few years, he seems to always find a way to go cold.

I read it and all I  got out of it are that there are ways for me to get rid of belly fat, despite the war there are girls in the Ukraine that want to talk with me, and that I have several signs of ahlzeimers, the exact number I  can't remember. 

[michsnowfreak]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Amen...obviously don't expect @bluewaveto be icefishing in the Hudson, but cold relative to today's standards.

To be honest, Id welcome a warmer version of the late 1970s with open arms. That could easily produce even better winters here than the 1970s.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hot damn! Bring on the late 1970s. 

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Amen...obviously don't expect @bluewaveto be icefishing in the Hudson, but cold relative to today's standards.

Thank goodness! As always ……

 

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He is claiming this is going to be an east-base event, which it is not. It’s going to be central-based. He is referencing the same research that I did back in 2022.

Yea, this is going to be a central based/CP Niña and we have clearly turned the corner with this event just in the last couple of days with a decided push starting. The chances for an official Niña as opposed to cold-neutral look way better now. The PMM turning negative with the rapid cooling off Baja, the very strongly negative PDO and the IOD turning negative only support this becoming a Niña further. I suspect there’s a drop in the MEI this month, unlike last winter where the PDO and PMM didn’t play ball and the MEI didn’t couple well, this one will have no problem

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, this is going to be a central based/CP Niña and we have clearly turned the corner with this event just in the last couple of days with a decided push starting. The chances for an official Niña as opposed to cold-neutral look way better now. The PMM turning negative with the rapid cooling off Baja, the very strongly negative PDO and the IOD turning negative only support this becoming a Niña further. I suspect there’s a drop in the MEI this month, unlike last winter where the PDO and PMM didn’t play ball and the MEI didn’t couple well, this one will have to problem

probably going to end up as more of a hybrid event, but i agree that this doesn’t look canonically EP

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, this is going to be a central based/CP Niña and we have clearly turned the corner with this event just in the last couple of days with a decided push starting. The chances for an official Niña as opposed to cold-neutral look way better now. The PMM turning negative with the rapid cooling off Baja, the very strongly negative PDO and the IOD turning negative only support this becoming a Niña further. I suspect there’s a drop in the MEI this month, unlike last winter where the PDO and PMM didn’t play ball and the MEI didn’t couple well, this one will have no problem

 

My stance on peak has always been in the in the upper portion of weak in terms of ONI and moderate in terms of RONI...which means the modoki structure will not be as important as it has the past couple of years given there is more variance with weaker events. But at the end of the day it will all go back to the extra tropicla Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

probably going to end up as more of a hybrid event, but i agree that this doesn’t look canonically EP

Yea, by central I mean hybrid, or mixed.....not modoki. Moral of the story is a moderate intensity hybrid event will come down to the exatra tropical Pacific and polar domain.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

 

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, this is going to be a central based/CP Niña and we have clearly turned the corner with this event just in the last couple of days with a decided push starting. The chances for an official Niña as opposed to cold-neutral look way better now. The PMM turning negative with the rapid cooling off Baja, the very strongly negative PDO and the IOD turning negative only support this becoming a Niña further. I suspect there’s a drop in the MEI this month, unlike last winter where the PDO and PMM didn’t play ball and the MEI didn’t couple well, this one will have no problem

 

If that's the case, then the MEI is going strong la nina in 2024-25. It would be the 3rd strong MEI la nina in 4 years. If the MEI is out of sync with the ONI and RONI in 2024-25, it would be the 4th straight season dating back to 2021-22. All had 2020-21 as a moderate la nina.