mitchnick Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: All you would need to do is build a snowman in Times Square if we could ever get such a favorable Atlantic and Pacific pattern again in the coming winters like Jan 16. I wonder if the film was a little longer, it would have turned to sleet/zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I wonder if the film was a little longer, it would have turned to sleet/zr? If it was 2024, everyone would be high That was a great storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I broke my neck trying to interpret that relative to the east coast, but that looks pretty gradient laden.....PV is really elongated se, so NE would probably make out well. Agreed. But if I'm seeing it correctly, it looks to have a trough over Japan which usually corresponds to a trough in the east. But the JMA did have a canonical Niño trough in the east last year and we know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 28 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Agreed. But if I'm seeing it correctly, it looks to have a trough over Japan which usually corresponds to a trough in the east. But the JMA did have a canonical Niño trough in the east last year and we know how that turned out. A trough over Japan with SSTs this warm? Color me very skeptical. While there is certainly validity to the “pattern causes the SSTs” argument, when you have SSTs this anomalously warm, they start feeding back into the long wave pattern. @bluewave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: A trough over Japan with SSTs this warm? Color me very skeptical. While there is certainly validity to the “pattern causes the SSTs” argument, when you have SSTs this anomalously warm, they start feeding back into the long wave pattern. @bluewave First of all, it's the JMA's first look at the winter, so nobody should take it too seriously. And like I said, the JMA's forecast from last year wasn't so hot. That said, the warm waters around Japan have got to moderate at some point, and a persistent trough at 500mb this winter could be the starting point. Who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I get why some feel that way now, but I'm pretty sure that it will move west and into a central/hybrid event. There’s a few models showing it as a “hybrid” event by winter with the cold anomalies in ENSO regions 3, 3.4 and 4, while 1+2 is neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I do believe that weather derivatives trading does effect the weather.. I'm probably in the minority though. Does anyone know why, probably related to arctic sea ice, a -NAO would correlate with -pna/+epo and +NAO correlates somewhat with +pna/-epo, once the cold season comes about? Another thing is sea level height.. I've connected this with subsurface water temps, especially near the thermocline. We've had a classic +NAO pattern according to sea-level height since 2011, while H5 has sometimes featured anomalous ridging near Greenland. What about the warm SST'S off Newfoundland Chuck ? As we've seen in recent Winter's a 50-50 just can't get established there. I know this is not the main or sole driver of the -NAO but, does assist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 42 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: What about the warm SST'S off Newfoundland Chuck ? As we've seen in recent Winter's a 50-50 just can't get established there. I know this is not the main or sole driver of the -NAO but, does assist. That's a good point. I think the correlation is sea-level height, sometimes reflected by surface SSTs. May-Sept water temps in that region has a strong correlation to the Winter NAO.. right now a custom index I made is coming at about 0.70 (+0.54 SD chance we see DJFM NAO come in around +0.70). Also, October is the only month of the year where the NAO has an opposite correlation to the Winter.. I know we have a big -NAO showing up on models for the end of Sept, but I've never really checked to see if that October opposite correlation runs into late Sept. Right now, I would say it's likely that we have a +NAO Winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That's a good point. I think the correlation is sea-level height, sometimes reflected by surface SSTs. May-Sept water temps in that region has a strong correlation to the Winter NAO.. right now a custom index I made is coming at about 0.70 (+0.54 SD chance we see DJFM NAO come in around +0.70). Also, October is the only month of the year where the NAO has an opposite correlation to the Winter.. I know we have a big -NAO showing up on models for the end of Sept, but I've never really checked to see if that October opposite correlation runs into late Sept. Right now, I would say it's likely that we have a +NAO Winter. The SSTs in the North Atlantic are very highly suggestive of a +NAO winter. We haven’t seen anything even close to a tripole since May….a bad sign. Then you have the New Foundland marine heatwave. Not only that, you have cold SSTs from Davis Straight, south of Greenland and over to Iceland, then the New Foundland warm pool south of it. That temperature gradient between the warm/cold SSTs is a differential zone for a juiced up, fast (zonal) Atlantic jet stream to position itself. IMO the record low arctic sea ice we have now is also playing a role in the overall +NAO tendency. Current antecedent conditions are favorable for a +AO/NAM….La Niña/-ENSO, high geomag/sunpots/radio flux, +QBO, results in a cold, strong SPV once into cold season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The SSTs in the North Atlantic are very highly suggestive of a +NAO winter. We haven’t seen anything even close to a tripole since May….a bad sign. Then you have the New Foundland marine heatwave. Not only that, you have cold SSTs from Davis Straight, south of Greenland and over to Iceland, then the New Foundland warm pool south of it. That temperature gradient between the warm/cold SSTs is a differential zone for a juiced up, fast (zonal) Atlantic jet stream to position itself. IMO the record low arctic sea ice we have now is also playing a role in the overall +NAO tendency. Current antecedent conditions are favorable for a +AO/NAM….La Niña/-ENSO, high geomag/sunpots/radio flux, +QBO, results in a cold, strong SPV once into cold season Just to illustrate my point, you can visualize the zone between the warm/cold SSTs where the jet is going to want to position itself over the North Atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 I said the -NAO/-pna/+epo correlation started in 2013, but when I looked back at cold seasons following the super arctic ice melt in 2007-2012, it appears that correlation was true even back that far. More cold did make it to the surface in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS though, as bluewave pointed out. That pattern has moderated a lot lately, although last January we saw a pretty good pattern break, having some -NAO-driven cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The SSTs in the North Atlantic are very highly suggestive of a +NAO winter. We haven’t seen anything even close to a tripole since May….a bad sign. Then you have the New Foundland marine heatwave. Not only that, you have cold SSTs from Davis Straight, south of Greenland and over to Iceland, then the New Foundland warm pool south of it. That temperature gradient between the warm/cold SSTs is a differential zone for a juiced up, fast (zonal) Atlantic jet stream to position itself. IMO the record low arctic sea ice we have now is also playing a role in the overall +NAO tendency. Current antecedent conditions are favorable for a +AO/NAM….La Niña/-ENSO, high geomag/sunpots/radio flux, +QBO, results in a cold, strong SPV once into cold season Yeah, unless something strange happens it's sure lined up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Just to illustrate my point, you can visualize the zone between the warm/cold SSTs where the jet is going to want to position itself over the North Atlantic Oh yeah, clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: There’s a few models showing it as a “hybrid” event by winter with the cold anomalies in ENSO regions 3, 3.4 and 4, while 1+2 is neutral Yea, that's a hybrid event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 14 hours ago, snowman19 said: The SSTs in the North Atlantic are very highly suggestive of a +NAO winter. We haven’t seen anything even close to a tripole since May….a bad sign. Then you have the New Foundland marine heatwave. Not only that, you have cold SSTs from Davis Straight, south of Greenland and over to Iceland, then the New Foundland warm pool south of it. That temperature gradient between the warm/cold SSTs is a differential zone for a juiced up, fast (zonal) Atlantic jet stream to position itself. IMO the record low arctic sea ice we have now is also playing a role in the overall +NAO tendency. Current antecedent conditions are favorable for a +AO/NAM….La Niña/-ENSO, high geomag/sunpots/radio flux, +QBO, results in a cold, strong SPV once into cold season No one in the world anticipates a -NAO in the DM mean....however, if you are suggesting that it will be extremely positive, then I disagree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one in the world anticipates a -NAO in the DM mean....however, if you are suggesting that it will be extremely positive, than I disagree. Are you surprised he's saying this. It's -PDO, Nina, +NAO/AO, +EPO/WPO, MJO 4-6, etc. Every negative signal you can think of that will cause a snowless, blowtorch winter for the east with this guy. Wash - rinse - repeat. There's zero nuance. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 January NAO.. Will it be a -PNA October? Pretty good correlation here The rest of the year NAO correlates at 51-54% with the Winter NAO, but October is the only month of the year where the correlation is <50%. This is especially true in JFM, where it holds a 55% opposite correlation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 The Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge has been the most dominant feature of the last 9 winters. This is why the Northeast has seen an historic 9 warmer winters in a row. We have never seen a run like this going back to 1950 regardless of what the other teleconnections were doing. So it may be time for a new custom index. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Are you surprised he's saying this. It's -PDO, Nina, +NAO/AO, +EPO/WPO, MJO 4-6, etc. Every negative signal you can think of that will cause a snowless, blowtorch winter for the east with this guy. Wash - rinse - repeat. There's zero nuance. Well, that has characterized the past few years.....so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Are you surprised he's saying this. It's -PDO, Nina, +NAO/AO, +EPO/WPO, MJO 4-6, etc. Every negative signal you can think of that will cause a snowless, blowtorch winter for the east with this guy. Wash - rinse - repeat. There's zero nuance. Stop ruining this thread with your token, useless garbage. Adults are talking in here. Go slither back to the NYC forum and troll there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one in the world anticipates a -NAO in the DM mean....however, if you are suggesting that it will be extremely positive, then I disagree. Severely positive, no. But a solidly positive NAO for DJFM? Absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Severely positive, no. But a solidly positive NAO for DJFM? Absolutely Solidly....yes. .50ish+. We probably see one month average appreciably negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Stop ruining this thread with your token, useless garbage. Adults are talking in here. Go slither back to the NYC forum and troll there JMO...but I think not reacting to posts like that will go a long way towards shedding the 5 PPD. I know its tough....its something I have been working on, as well. Its never desirable to allow someone on the internet to elicit a great deal of negative emotion from you because it causes others to view you in a more negative light. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: January NAO.. Will it be a -PNA October? Pretty good correlation here The rest of the year NAO correlates at 51-54% with the Winter NAO, but October is the only month of the year where the correlation is <50%. This is especially true in JFM, where it holds a 55% opposite correlation October -PNA works better than December -PNA here in the mid-Atlantic. Probably would get a backloaded winter out of this, as November and December would be a torch, but hopefully a March 2023-type block in January would lead to cold and snow opportunities in the first 4 months of 2025. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Not much of a surprise with -ENSO but the model runs back in the spring showing a +IOD were a massive fail And this solar cycle continues to way overperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Looks like August had a -PNA. 2024 8 -1.04 This is good news for the mid-Atlantic. We just need a blocking pattern in November, and we'll be in business for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 If there is to be an official trimonthly La Niña 24-25, it needs to make moves NOW. We are at the out of time point here. If this slacks off again for any extended period, I think we end up with a cold-neutral winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Huge Omega block being modeled This fits the pattern that we've seen for the last 5 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Least active September hurricane seasons are an interesting group if we hold on. Especially in direct opposition to years like 2017 which saw extraordinary activity in September. Arizona should see quite a bit of rain with Ilena once it dies. Don't think we'll get much at all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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