2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The idea is that high solar, which itself apparently contributes to atmospheric stability, may very well be a major contributing factor, not the sole factor.

 Was this stability forecasted? Anyone know? And can stability caused by high solar even be predicted by wx models?

I don’t think that you could call it major since nothing like the upper and lower atmosphere temperature difference occurred at any solar max going back to 1950. Plus none of those seasons had the lull in development like this one did since mid-August near peak solar with such a strong +AMO. So it’s most likely other factors. Plus we never experienced a global temperature spike like we have since last year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really strong -PNA on todays 12z GEFS. +300dm, 594dm ridge in a few days. This is, not coincidentally, as ENSO subsurface is cooling again. 

We will have a near record breaking Aleutian ridge for March-Sept 2024, as ENSO subsurface has been near "Moderate Nina" range the whole time. 

Next 7 months (correlation is opposite):

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really strong -PNA on todays 12z GEFS. +300dm, 594dm ridge in a few days. This is, not coincidentally, as ENSO subsurface is cooling again. 

We will have a near record breaking Aleutian ridge for March-Sept 2024, as ENSO subsurface has been near "Moderate Nina" range the whole time. 

Next 7 months (correlation is opposite):

If only...

[rainsucks]

On 7/31/2024 at 11:08 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's interesting that the roll-forwards for warm CONUS Dec - June, and Dec - July, had August as a break month along with December.. This beats even CPC, who was very bullish on much above average temperatures a short time ago. Something to consider.. the roll forwards were very warm every month through March 2025, with Dec and August being only neutral. August looks like it will fit that pattern with a -EPO developing for some of the time. Doesn't mean Sept-Oct will be cool. 

I know it's very early still, but this appears to be progressing with near perfection thus far. August was indeed a relative "break month", and now it's looking as though Sept will be potentially record warm for a large section of the country.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

In fall 2011, when I was a student at Drexel, I read this book for one of my classes: 

I remember somewhere in the book where they talk about the winter of 1957-58 being very snowy and cold. 

1957-58 SUCKED here. If i was alive Id have been furious . Detroit finished the season with 18.0" of snow (still stands as 9th least snowy winter on record). The east was having all the fun. After a rainy December the rest of winter was very dry. It holds the record for the lowest "max" 24-hour snowfall (1.8", set several times that winter). No other winter before or since has failed to receive 2.0" of snow in 24 hours. 

Two stories of that season- my grandparents wedding was Feb 15, 1958. I heard there was a "blizzard" on her wedding day. Pics showed what look like a few inches of snow. Grandma insisted she remembered a blizzard (you know how that goes lol). Sure enough, records showed the 1.8" snowfall on Feb 15/16 here, but on their honeymoon in Niagra Falls, there were several feet on the ground per pics. The other story, my mom was born March 20, 1958. One of the newspaper headlines that day(cold and flurries here, a trace) was about a massive snowstorm burying the east. And how we were "lucky" the storm bypassed us. 

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1957-58 SUCKED here. If i was alive Id have been furious . Detroit finished the season with 18.0" of snow (still stands as 9th least snowy winter on record). The east was having all the fun. After a rainy December the rest of winter was very dry. It holds the record for the lowest "max" 24-hour snowfall (1.8", set several times that winter). No other winter before or since has failed to receive 2.0" of snow in 24 hours. 

Two stories of that season- my grandparents wedding was Feb 15, 1958. I heard there was a "blizzard" on her wedding day. Pics showed what look like a few inches of snow. Grandma insisted she remembered a blizzard (you know how that goes lol). Sure enough, records showed the 1.8" snowfall on Feb 15/16 here, but on their honeymoon in Niagra Falls, there were several feet on the ground per pics. The other story, my mom was born March 20, 1958. One of the newspaper headlines that day(cold and flurries here, a trace) was about a massive snowstorm burying the east. And how we were "lucky" the storm bypassed us. 

 Here in the SE, 1957-8 was a top notch winter with very cold in Jan/Feb. along with a pretty rare 1” of snow way down here (in mid-Feb)! Savannah actually had a very rare 3 wintry precip events in JF, two of which were traces. ATL had a major winter storm in Feb. A near perfect El Niño for the Deep South! Maybe again in 2025-6??

[Stormchaserchuck1]

58 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

I know it's very early still, but this appears to be progressing with near perfection thus far. August was indeed a relative "break month", and now it's looking as though Sept will be potentially record warm for a large section of the country.

I would definitely bet on a warm October for the CONUS. The PDO also has a strong correlation in October:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Another thing with the -PNA roll forward, is it might support warming ENSO conditions in the late Winter/Spring:

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here in the SE, 1957-8 was a top notch winter with very cold in Jan/Feb. along with a pretty rare 1” of snow way down here (in mid-Feb)! Savannah actually had a very rare 3 wintry precip events in JF, two of which were traces. ATL had a major winter storm in Feb. A near perfect El Niño for the Deep South! Maybe again in 2025-6??

I think the mid Feb 1958 event was a widespread storm that fringed us up here and also grazed you, with deep enough cold, in the south, and slammed the east. The strong nino '57-58 winter had its signature mild December but then a frigid Feb. This is where we go from rainy and mild to cold suppression. Seems like no matter which playbook a strong nino follows, it's a surefire way to see a shitty snow season in the southern Great Lakes. BY FAR the worst of any other enso configuration. We still get snow, it's impossible not to, but while most other patterns find ways to give us snow, even when other places suffer, strong ninos do the opposite, repelling everything but scraps and maybe a good spring snowstorm. 

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would definitely bet on a warm October for the CONUS. The PDO also has a strong correlation in October:

Definitely expecting a mild October. I always prefer cold, but as long as we avoid record warmth, October is a month I don't mind a milder departure because the temps are still comfortable to cool most days, and lots of sun to enjoy the Fall colors. Warm October, cold December is a very common nina occurrence, which is why I'm really Interested to see how December will play out.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here in the SE, 1957-8 was a top notch winter with very cold in Jan/Feb. along with a pretty rare 1” of snow way down here (in mid-Feb)! Savannah actually had a very rare 3 wintry precip events in JF, two of which were traces. ATL had a major winter storm in Feb. A near perfect El Niño for the Deep South! Maybe again in 2025-6??

More likely 2026-27 or even 2027-28. El ninos don't form that quickly. Remember, they were hyping up an el nino in 2012-13, but it didn't form until 2014-15.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice +NAO signal in January with a Sept -PNA

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

More likely 2026-27 or even 2027-28. El ninos don't form that quickly. Remember, they were hyping up an el nino in 2012-13, but it didn't form until 2014-15.

Even though the El Nino development peaked around Labor Day in 2012, we still got the classic El Niño progression. Very warm December into mid-January before the pattern got colder in February. Then one of the greatest blizzards of all-time for Central LI north into Southern New England with Nemo in February. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

The idea is that high solar, which itself apparently contributes to atmospheric stability, may very well be a major contributing factor, not the sole factor.

 Was this stability forecasted? Anyone know? And can stability caused by high solar even be predicted by wx models?

Solar is definitely a factor... clear dichotomy between high and low solar with respect to tropical activity. Bluewave is a genius, but he loves to tie everything to CC....pretty sure that is where he is headed (Saharan rainfall increase) with downplaying the role of the solar cycle. Truth is that they probably both play a role.

I don't mean to criticize him either....but we all have certain biases and proclivities. Posters are like models...learn the tendencies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would definitely bet on a warm October for the CONUS. The PDO also has a strong correlation in October:

I remember October 2007 was very warm before it flipped for an epic December up here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Another thing with the -PNA roll forward, is it might support warming ENSO conditions in the late Winter/Spring:

CANSIPS shows this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even though the El Nino development peaked around Labor Day in 2012, we still got the classic El Niño progression. Very warm December into mid-January before the pattern got colder in February. Then one of the greatest blizzards of all-time for Central LI north into Southern New England with Nemo in February. 

Yea, that season still ended up behaving very much like an el Nino....some nice March snow, as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice +NAO signal in January with a Sept -PNA

This fits the pattern that I saw with respect to the NAO in westerly QBO La Nina with high solar.

[GaWx]

On 9/4/2024 at 4:57 AM, GaWx said:

 If you’re talking about the monthly NAO table that goes back to 1950 and had July at +1.46 (see link below), that won’t be anywhere close to a record high. Based on the dailies, I expect it will most likely be near the +0.4 to +0.6 range with a small chance to be as high as +0.7 to +0.75 or so. It still isn’t out at this very late hour but it could be released later today. Even if it hits the upper end +0.75, that would be only the 17th highest of 74 August NAOs since 1950. The record high is the +1.97 of 2018.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 I looked at August NAOs >+1 when JAS RONI wasn’t at a moderate or stronger Nino level:

1) 1955 (Niña) +1.07: Aug very active with 3H incl MH Connie; Sep also very active with 5H incl 3MH

2) 1967 +1.44: Aug very quiet but Sept active with 3H including MH Beulah

3) 1971 +1.55: Aug moderate activity; Sep very active including 4H, with one MH

4) 1976 +1.92: Aug very active with 4H including MH Belle; Sep active with 3H including 1 MH

5) 1983 +1.76: Aug active with 2H including MH Alicia; Sep pretty quiet

6) 1984 +1.15: Aug quiet; Sep active with 2H including MH Diana

7) 1991 +1.23: Aug only 1 NS but it was MH Bob; Sep 3 NS including MH Claudette

8) 1996 +1.02: Aug active with 3H including MH Edouard; Sep very active with 4 MH

9) 2018 +1.97: Aug quiet; Sep active with 3H including MH Florence

10) 2022 (Niña) +1.47: Aug very quiet (no NS); Sep very active with 4H including 2 MH

——————

So for these 10 seasons with strong Aug +NAO:

-Aug: 4 were quiet, 2 had moderate activity, and 4 were active. So, Aug was balanced as compared to climo.

-Sep: only one was quiet (1983), one had moderate activity (1991), and 8 were active.

-In summary regarding the 10 seasons with a strong Aug +NAO: none were shut down in both Aug and Sep, Aug was balanced between quiet and active, and Sep was mainly active. Thus, I see no discernible correlation between a +NAO in August and reduced hurricane activity.

 

Are -NAOs more common in Aug during La Niña? Here’s the Aug NAO when JAS RONI was -0.50 or colder:

1954: -1.90

1955: +1.07

1964: -1.77

1970: +0.10

1973: -0.06

1975: -0.26

1988: +0.04

1995: -0.69

1998: -0.02

1999: +0.39

2007: -0.14

2010: -1.22

2016: -1.65

2020: +0.12

2021: -0.28

2022: +1.47

 

So, tally for RONI based Niña JAS since 1950: 7 -NAO, 6 neutral, 3 +NAO;

AVG NAO  -0.3

 

For RONI based El Niño JAS:

1951: -0.22

1953: -0.71

1957: -0.55

1963: -0.64

1965: +0.45

1968: -0.66

1972: +1.32

1976: +1.92

1977: -0.28

1982: +0.26

1986: -1.09

1987: -0.83

1991: +1.23

1994: +0.38

1997: +0.83

2002: +0.38

2004: -0.48

2015: -0.76

2023: -1.16

So, tally for RONI based Niño JAS since 1950: 10 -NAO, 1 neutral NAO, 8 +NAO

AVG NAO 0.0

Followup: CPC Aug NAO came in at +0.63, about where I expected it. So, despite that other version of Aug NAO being at a record high for that version (over +3), this one was only moderately positive.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember October 2007 was very warm before it flipped.

Yeah, we got a record warm October, then the mudstorm happened the last weekend of the month. If not for the mudstorm, we probably would have had a drought during the 2007-08 winter.

Of course, November and December were cooler than average. Then, January-April were above average, but nothing really out of the ordinary.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, we got a record warm October, then the mudstorm happened the last weekend of the month. If not for the mudstorm, we probably would have had a drought during the 2007-08 winter.

Of course, November and December were cooler than average. Then, January-April were above average, but nothing really out of the ordinary.

My snowiest December on record.

[bluewave]

On 9/4/2024 at 11:19 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Im not sure yet on the idea the N ATL is playing a role in moving ITCZ north but feel the Mediterranean warming so much is definitely an effect from a north moving cell. What may be causing that northward progression im not too sure and I don't believe many can pin point something so easily just yet. Have those countries on the north end of the Mediterranean seen any type of increase in drought conditions? I know this is hard to tell in a climo like they have but would be interesting to see if that is the case.

As you know with most things in this science we don't know the outcome until it has happened several times over and get a better understanding of what caused it. 

New Mediterranean SST record for August. The Euro actually forecast the higher stability this summer over the MDR. So they will have to look at why that didn’t translate into a lower seasonal hurricane forecast matching the current record lull since mid-August. This reminds me of other seasonal forecasts from the Euro where it does very well with some seasonal forecast parameters and not well with others. 

 

[snowman19]

@Stormchaserchuck1  Looks like your idea that we go into a warmer than normal pattern in earnest again starting in September appears to be spot on. I think this fall (SON) ends up solidly warmer to much warmer than normal and also drier than normal
 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1  Looks like your idea that we go into a warmer than normal pattern in earnest again starting in September appears to be spot on. I think this fall (SON) ends up solidly warmer to much warmer than normal and also drier than normal
 

The 597 dm ridge forecast next few days is near the all-time record for this time of year. It actually shifts the pattern to much warmer in the East next week. This has been the repeating pattern of recent years with the record Aleutian Ridge followed by a big ridge several days later from the Great Lakes to Northeast.

[Typhoon Tip]

it starts in the asia dispersion/wpo

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1  Looks like your idea that we go into a warmer than normal pattern in earnest again starting in September appears to be spot on. I think this fall (SON) ends up solidly warmer to much warmer than normal and also drier than normal
 

Should be a decent December....enter Bluewave stressing the need for a disconnect followed by a slew of charts illustrating why it won't happen. 

[roardog]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Should be a decent December....enter Bluewave stressing the need for a disconnect followed by a slew of charts illustrating why it won't happen. 

Wasn’t it Raindance that showed previously how a Modoki Nina is actually correlated to a cold December in the US?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, roardog said:

Wasn’t it Raindance that showed previously how a Modoki Nina is actually correlated to a cold December in the US?

My research has shown that Modoki La Nina are often coldest in December, but not necessarily cold....whereas east based evens often get colder later.

But this event isn't Modoki, anyway.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

Followup: CPC Aug NAO came in at +0.63, about where I expected it. So, despite that other version of Aug NAO being at a record high for that version (over +3), this one was only moderately positive.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Big disparity between the 500mb heights over Iceland which were the lowest on record for record for the month of August.

 

 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big disparity between the 500mb heights over Iceland which were the lowest on record for record for the month of August.

 

 

Good. Better summer and into the fall before the inevitable rubber band snap sometime in winter.