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2024-2025 La Nina


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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The funny thing is the Euro did a great job with the U.S. summer temperature forecast. But the forecast of over 20 named storms and 200 ACE was too high in the tropical Atlantic. So it’s interesting that the model can hone in on one set of circumstances but completely miss another. 

As for next winter, we would need some type of mismatch which would mute or shift the predominant -PDO pattern all the seasonal models have. So not sure if what happened in the Atlantic will be relevant beyond some extra SST warmth and fewer wave breaking events in the North Atlantic from a large number of tropical systems. My guess is that the very high ACE years created these wave breaks which lead to more -NAO development and better snowfall outcomes. But we are missing that this year so far. 

We would need some type of big mismatch for next winter to shift off of this type of look. This summer featured one of the strongest ridges south of the Aleutians and near New England .So the seasonal models really focus in on the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge next winter. But as always we’ll need to see what actually happens with the atmosphere next winter to know if the models are onto the correct idea. At the very least it looks like this will be our 10th warmer than normal winter in a row for the Northeast in places like NYC. But the details including the magnitude of the warmth and how much snow are difficult to guess at before we get more clues in the coming months.
 

IMG_1012.thumb.png.c0b9ee8680ea7944387bbb020b09fbcc.png

IMG_1013.thumb.png.6591cfb046fd15726d4f04f8b859c05a.png

IMG_1014.thumb.png.92612260da418a31faf69e84132fe5d8.png


 

 

Yes, we have heard about 746 times about this mismatch needed to ever snow again below the latitude of Caribou, ME. I wasn't challenging anything. Simply speaking anecdotally.

I will go out on a limb and say its not going to be warmer or have less snow than last season....those images could be worse for NE. That looks like some pretty decent poleward Aleutian ridging.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, we have heard about 746 times about this mismatch needed to ever snow again below the latitude of Caribou, ME. I wasn't challenging anything. Simply speaking anecdotally.

I will do out on a limb and say its not going to be warmer or have less snow than last season.

Snowfall is always tricky going into a seasonal forecast since one storm can make a big difference. While NYC and Boston obviously missed out last few seasons, we did get that localized stationary snowband over Central NJ. So while the general temperature tendency can be easier to detect for the seasonal models, snowfall forecast is usually more challenging.

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Just now, bluewave said:

Snowfall is always tricky going into a seasonal forecast since one storm can make a big difference. While NYC and Boston obviously missed out last few seasons, we did get that localized stationary snowband over Central NJ. So while the general temperature tendency can be easier to detect for the seasonal models, snowfall can be tricky. 

Yes, this why snowflall has a ton of variance. But for say about the latitude of CNE points north, those charts don't even look that bad to me.

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The funny thing is the Euro did a great job with the U.S. summer temperature forecast. But the forecast of over 20 named storms and 200 ACE was too high in the tropical Atlantic. So it’s interesting that the model can hone in on one set of circumstances but completely miss another. 

As for next winter, we would need some type of mismatch which would mute or shift the predominant -PDO pattern all the seasonal models have. So not sure if what happened in the Atlantic will be relevant beyond some extra SST warmth and fewer wave breaking events in the North Atlantic from a large number of tropical systems. My guess is that the very high ACE years created these wave breaks which lead to more -NAO development and better snowfall outcomes. But we are missing that this year so far. 

We would need some type of big mismatch for next winter to shift off of this type of look. This summer featured one of the strongest ridges south of the Aleutians and near New England .So the seasonal models really focus in on the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge next winter. But as always we’ll need to see what actually happens with the atmosphere next winter to know if the models are onto the correct idea. At the very least it looks like this will be our 10th warmer than normal winter in a row for the Northeast in places like NYC. But the details including the magnitude of the warmth and how much snow are difficult to guess at before we get more clues in the coming months.
 

IMG_1012.thumb.png.c0b9ee8680ea7944387bbb020b09fbcc.png

IMG_1013.thumb.png.6591cfb046fd15726d4f04f8b859c05a.png

IMG_1014.thumb.png.92612260da418a31faf69e84132fe5d8.png


 

 

My point being that I will take what is posted above over this knowing how useless the NAO has been in the face of an uttelry hostile Pacific.

This plot is not dissimilar to the PNA

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The funny thing is the Euro did a great job with the U.S. summer temperature forecast. But the forecast of over 20 named storms and 200 ACE was too high in the tropical Atlantic. So it’s interesting that the model can hone in on one set of circumstances but completely miss another. 

As for next winter, we would need some type of mismatch which would mute or shift the predominant -PDO pattern all the seasonal models have. So not sure if what happened in the Atlantic will be relevant beyond some extra SST warmth and fewer wave breaking events in the North Atlantic from a large number of tropical systems. My guess is that the very high ACE years created these wave breaks which lead to more -NAO development and better snowfall outcomes. But we are missing that this year so far. 

We would need some type of big mismatch for next winter to shift off of this type of look. This summer featured one of the strongest ridges south of the Aleutians and near New England .So the seasonal models really focus in on the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge next winter. But as always we’ll need to see what actually happens with the atmosphere next winter to know if the models are onto the correct idea. At the very least it looks like this will be our 10th warmer than normal winter in a row for the Northeast in places like NYC. But the details including the magnitude of the warmth and how much snow are difficult to guess at before we get more clues in the coming months.
 

IMG_1012.thumb.png.c0b9ee8680ea7944387bbb020b09fbcc.png

IMG_1013.thumb.png.6591cfb046fd15726d4f04f8b859c05a.png

IMG_1014.thumb.png.92612260da418a31faf69e84132fe5d8.png


 

 

looks horrific and expected

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The mean seasonal RNA is not going to be that amplified again and there is nothing anybody can say that will convince me otherwise. Just out of sheer probability alone, nevermind La Nina being significantly weaker....regardless of how intense the PDO remains. Lipstick on a pig, certaintly, but it is what it is and I will take my chances relative to last season.

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this why snowflall has a ton of variance. But for say about the latitude of CNE points north, those charts don't even look that bad to me.

Sure. There can always be a big difference in snowfall for CNE and points north and NYC.

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My point being that I will take what is posted above over this knowing how useless the NAO has been in the face of an uttelry hostile Pacific.

This plot is not dissimilar to the PNA

That’s why it has been more important to get a favorable Pacific in 20-21 and Jan 22 than we got with the blocking patterns in Dec 22 and Mar 23. We used to be able to get by with a hostile Pacific with -AO -NAO like we had from the 50s into early 70s when the SSTs to our east were much colder. Now we just get the Greenland Block linking up with the Southeast Ridge around storm time.

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Sure. There can always be a big difference in snowfall for CNE and points north and NYC.

That’s why it has been more important to get a favorable Pacific in 20-21 and Jan 22 than we got with the blocking patterns in Dec 22 and Mar 23. We used to be able to get by with a hostile Pacific with -AO -NAO like we had from the 50s into early 70s when the SSTs to our east were much colder. Now we just get the Greenland Block linking up with the Southeast Ridge around storm time.

This is something I have come around on...I was skeptical of it a couple of years ago. However, I still don't think well placed blocking is as futile as it has appeared the past few years, as there also has been some shit luck involved.

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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is something I have come around on...I was skeptical of it a couple of years ago. However, I still don't think well placed blocking is as futile as it has appeared the past few years, as there also has been some shit luck involved.

The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC.

 

22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3

21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9

20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6

17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9

16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2

11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4

10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9

08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6

07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9

05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0

00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0

99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3

98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7

95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6

 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Haven't you posted on several occasions something to the effect that +NAO has been coinciding with +PNA and -NAO with RNA??

I analyzed pna nao cycles earlier in the season, it was something like 10-12% of the time did we have a +PNA/-NAO couplet the past 10 winters or so

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC.

 

22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3

21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9

20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6

17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9

16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2

11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4

10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9

08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6

07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9

05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0

00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0

99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3

98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7

95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6

 

Watch, NYC will get 10" this December and a trace the rest of the season.

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22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Watch, NYC will get 10" this December and a trace the rest of the season.

It would probably have to be an east-based la nina like 2021-22, but the mismatch happening in December, rather than January. ACY would hit a snow jackpot in December in this case, but nothing for the rest of the season.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Big difference from 2022-2023 is the WPO, as I intimated above and raindance has been hinting at all off season.

image.png.b1d92823fb733185902c7ca7442fd681.png

I am not too familiar with the WPO but obviously it makes a difference (there are SO many indicies, I used to think the only ones were the NAO and MJO lol).

This map is a good example of the battleground that a temp contrast can do. Minneapolis had one of their snowiest winters on record in 2022-23, being the battleground between warm & cold. We did ok in 2022-23 despite the warmth, finishing only slightly below avg in snowfall (and at that, snowfall was MUCH wetter and lower ratio than normal, so the precip was there). This is another example, and you have pointed it out as well, that regardless of warmth, there is a certain latitudinal line where once you go north of it, if you get the precip, you will get the snow. Snowcover often suffers far more than actual snowfall in northern locations in warm winters.

Another thing, you give the atmosphere the temp contrasts of a cold north and a warm south, and add in an active storm track, then you will have some great winter storms. Though I know we look better here in the great lakes than the east, I just dont think it will be as bad on the east coast as some make it sound.

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