40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 On 8/21/2024 at 6:47 AM, bluewave said: This was one of the strongest La Niña 500 mb summer patterns that we have ever experienced. In our older climate, a La Niña summer 500 mb pattern featured a ridge near Japan and south of the Aleutians. The Atlantic usually had a ridge east of New England. These 3 ridges this summer were some of the strongest we have observed. If this had been the winter with such a strong ridge near the Aleutians and near the East Coast, then it would have been among the warmest on record. So this is telling is that unless we can get some version of mismatch like in January 2022, the winter is going to be very mild again. Probably have to wait until October for some clues to see how the October early MJO indicator evolves. If the winter ridges turn out as exaggerated as the summer, then it will be a very mild winter again. So we need a mismatch along the lines of Jan 2022 with the MJO 8 and more +PNA to counter it. Without pushback we end up with 22-23 warmth again. Full disclosure.....gonna use this in my current blog piece. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not sure how early it was "obvious", but admittedly I only knew a fraction of the little that I know now, so....that was my first outlook attempt. If we're talking about 2013-14, then that one tipped its hand in July with the ridge building in the PNW. I mean, we got a big flip in the temperature pattern midway through the summer. The change in PDO pretty much sealed the deal. If we're talking about 2014-15, well that was just a continuation of the +PDO/PNW ridge. JFM 2014 and 2015 were the coldest this side of 1980. Even the summer of 2014 was cooler than average (the coldest since 2010, though some places were cooler last summer). The PNW ridge finally subsided in spring 2015 (which is why we got a very warm May here, and a cold May in most of the West). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: If we're talking about 2013-14, then that one tipped its hand in July with the ridge building in the PNW. I mean, we got a big flip in the temperature pattern midway through the summer. The change in PDO pretty much sealed the deal. If we're talking about 2014-15, well that was just a continuation of the +PDO/PNW ridge. JFM 2014 and 2015 were the coldest this side of 1980. Even the summer of 2014 was cooler than average (the coldest since 2010, though some places were cooler last summer). The PNW ridge finally subsided in spring 2015 (which is why we got a very warm May here, and a cold May in most of the West). I didn't really look at all of that back in 2013....I would just watch the models for snow in season and measure when it fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 The cold winters of 2014 and 2015: The rest of 2015 was warm, especially May, November, and December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: IMO the forecasts for 25-30 named storms are probably in peril It looks this season will have 5 named storms by September 1st as the Atlantic experiences break in the action for late August. All the seasons that have made it to 19 or more named storms since 1995 had at least 7 named storms by September 1st and most 11 or more. But the concern going forward is how warm the Gulf Of Mexico is. Any tropical wave that makes it in there could rapidly intensify. It only takes one major hitting a populated area to have a big hurricane season regardless of total numbers or ACE. But actual land impacts for any given season are very challenging to forecast before the season starts. 19 or more named storms since 1995 and storm count by September 1st 2024…..5 projected named storms by September 1st 2023…..11 named storms by September 1st and 20 total named storms 2021…..12 named storms by September 1st and 21 total named storms 2020….14 named storms by September 1st and 30 total named storms 2012….12 named storms by September 1st and 19 total named storms 2011….11 named storms by September 1st and 19 total named storms 2010….7 named storms by September 1st and 19 total named storms 2005….13 named storms by September 1st and 28 total named storms 1995….12 named storms by September 1st and 19 total named storms 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks this season will have 5 named storms by September 1st as the Atlantic experiences break in the action for late August. All the seasons that have made it to 19 or more named storms since 1995 had at least 7 named storms by September 1st and most 11 or more. But the concern going forward is how warm the Gulf Of Mexico is. Any tropical wave that makes it in there could rapidly intensify. It only takes one major hitting a populated area to have a big hurricane season regardless of total numbers or ACE. But actual land impacts for any given season are very challenging to forecast before the season starts. 19 or more named storms since 1995 and storm count by September 1st 2024…..5 projected named storms by September 1st 2023…..11 named storms by September 1st and 20 total named storms 2021…..12 named storms by September 1st and 21 total named storms 2020….14 named storms by September 1st and 30 total named storms 2012….12 named storms by September 1st and 19 total named storms 2011….11 named storms by September 1st and 19 total named storms 2010….7 named storms by September 1st and 19 total named storms 2005….13 named storms by September 1st and 28 total named storms 1995….12 named storms by September 1st and 19 total named storms My top analog years: 1998: 4 named storms by Aug. 30 (14 total named storms) 2007: 5 named storms by Aug. 30 (15 total named storms) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: My top analog years: 1998: 4 named storms by Aug. 30 (14 total named storms) 2007: 5 named storms by Aug. 30 (15 total named storms) One of my analogs, 01-02, had 17 tropical depressions, 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, ACE of 110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 So what do we know about the "Atlantic Nina". Does that even matter for us in winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Euro hinting at a cooler beginning, but a warm end, to September: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 50 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Euro hinting at a cooler beginning, but a warm end, to September: It seems the weeklies have been warm in the extended range whether it ends up that way or not (this summer). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 50 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It seems the weeklies have been warm in the extended range whether it ends up that way or not (this summer). Every month this year has been above normal at Buffalo with an average departure per month of +4.4 degrees. That includes August which so far has been the "coldest" month of the year in relation to average with a 0.0 departure. That likely changes to a positive departure with the incoming warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 2 hours ago, BlizzardWx said: So what do we know about the "Atlantic Nina". Does that even matter for us in winter? I think we're moving into the cold AMO transition. If you subtract out the cold AMO years from the warm AMO years in La Nina, the three areas of biggest change are very warm/very cold east of Japan, very warm/very cool by West Africa, very warm/very cold by NE North America. The cold AMO La Ninas tend to be snowier with severe (albeit brief) cold dumps into the SW US and Southern Plains. -PDO was roughly 1947-1976 -AMO was roughly 1964-1994 Some pretty severe and unusual cold-ENSO winters in the brief -PDO/-AMO period - ala 1964-65, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76. La Nina has a reputation for dryness out here. That's largely true, but if the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific remain cold, I'd imagine the air over the deserts would get exceptionally dry to the point that someone out here would see a winter with sporadic near to record cold lows. January 1971 got to -17F ln Albuquerque in a January that isn't even that cold if you look at the records - that month was nuts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Every month this year has been above normal at Buffalo with an average departure per month of +4.4 degrees. That includes August which so far has been the "coldest" month of the year in relation to average with a 0.0 departure. That likely changes to a positive departure with the incoming warm spell. No doubt it's been a warm year. It was just an observation I had, locally, that for the 2nd summer in a row, we had a lot of fantasy range heat that never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 8 hours ago, raindancewx said: I think we're moving into the cold AMO transition. If you subtract out the cold AMO years from the warm AMO years in La Nina, the three areas of biggest change are very warm/very cold east of Japan, very warm/very cool by West Africa, very warm/very cold by NE North America. The cold AMO La Ninas tend to be snowier with severe (albeit brief) cold dumps into the SW US and Southern Plains. -PDO was roughly 1947-1976 -AMO was roughly 1964-1994 Some pretty severe and unusual cold-ENSO winters in the brief -PDO/-AMO period - ala 1964-65, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76. La Nina has a reputation for dryness out here. That's largely true, but if the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific remain cold, I'd imagine the air over the deserts would get exceptionally dry to the point that someone out here would see a winter with sporadic near to record cold lows. January 1971 got to -17F ln Albuquerque in a January that isn't even that cold if you look at the records - that month was nuts. This may be the very beginning stages of an eventual flip to a negative AMO. We won’t know for sure until next summer. The transition stage normally starts in the tropical Atlantic first, then moves north, throughout the rest of the Atlantic over time. As of now, the AMO remains strongly positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 The Euro seasonal had a good summer forecast. The smaller cool spot was centered further north over the Midwest rather than down near Texas. This cooler in the middle and warmer near the coasts has been the summer temperature pattern since the 15-16 super El Niño. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 On 8/21/2024 at 6:47 AM, bluewave said: This was one of the strongest La Niña 500 mb summer patterns that we have ever experienced. In our older climate, a La Niña summer 500 mb pattern featured a ridge near Japan and south of the Aleutians. The Atlantic usually had a ridge east of New England. These 3 ridges this summer were some of the strongest we have observed. If this had been the winter with such a strong ridge near the Aleutians and near the East Coast, then it would have been among the warmest on record. So this is telling is that unless we can get some version of mismatch like in January 2022, the winter is going to be very mild again. Probably have to wait until October for some clues to see how the October early MJO indicator evolves. If the winter ridges turn out as exaggerated as the summer, then it will be a very mild winter again. So we need a mismatch along the lines of Jan 2022 with the MJO 8 and more +PNA to counter it. Without pushback we end up with 22-23 warmth again. This is an absolutely lethal match to the MEI analogs....uncoincidentally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro seasonal had a good summer forecast. The smaller cool spot was centered further north over the Midwest rather than down near Texas. This cooler in the middle and warmer near the coasts has been the summer temperature pattern since the 15-16 super El Niño. I thought last summer was rather cool around here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro seasonal had a good summer forecast. The smaller cool spot was centered further north over the Midwest rather than down near Texas. This cooler in the middle and warmer near the coasts has been the summer temperature pattern since the 15-16 super El Niño. How often is the Euro seasonal run? I see that one above is from Jan 5th. Was there one in Feb too for JJA and how did that do if it was run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 12 minutes ago, FPizz said: How often is the Euro seasonal run? I see that one above is from Jan 5th. Was there one in Feb too for JJA and how did that do if it was run? Monthly on the 5th. Here's a link to all free monthly products. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Long (Months)"]%2C"Type"%3A[]} 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 11 hours ago, raindancewx said: I think we're moving into the cold AMO transition. If you subtract out the cold AMO years from the warm AMO years in La Nina, the three areas of biggest change are very warm/very cold east of Japan, very warm/very cool by West Africa, very warm/very cold by NE North America. The cold AMO La Ninas tend to be snowier with severe (albeit brief) cold dumps into the SW US and Southern Plains. -PDO was roughly 1947-1976 -AMO was roughly 1964-1994 Some pretty severe and unusual cold-ENSO winters in the brief -PDO/-AMO period - ala 1964-65, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76. La Nina has a reputation for dryness out here. That's largely true, but if the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific remain cold, I'd imagine the air over the deserts would get exceptionally dry to the point that someone out here would see a winter with sporadic near to record cold lows. January 1971 got to -17F ln Albuquerque in a January that isn't even that cold if you look at the records - that month was nuts. I have really been warming up to the 1973-1974 analog..especially with respect to the Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 @bluewave or anyone....Do you have the piece on the new Pacific pattern designations...ie. Alaskan trough, etc...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Here is my early stab at the extra tropical Pacific....will be expanded upon in a more exhaustive segment this fall as part of the whole outlook. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-assessment-of-extra.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 I feel like there have been some low key hints that raindance is going to be a bit more aggressive for the east than some may suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like there have been some low key hints that raindance is going to be a bit more aggressive for the east than some may suspect. What do you mean by “a bit more aggressive”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: What do you mean by “a bit more aggressive”? Colder relative to what many susepect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Colder relative to what many susepect. Early winter might be cold (it's already turning cooler and feels like Fall), but it will also probably end after Mid January. Most of our snow will likely be in December and part of January Looks like the tropical season won't live up to expectations-- I never thought this was going to be some historic 2005/2020 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought last summer was rather cool around here.... 2023 and 2017 were the only summers a little cooler than average since the super El Niño in 2015. So we have had 9 out of 9 warmer to record warmer winters and 8 out of 10 warmer than average to record warm summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Early winter might be cold (it's already turning cooler and feels like Fall), but it will also probably end after Mid January. Most of our snow will likely be in December and part of January Looks like the tropical season won't live up to expectations-- I never thought this was going to be some historic 2005/2020 repeat. I think the early season will be more Pacfic driven..ie Aleutian ridging and -EPO/WPO, though the PV shouldn't be too stout....then mid season it goes very warm with less of an RNA before perhaps blocking/big RNA late season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the early season will be more Pacfic driven..ie Aleutian ridging and -EPO/WPO, though the PV shouldn't be too stout....then mid season it goes very warm with less of an RNA before perhaps blocking/big RNA late season. bookend winter perhaps Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Just now, LibertyBell said: bookend winter perhaps Ray? I think the only wild card for mid season is Bluewave's October MJO rule...if the MJO isn't amplifed in October, then we roast mid winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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