40/70 Benchmark Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This current August forecast for the DJF looks like a blend of the most recent La Niña forecasts from Aug 20,21, and 22. Similar to the 2021-2022 forecast, more poleward than the rest. Anyway, I said more stout than the 2016-2024 mean as in verificaiton, not the mean of all seasonal forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 This is splittling hairs, though....I of course agree that this winter doesn't look great for the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Another big EWB is on the way. Should see another big drop in region 3.4 the next couple of weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: Another big EWB is on the way. Should see another big drop in region 3.4 the next couple of weeks Still need to be cautious though as the models have not handled these well but with MJO movement this could actually hold. Lets see what it looks like after this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Just a quick update missed the 31st (whoops) and just kept the 4 day regime from the 1st and 5th of August. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 After that 4 day plunge of 0.5C, the OISST had quite the deadcat? bounce of nearly 0.4C: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Just a quick update missed the 31st (whoops) and just kept the 4 day regime from the 1st and 5th of August. That cold pool in the subsurface is getting stronger. A strong la nina is definitely coming at some point in the next 12 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 9 hours ago, GaWx said: After that 4 day plunge of 0.5C, the OISST had quite the deadcat? bounce of nearly 0.4C: Looks like another sizable region 3.4 drop with an MJO related trade wind burst is coming if the models are correct. Mentioned it the other day, but cold-neutral/borderline La Niña at the very least this winter is guaranteed and I am fairly confident there actually will be a La Niña. Also, blatantly obvious now that this is not going to be an east-based event. Basin wide? Hybrid? But definitely not east-based. Either way, a -ENSO winter coming Other things that are a looking like a very bet going into winter: strong -PDO (pretty much a certainty), -PMM, -IOD, ++AMO, +QBO (possibly strong), MJO 4-6, low arctic sea ice, AGW, *possible* volcanic effects on the stratosphere from the April eruptions? (likely minor), high solar flux/high geomag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Similar to the 2021-2022 forecast, more poleward than the rest. Anyway, I said more stout than the 2016-2024 mean as in verificaiton, not the mean of all seasonal forecasts. We’ll take any poleward help we can get since we just had the lowest -PDO June and July since 1950 at -3.16 and -2.97. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: We’ll take any poleward help we can get since we just had the lowest -PDO June and July since 1950 at -3.16 and -2.97. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 @Stormchaserchuck1, what is the current calculation for your subsurface NAO index? Could you hindcast if for the 1970-1971 winter season if you get time? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 low stratospheric warming projection huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right. The poleward extension of the Aleutian ridge last few days that produced the all-time heat in Northern Alaska was very impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Heat burst synoptics at very high latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1998 is a very good analog: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Similar to how the models underestimated the strength of the El Niño last year, I suspect they are underestimating the strength of the Nina. A moderate Nina is more likely than cold neutral. That -1C subsurface is going to come up eventually. As for this trade surge, the cold is extending into regions 3.4 and 4, which supports your point that this event won’t be east based and is developing differently than 2017-2018. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 5 minutes ago, George001 said: Similar to how the models underestimated the strength of the El Niño last year, I suspect they are underestimating the strength of the Nina. A moderate Nina is more likely than cold neutral. That -1C subsurface is going to come up eventually. Except for the Euro, all modeling was too cold and have been weakening the Nina all summer. Euro has been stuck at cold Neutral to weak Nina and will be right if medium to long range trade wind burst forecasts continue to fail. That's not to say the Roni will be anything other than a solid Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Except for the Euro, all modeling was too cold and have been weakening the Nina all summer. Euro has been stuck at cold Neutral to weak Nina and will be right if medium to long range trade wind burst forecasts continue to fail. That's not to say the Roni will be anything other than a solid Niña. The non Euro modeling was too cold, but things have been developing more quickly over the past couple of weeks. The weeklies are already in cold neutral territory for the enso 3.4 region (vs warm neutral about 3-4 weeks ago), and the negative subsurface anomalies have been strengthening again. I am extremely skeptical that the Euro will be right based on what has happened the past few weeks, as for it to be right the cooling in the ENSO 3.4 region needs to stall out for the next 4 months. Climatology doesn’t support that, historically after strong and super ninos you get la Nina’s, and they usually peak in late fall/early winter. Something I learned from tracking these past few years is climatology usually wins out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif latest CFS, mean of roughly -1.4C in the ENSO 3.4 region with a late Nov/early Dec peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 3 minutes ago, George001 said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif latest CFS, mean of roughly -1.4C in the ENSO 3.4 region with a late Nov/early Dec peak. If it goes that cold, roni will be strong nina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 17 minutes ago, George001 said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif latest CFS, mean of roughly -1.4C in the ENSO 3.4 region with a late Nov/early Dec peak. I feel pretty confident that this CFS will end up too cold with this -1.4 ONI prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 The 30 day SOI is at -9.22. I think that’s more negative than last year at this time with a strong Nino developing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 hour ago, George001 said: Similar to how the models underestimated the strength of the El Niño last year, I suspect they are underestimating the strength of the Nina. A moderate Nina is more likely than cold neutral. That -1C subsurface is going to come up eventually. As for this trade surge, the cold is extending into regions 3.4 and 4, which supports your point that this event won’t be east based and is developing differently than 2017-2018. There is and has been a very strong atmospheric La Niña background for months even without the ENSO region’s SSTs indicating so. That’s not going anywhere. As I said before, I’m very confident we have a La Niña. -ENSO winter a certainty. And this event was NEVER going to be east-based, not one model has shown that since spring and they still are not 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 On 8/6/2024 at 7:14 AM, bluewave said: This was actually the 2nd highest monthly +PNA on record leading to the record heat over Western North America. Very impressive that 5 of the strongest monthly +PNA readings were July La Ninas. Yeah, the American part of the measurements looks like +PNA. I think it's useful to give more weight to the Pacific though as the leading area, since you can have all kinds of patterns (AO, NAO) alter the N. American temps, or even local topographical effects. I find using the Pacific more useful when integrated with ENSO, PDO, etc.. but yeah the shortened wavelengths of July really shortened up and gave American a more +PNA look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @Stormchaserchuck1, what is the current calculation for your subsurface NAO index? Could you hindcast if for the 1970-1971 winter season if you get time? TIA. Hey @40/70 Benchmark (Ray?), I just looked at this yesterday. The reading for May - Aug 5 right now (63% of the way through) is about +0.50, making it a 50% chance of having the DJFM NAO -0.04 to +1.04. Meaning, we have just as good of a chance of seeing a strong Winter NAO of +1 over 4-months, as Neutral. The August 5th reading is +1.00, so it's looking like the index will continue to increase at least through this month, and possibly going into the final month, September. I would guess right now it finishes May-Sept around +0.70, making it a 50% chance that the DJFM NAO is +0.16 to +1.24! (Since inception, that 0.54 SD, is 9 wins, 9 loses, right at the original assessment in 2005.) Also remember, that means there are equal chances of the NAO going >+1.24 as < +0.16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 On 8/6/2024 at 12:28 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its good when its warm for the east, bad when its cold...sounds reductive, but that philosophy if fail-proof over the past 9 years. PDO will continue to be <-2 likely through the Fall.. hard to get that wild card -EPO for the Winter that I've been talking about when PDO is so negative.. we would need to see a new N. Pacific pattern start in Sept-Oct imo to carry through that "less extreme version of 13-14" possibility for the Winter. But I think +NAO probabilities does heighten that chance a little (neutral or neg EPO/WPO for the Winter). I like the 21-22 analog as the mix between the two versions of forecast possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 25 minutes ago, roardog said: The 30 day SOI is at -9.22. I think that’s more negative than last year at this time with a strong Nino developing. It's going to be hard to sustain a La Nina next year if the SOI never goes strongly positive for this event.. From 2020-2023, we had 37 consecutive months of +SOI! Then the Strong El Nino hit last year, and it seems to have changed the SOI phase a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Western ENSO subsurface around 120E is holding +2 to +3 anomalies.. 1 strong Kelvin wave could wipe out that central-ENSO-subsurface cold pool (which is -5c to -6 currently!) in the Fall. It will be interesting to see what happens.. Right now I am leaning toward a warm progression in ENSO after about November. This La Nina looks like it's likely peaking here as subsurface effects in the next few months. I could be wrong though, it's not always a linear movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Latest daily AAO: -4.2561 -4.6111 -4.2231 -4.0094 -4.0707 It looks like it's suppose to stay <-3 until Aug 15th: Based around the Winter solstice (Dec 21), here is the Dec-Jan correlation to July-Aug AAO.. there is a signal there, not coincidentally at the North Pole Makes me like the +NAO vs -AO/-EPO Winter potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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