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2024-2025 La Nina


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Just a quick update

June and July TAO data and Hovmollers. You can see that the Easterlies did try to have an impact on the pattern but have since been replaced with weaker trades. Maybe we are shifting the forcing like Bluewave had mentioned in earlier posts as possibility going forward.

ezgif.com-animated-gif-maker (15).gif

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Just a quick update

June and July TAO data and Hovmollers. You can see that the Easterlies did try to have an impact on the pattern but have since been replaced with weaker trades. Maybe we are shifting the forcing like Bluewave had mentioned in earlier posts as possibility going forward.

ezgif.com-animated-gif-maker (15).gif

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 The thing that continues to get my attention the most is the very stubborn moderate warm layer in the top 75-100 meters. It just won’t go away though it would have to (even though this is for only 2N to 2S) for this to end up La Niña per ONI. Actually, usually 2N to 2S has stronger anomalies than 5N to 5S in either El Niño or La Niña since the strongest anomalies in either tend to be nearest the equator.

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19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The thing that continues to get my attention the most is the very stubborn moderate warm layer in the top 75-100 meters. It just won’t go away though it would have to (even though this is for only 2N to 2S) for this to end up La Niña per ONI. Actually, usually 2N to 2S has stronger anomalies than 5N to 5S in either El Niño or La Niña since the strongest anomalies in either tend to be nearest the equator.

It’s interesting how strong the 500mb La Niña pattern is across North America is despite the official ONI lagging behind. This -EPO +PNA and strong WAR east of New England were associated which much cooler Nino 3.4 ONIs during the summers of 2018, 2021, and 2022. Those 3 so far are the best 500 mb matches this summer. So my guess is that the strong -PDO and WPAC warm pool are driving this robust La Niña background state at the present time. 
 

IMG_0642.gif.88bf25628f2e97405172e4fd8e398a3c.gif
 

IMG_0643.png.88943973b012eaf3fa27367e1b5b8900.png

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16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The thing that continues to get my attention the most is the very stubborn moderate warm layer in the top 75-100 meters. It just won’t go away though it would have to (even though this is for only 2N to 2S) for this to end up La Niña per ONI. Actually, usually 2N to 2S has stronger anomalies than 5N to 5S in either El Niño or La Niña since the strongest anomalies in either tend to be nearest the equator.

It is trying latest 100-180 subsurface reading shows we are closing in on levels we saw back in April.

heat-last-year.gif

wkxzteq_anm (1).gif

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8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

It is trying latest 100-180 subsurface reading shows we are closing in on levels we saw back in April.

wkxzteq_anm (1).gif

 Why is this subsurface animation in top 75-100 meters (solid BN E of 140W) disagreeing so much with the subsurface animation you posted earlier (moderate AN E of 140W)?

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On 7/26/2024 at 1:49 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, you got the high precip correlation of +NAO, and severe cold of -EPO. Hasn't happened together like that too many times historically. Dec 1983 is one, although it was a near neutral NAO. Dec 1989 had +NAO, but precip is usually better in Jan and Feb. 

I could never explain why it was wall to wall so cold and snowy. With near record ice cover the lakes didn't do anything, it was just storm after storm and bitter cold. On the days it didn't snow the strong winds were drifting snow everywhere. Truly THE winter of a lifetime. 

FB_IMG_1722188262663.jpg

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 The PDO is falling back down along with it. It’s back down to -2.15 on WCS, which means the NOAA version is probably back to near -3 or below now.

IMG_0029.png.493b2e0670776d4c74b7a168dc104c35.png

 

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2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Why is this subsurface animation in top 75-100 meters (solid BN E of 140W) disagreeing so much with the subsurface animation you posted earlier (moderate AN E of 140W)?

It could be many reasons. This version is 5N-5S, CPC maybe uses a different buoy source versus TAO, CPC may lag a bit to TAO display, etc. Unfortunately I do not have those answers other than TAO is sourced around 2N-2S versus CPC which is 5N-5S.

Just showing all the updates available to us.

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If a strong or super el nino is going to form, you'll be able to see it in the subsurface well in advance. I think we can all agree with the subsurface we have right now that there is pretty much no chance of a strong el nino happening in 2025-26. If a strong el nino were to form in 2026-27, you should see a warm pool (like the ones below) in the subsurface by the summer of 2025:

ta-eq_color.gif.f14e3e14b9a6ac76dea08b2d23873333.gif

ta-eq_color.gif.9f2ca3ac577e786367a86e01b26b873c.gif

The warm pools in the subsurface in June 2008 and June 2022 preceded the strong el ninos of 2009-10 and 2023-24, respectively.

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Latest CDC reanalysis SST map.. looks ugly, but we have had miracles like 2013 come from this:1-27.gif

With the NAO prediction area coming in very +, I think that changes the formula from the last few years. Since 2013, +NAO's in Nov-March have been correlating with -EPO/+PNA.. but the La Nina and seasonal trends from the past 7 years should keep the PNA negative. But I am starting to think we will see a lot of -EPO. In the northern areas of the CONUS (interior NE and Great Lakes), that is a favorable pattern for snow.. +NAO being a high precip correlation and -EPO being neutral precip and colder than average. We also haven't had a true +NAO Winter since 19-20. Here's a composite from the last 4 Winters.. it's been mostly -AO and -PNA:

1dd.png

This Winter I think we could even see a reversal from that map north of 45N, with the mean N. Pacific High Pressure being the only continuum.. 

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8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

But I am starting to think we will see a lot of -EPO. In the northern areas of the CONUS (interior NE and Great Lakes), that is a favorable pattern for snow..

Depends on the MJO. Frequent MJO 4-7s will get you -EPO/- PNAs at times when the Aleutian ridge becomes more poleward. A -EPO/-PNA is a warm pattern with a La Niña in the Northeast. This is when we hit 80° back in February 2018. In order to get it cold in the Northeast we need a -EPO +PNA like we got from December 2017 into early January 2018. But that required a MJO 8 pattern. 

 

IMG_0649.gif.762f1e82dd772b57d52ed1494a99bc96.gif

 

IMG_0650.gif.4bb55b889a5a34976e2153538c3b5e73.gif

 

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8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Latest CDC reanalysis SST map.. looks ugly, but we have had miracles like 2013 come from this:1-27.gif

With the NAO prediction area coming in very +, I think that changes the formula from the last few years. Since 2013, +NAO's in Nov-March have been correlating with -EPO/+PNA.. but the La Nina and seasonal trends from the past 7 years should keep the PNA negative. But I am starting to think we will see a lot of -EPO. In the northern areas of the CONUS (interior NE and Great Lakes), that is a favorable pattern for snow.. +NAO being a high precip correlation and -EPO being neutral precip and colder than average. We also haven't had a true +NAO Winter since 19-20. Here's a composite from the last 4 Winters.. it's been mostly -AO and -PNA:

1dd.png

This Winter I think we could even see a reversal from that map north of 45N, with the mean N. Pacific High Pressure being the only continuum.. 

How do you figure? The vast majority of DM seasons have been averaging positive, including last season...unless you mean exceedingly positive...

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8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

 We also haven't had a true +NAO Winter since 19-20.

2021   12    0.2885
 2022    1    1.0778
 2022    2    1.6830
 2022    3    0.7677
 
 2023   12    1.9365
 2024    1    0.2060
 2024    2    1.0894
 2024    3   -0.2141
 

So, 2021-2 DM NAO averaged +1.0.

So, 2023-4 DM NAO averaged +0.8

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii

 

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2 minutes ago, GaWx said:
2021   12    0.2885
 2022    1    1.0778
 2022    2    1.6830
 2022    3    0.7677
 
 2023   12    1.9365
 2024    1    0.2060
 2024    2    1.0894
 2024    3   -0.2141
 

So, 2021-2 DM NAO averaged +1.0.

So, 2023-4 DM NAO averaged +0.8

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii

 

Its like saying we're due for some MC continent forcing. :lol:

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19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. Cold-neutral coming. 01-02 analog 

I said it halts it for a bit. ;)

EDIT: I  should have added  that although I  haven't looked, I'd be surprised if Enso 4 was as warm as it is now, and that would have an effect on sensible weam

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