2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, I'm glad you're getting it. +NAO/-EPO is a pretty above average precip pattern for you.. -EPO is -0.1, and +NAO is +0.5. Together, they do have +snowfall correlation in the Northeast. Usually you have to sacrifice cold air for dryness.. -EPO isn't too bad in this regard:

If we get DM -WPO/-EPO and modestly to moderately DM +NAO and -PNA with volatility, I bet many would be content.

[brooklynwx99]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

13-14 also had a Strong Kelvin wave in the Winter, giving us Weak El Nino conditions in the subsurface. And the PDO was +. Like it or not, the PDO has correlated strongly to the PNA/EPO pattern for a long time. I think the "we're due for -EPO" could translate to the development of a subsurface El Nino during the Winter season, while the surface is Neutral. But we have a long way to go this year for that to be the case. The TAO/Triton maps are currently holding -5c anomalies under the central-subsurface. 

13-14 actually averaged a PDO of -0.68 for DJF 2014. negative, but trending positive and likely not as negative as we'll see this year. 14-15 was the big +PDO winter

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

13-14 actually averaged a PDO of -0.68 for DJF 2014. negative, but trending positive and likely not as negative as we'll see this year. 14-15 was the big +PDO winter

The 14-15 PDO wasn’t just positive, it was severely positive and it directly lead to the insane -EPO/-WPO/+PNA blocking that winter. There was also an El Niño

[Stormchaserchuck1]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

13-14 actually averaged a PDO of -0.68 for DJF 2014. negative, but trending positive and likely not as negative as we'll see this year. 14-15 was the big +PDO winter

Interesting. SSTs at this time in 2013 actually didn't look too far from what we have now

@40/70 Benchmark Notice the New Foundland warm pool.. and 13-14 was actually a very +NAO Winter, but it correlated with the -EPO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Interesting. SSTs at this time in 2013 actually didn't look too far from what we have now

@40/70 Benchmark Notice the New Foundland warm pool.. and 13-14 was actually a very +NAO Winter, but it correlated with the -EPO. 

I could see a toned down version of that winter, but as Brooklyn just pointed out, the extra tropical Pacific should be more hostile this go around.

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Interesting. SSTs at this time in 2013 actually didn't look too far from what we have now

@40/70 Benchmark Notice the New Foundland warm pool.. and 13-14 was actually a very +NAO Winter, but it correlated with the -EPO. 

Besides the PDO difference, which was already pointed out, you didn’t have the massive WPAC warm pool altering the MJO forcing 

[FPizz]

I appreciate all the posts here.  Easily my favorite thread to read. Good work all of you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I appreciate all the posts here.  Easily my favorite thread to read. Good work all of you.

I can't for the life of me figure out why snowman is still 5 PPD....and I honestly mean that. Sure, he has somewhat of a bias, but I think most of us with a pulse do. He brings alot to the table....well, as much as the 5PPD limitation permits, anyway.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

13-14 actually averaged a PDO of -0.68 for DJF 2014. negative, but trending positive and likely not as negative as we'll see this year. 14-15 was the big +PDO winter

The raw PDO values didn’t work that winter since the actual spatial SST anomaly in 13-14 was one of the strongest composite +PDO patterns on record in terms of the cold pool aspect. Notice the classic +PDO cold pool from Japan to north of Hawaii. The warm blob off the Pacific Northwest associated with the TNH pattern may have been why the raw PDO didn’t match the SST composite. Since the warmest SSTs were just off the coast instead of right along it. So due to the record 13-14 TNH pattern, the typical +PDO trough was centered over the Great Lakes instead of New England. The pattern shifted further east in 14-15 resembling the canonical +PDO. But both seasons shared the record cold patterns downstream of the record NE PAC blocking ridge. So the cold pool near Japan and Hawaii was established a year before the raw +PDO values caught up. Plus there was actually a cold SST pool over the MJO 5 region near the Maritime Continent. So it’s not hard to see why those were such memorable winters. 
 

13-14 +PDO cold pool from Japan to north of Hawaii with record TNH distorting typical NE PAC SST +PDO response

Classic +PDO signature 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If Nino 4 maintains its warm anomalies through the Fall and Winter, we could be looking at another Strong El Nino in the next couple of years, or "El Nino state", I think. The SOI becomes more important now, imo. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today’s SOI is at +2. The models suggest that the SOI will peak in the +15 to +20 range on Fri (7/26). However, it then looks to fall back considerably as a strong low passes S of Tahiti early next week with a progged drop to ~-20 7/29-30. This all translates to July SOI as a whole coming in ~-3 to -4. That will continue the string of neutral months since Mar. There has yet to be a Ninaish SOI (say +5+). We’ll see whether or not August is the first one.

 The prior transitions from Nino to Niña were similarly slow in 2016, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1983, 1970, and 1954. All of those peaked only weak or low end moderate La Niña on an ONI basis except the strong of 2007. But the transitions in 2010, 1998, 1988, 1973, and 1964 already had solidly +SOI by May or June. Of those faster transitions, all ended up with a strong ONI based La Nina peak except the weak peak of 1964. 

 So what this all tells me is that due to them tending to be a leading indicator, recent months of SOIs are favoring a weak to low end moderate Niña peak later this year at most vs high end moderate to strong (ONI basis):

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

The 1954 one may have been a weak la nina the first year, but it eventually peaked as a strong la nina in the second (1955-56). That transition was years in the making. The preceding el nino technically peaked as a moderate in 1951-52, before becoming disjointed in 1952-54.

I wonder what the subsurface looked like in summer 1954, and if it had that cool pool that is present in both 2007 and this summer.

[so_whats_happening]

37 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The 1954 one may have been a weak la nina the first year, but it eventually peaked as a strong la nina in the second (1955-56). That transition was years in the making. The preceding el nino technically peaked as a moderate in 1951-52, before becoming disjointed in 1952-54.

I wonder what the subsurface looked like in summer 1954, and if it had that cool pool that is present in both 2007 and this summer.

 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The raw PDO values didn’t work that winter since the actual spatial SST anomaly in 13-14 was one of the strongest composite +PDO patterns on record in terms of the cold pool aspect. Notice the classic +PDO cold pool from Japan to north of Hawaii. The warm blob off the Pacific Northwest associated with the TNH pattern may have been why the raw PDO didn’t match the SST composite. Since the warmest SSTs were just off the coast instead of right along it. So due to the record 13-14 TNH pattern, the typical +PDO trough was centered over the Great Lakes instead of New England. The pattern shifted further east in 14-15 resembling the canonical +PDO. But both seasons shared the record cold patterns downstream of the record NE PAC blocking ridge. So the cold pool near Japan and Hawaii was established a year before the raw +PDO values caught up. Plus there was actually a cold SST pool over the MJO 5 region near the Maritime Continent. So it’s not hard to see why those were such memorable winters. 
 

13-14 +PDO cold pool from Japan to north of Hawaii with record TNH distorting typical NE PAC SST +PDO response

Classic +PDO signature 

 

 

 

 

13-14 was as classic a +TNH pattern as you will ever see. Since 15-16, we have seen -TNH patterns dominating 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

Wow, almost opposite of now! Now has strong cold below top warm layer. June of 1954 had strong warmth below cold layer.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

13-14 was as classic a +TNH pattern as you will ever see. Since 15-16, we have seen -TNH patterns dominating 

95-96 was also one of the strongest +PDO composite patterns we have seen. Notice the great cold pool from Japan to north of Hawaii. Also having the cold pool near the Maritime Continent shut down the warmer MJO 4-6 phases that winter. 
 

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

95-96 was also one of the strongest +PDO composite patterns we have seen. Notice the great cold pool from Japan to north of Hawaii. Also having the cold pool near the Maritime Continent shut down the warmer MJO 4-6 phases that winter. 
 

Good points. 1995-96 was the complete opposite of what we are seeing now…+PDO, +PMM and WPAC cold pool.  Contrast that with the present…strong -PDO, -PMM, WPAC warm pool with MJO 4-6 dominating. Night and day. The current trend toward a -IOD with a La Niña is only going to further support Maritime Continent convection and MJO 4-6

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good points. 1995-96 was the complete opposite of what we are seeing now…+PDO, +PMM and WPAC cold pool.  Contrast that with the present…strong -PDO, -PMM, WPAC warm pool with MJO 4-6 dominating. Night and day. The current trend toward a -IOD with a La Niña is only going to further support Maritime Continent convection and MJO 4-6

The only aspect of 1995 that has value is using it as an ONI analog, but that doesn't mean very much in the grad scheme of things.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only aspect of 1995 that has value is using it as an ONI analog, but that doesn't mean very much in the grad scheme of things.

Yea I mean that’s pretty much the only thing lol besides those differences, we can keep going…QBO, solar, the AMO wasn’t out of control positive, no New Foundland warm pool, a true tripole developed in the Atlantic 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea I mean that’s pretty much the only thing lol besides those differences, we can keep going…QBO, solar, the AMO wasn’t out of control positive, no New Foundland warm pool, a true tripole developed in the Atlantic 

I agree...two completely different hemispheric landscapes.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good points. 1995-96 was the complete opposite of what we are seeing now…+PDO, +PMM and WPAC cold pool.  Contrast that with the present…strong -PDO, -PMM, WPAC warm pool with MJO 4-6 dominating. Night and day. The current trend toward a -IOD with a La Niña is only going to further support Maritime Continent convection and MJO 4-6

Yeah, now we have the continuing record marine heatwaves east of Japan and Canada.

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

I was not expecting the subsurface to look like that, especially after 3 years of mostly el nino. I would have thought there would be a strong cold layer below it.

Amazing to think that a strong la nina could develop with this subsurface.

[FPizz]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

Are these reconstructed or were we actually measuring back in 1954?  If not, when was the reconstructed data done?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, now we have the continuing record marine heatwaves east of Japan and Canada.

 

 

peppeRONI may just overwhelm the meal this year

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Maybe some activity in the Atlantic: 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Maybe some activity in the Atlantic: 

The EURO has been on again, off again since 18z last night. The GFS on the other hand, wants nothing at all to do with it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

We did have an "El Nino pattern" that June with a +PNA and warm anomaly over the Arctic

Do you have a link to those older subsurface maps? 

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, FPizz said:

Are these reconstructed or were we actually measuring back in 1954?  If not, when was the reconstructed data done?

I believe reconstructed but never really dove into it too much as they are fairly accurate for many of the years in the satellite era. Here is the site if you wanna dive more into it. 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We did have an "El Nino pattern" that June with a +PNA and warm anomaly over the Arctic

Do you have a link to those older subsurface maps? 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

This goes to ~1947

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The EURO has been on again, off again since 18z last night. The GFS on the other hand, wants nothing at all to do with it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Im cautious with the GFS it has in fact pushed a more Euro like scenario as we move through time, so caution to the wind. It is a pretty potent wave coming off Africa right now and will be tough to see if it can develop for several days but the better environment is creeping slowly into the Atlantic as we move into August. 

I do expect at least one EPAC system to form though (potentially rather weak?) before we get things going into the Atlantic. I believe after the first weekend of August we should get the ball rolling a bit but that is almost 2 weeks out.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Based on the link, it looks like the subsurface stayed warm throughout the entire triple la nina, and expanded in the year leading into the strong el nino.

1955 (year leading into the strong la nina - amazing how this could form at the same time with such a warm subsurface): 

 

1956 (leading into the final year of the triple la nina, a weak la nina year): 

 

1957 (the year leading into the strong la nina - many years of warm subsurface finally bubbling up to the surface): 

[brooklynwx99]

I have some prelim analogs. tried to cast a rather wide net and it'll get whittled down as the summer goes on

Going with 2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2008, 1999, 1998, 1988, 1983. Years in bold are doubly weighted.

Overall, looked at ONI/RONI, PDO, QBO, summer 500mb so far, and solar, weighted in that order. 

Pretty happy with the way these look. Dec has some blocking and a more poleward Aleutian ridge that's often the case in initially east-based Ninas. We then transition to a torch by Feb as the Nina migrates to a more central-based look.