2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would take the under on that. 

You would go with 50" with a La Nina/+NAO? +NAO's are wetter for you than warmer, but that really only makes a +snow difference right in the middle of Winter, mid to late January. 

You may be able to luck into a snowy pattern if the subsurface Nina moderates, and we go Neutral, then maybe -EPO, but it's still kind of far out to see if that will happen.. A lot of the roll forwards are like +3 to +5F for you. 

Why are you focusing on the upper portion of that range? Hell, I had 42" in 1998-1999....and that was whiffing on a blizzard that skirted the cape.

[snowman19]

You beat me to it lol yea, that winter had the weaker -PDO and low solar, it also did not have the inferno New Foundland warm pool to go along with the +AMO. I believe it may have been -QBO too?, don’t have the time to look it up right now though

I stand corrected, it was Nina/+QBO/low solar, so the 3rd most likely to produce a SSW and or blocking….Nino/-QBO/low solar being the most likely and Nina/+QBO/high solar being the least likely

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Follow up, which explains the very strong La Niña atmospheric response we are seeing, which @bluewave has been discussing. @40/70 Benchmark RONI:

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

I think you will appreciate the piece that I just finished...will lost later after proof read, etc. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I mean, if you looked at the subsurface, it was pretty obvious that a full-fledged la nina was developing. We're going to reach the strong la nina threshold at some point between the fall/winter 2024-25 and fall/winter 2025-26. I'll be absolutely shocked if 2024-25 and 2025-26 aren't both la ninas.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I mean, if you looked at the subsurface, it was pretty obvious that a full-fledged la nina was developing. We're going to reach the strong la nina threshold at some point between the fall/winter 2024-25 and fall/winter 2025-26. I'll be absolutely shocked if 2024-25 and 2025-26 aren't both la ninas.

I would be surprised. With an active Solar Max, I think we are countering all that we saw from 2000-2022, and trying to flip the long term phase to El Nino. 

Nino 4 has maintained almost Weak El Nino status despite 5 months of cold subsurface anomalies, and now this is developing:

This long term trend for Nino 4 to increase, (setting records pretty easily last year) is setting the tone, and will make it hard for another year of La Nina, in my opinion. Maybe borderline Weak-Nina at the max. We also haven't seen the Sun this active since the late-1990s: It has a 0.1 El Nino correlation. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I stand corrected, it was Nina/+QBO/low solar, so the 3rd most likely to produce a SSW and or blocking….Nino/-QBO/low solar being the most likely and Nina/+QBO/high solar being the least likely

That's correct. 

We have also see the edges of a strong 10mb vortex, at 500mb flux a -PNA, during La Nina/+QBO's, and +PNA during El Nino/-QBO's over the last 20 years. Not really enough data yet to see if this is a correlated thing. But when we are getting -NAO periods in La Nina/+QBO, we are getting a very strong -PNA, and sometimes +epo, at the same time to counter it, during the cold season. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ENSO climatology +years after Strong El Nino's, and +years after 4/5 La Nina years looks like this (blue line):

Since the development of the internet, I have seen many things that had a ++time tendency to happen, happen closer to the now-time. Something that has +3-5 years likelihood to happen, I would say could start to impact years +1-2.. at least neutralizing the La Nina potential. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Quick update on the developing La Niña.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/enso-proving-deceptive-once-again.html

[raindancewx]

I'm hoping one of these years ends up like 2013-14. Traditional Nino 3.4 measures get to 26.2C / -0.3C or whatever. But RONI is much lower, but it ends up acting like a Neutral even though the relative basis implies it's a Nina. If you all got 2-3x snow out of that kind of outcome I think everyone on here would permanently lose interest in the relative measures.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm hoping one of these years ends up like 2013-14. Traditional Nino 3.4 measures get to 26.2C / -0.3C or whatever. But RONI is much lower, but it ends up acting like a Neutral even though the relative basis implies it's a Nina. If you all got 2-3x snow out of that kind of outcome I think everyone on here would permanently lose interest in the relative measures.

 

13-14 also had a Strong Kelvin wave in the Winter, giving us Weak El Nino conditions in the subsurface. And the PDO was +. Like it or not, the PDO has correlated strongly to the PNA/EPO pattern for a long time. I think the "we're due for -EPO" could translate to the development of a subsurface El Nino during the Winter season, while the surface is Neutral. But we have a long way to go this year for that to be the case. The TAO/Triton maps are currently holding -5c anomalies under the central-subsurface. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm hoping one of these years ends up like 2013-14. Traditional Nino 3.4 measures get to 26.2C / -0.3C or whatever. But RONI is much lower, but it ends up acting like a Neutral even though the relative basis implies it's a Nina. If you all got 2-3x snow out of that kind of outcome I think everyone on here would permanently lose interest in the relative measures.

 

Nothing is a silver bullet, but the RONI is another tool that has some utility when used in the proper context.

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

13-14 also had a Strong Kelvin wave in the Winter, giving us Weak El Nino conditions in the subsurface. And the PDO was +. Like it or not, the PDO has correlated strongly to the PNA/EPO pattern for a long time. I think the "we're due for -EPO" could translate to the development of a subsurface El Nino during the Winter season, while the surface is Neutral. But we have a long way to go this year for that to be the case. The TAO/Triton maps are currently holding -5c anomalies under the central-subsurface. 

Something has to work out sooner rather than later for the NE.

[snowman19]

Now that the IOD is expected to turn negative, it lends even more support to Maritime Continent convection (MJO 4-6).

-IOD/La Niña favors eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing  @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave
 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something has to work out sooner rather than later for the NE.

Moderate el ninos (+1 to +1.4C) seem to be the sweet spot for cold/snow. 76-77, 77-78, and 02-03 are very good examples. The only one that really didn't work out was 94-95, and even then, we got one decent month of cold/snow in February out of it.

I got to think we're well overdue for a moderate el nino. We haven't had one since 02-03.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Moderate el ninos (+1 to +1.4C) seem to be the sweet spot for cold/snow. 76-77, 77-78, and 02-03 are very good examples. The only one that really didn't work out was 94-95, and even then, we got one decent month of cold/snow in February out of it.

I got to think we're well overdue for a moderate el nino. We haven't had one since 02-03.

The first two were weak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Historically speaking, weak El Nino has been the wheelhouse for SNE and moderate for the mid atlantic because they require more of a STJ influence.

[GaWx]

Today’s SOI is at +2. The models suggest that the SOI will peak in the +15 to +20 range on Fri (7/26). However, it then looks to fall back considerably as a strong low passes S of Tahiti early next week with a progged drop to ~-20 7/29-30. This all translates to July SOI as a whole coming in ~-3 to -4. That will continue the string of neutral months since Mar. There has yet to be a Ninaish SOI (say +5+). We’ll see whether or not August is the first one.

 The prior transitions from Nino to Niña were similarly slow in 2016, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1983, 1970, and 1954. All of those peaked only weak or low end moderate La Niña on an ONI basis except the strong of 2007. But the transitions in 2010, 1998, 1988, 1973, and 1964 already had solidly +SOI by May or June. Of those faster transitions, all ended up with a strong ONI based La Nina peak except the weak peak of 1964. 

 So what this all tells me is that due to them tending to be a leading indicator, recent months of SOIs are favoring a weak to low end moderate Niña peak later this year at most vs high end moderate to strong (ONI basis):

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s SOI is at +2. The models suggest that the SOI will peak in the +15 to +20 range on Fri (7/26). However, it then looks to fall back considerably as a strong low passes S of Tahiti early next week with a progged drop to ~-20 7/29-30. This all translates to July SOI as a whole coming in ~-3 to -4. That will continue the string of neutral months since Mar. There has yet to be a Ninaish SOI (say +5+). We’ll see whether or not August is the first one.

 The prior transitions from Nino to Niña were similarly slow in 2016, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1983, 1970, and 1954. All of those peaked only weak or low end moderate La Niña on an ONI basis except the strong of 2007. But the transitions in 2010, 1998, 1988, 1973, and 1964 already had solidly +SOI by May or June. Of those faster transitions, all ended up with a strong ONI based La Nina peak except the weak peak of 1964. 

 So what this all tells me is that due to them tending to be a leading indicator, recent months of SOIs are favoring a weak to low end moderate Niña peak later this year at most vs high end moderate to strong (ONI basis):

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Total agreement and said the same thing in my blog post yesterday. However, I believe the true intensity of this particular La Nina event will be a healthy moderate and perhaps even nearing strong. The inverse of last year's El Nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

From July 2020 to April 2023, we had 37 straight months of +SOI. This was associated with 3 years of La Nina conditions. 

June 1998 - April 1999 had 11 straight months of >1.0 SOI [CPC], which preceded multi-year La Nina conditions. 

March 1973 - October 1974 had 20 straight months of +SOI, which also preceded multi-year La Nina conditions. 

If the SOI doesn't rise in the coming months, Nino 4 SST is not really going to drop that much. This could ultimately form a subsurface warm pool in the western region, which would favor the rebound of the subsurface La Nina conditions in the Fall/Winter, and goes against the continuation of La Nina into next year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something has to work out sooner rather than later for the NE.

The ENSO state, of La Nina or not, is extra sensitive this year, because the QBO should be strongly positive for the Winter. Moderate+ La Nina's with +QBOS have a strong 10mb correlation, but this is not so heavy when the event is only Weak. 

My NAO index, based on N. Atlantic SSTs is currently coming in at +0.50 for DJFM, but there has been a strong correlation since 2013, and stronger since 2019, for -NAO to happen with -PNA/+EPO and +NAO to happen with +PNA/-EPO. If we keep this strong +NAO going into Winter (and look how it picked up after those sun spikes in May!), it may favor a weaker La Nina-N. Pacific pattern, which would fit possible ENSO negative subsurface rebounding or shifting east through the Fall.. It could be possible that this was a ultimately a Spring/Summer "Moderate La Nina" (strong H5 correlation), but maybe just Weak in the extended..

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The ENSO state, of La Nina or not, is extra sensitive this year, because the QBO should be strongly positive for the Winter. Moderate+ La Nina's with +QBOS have a strong 10mb correlation, but this is not so heavy when the event is only Weak. 

My NAO index, based on N. Atlantic SSTs is currently coming in at +0.50 for DJFM, but there has been a strong correlation since 2013, and stronger since 2019, for -NAO to happen with -PNA/+EPO and +NAO to happen with +PNA/-EPO. If we keep this strong +NAO going into Winter (and look how it picked up after those sun spikes in May!), it may favor a weaker La Nina-N. Pacific pattern, which would fit possible ENSO negative subsurface rebounding or shifting east through the Fall.. It could be possible that this was a ultimately a Spring/Summer "Moderate La Nina" (strong H5 correlation), but maybe just Weak in the extended..

This makes sense to me because while I do not feel that the NAO will be wall-to-wall positive, I think that it will be the Pacific side that is the primary driver if this coming winter is to be saved in the aggregate. I know raindance has been harping on a -WPO, which would also align with this...especially if we crank that ACE.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Btw, the Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere warming really correlated to -AAO conditions +time: 

It peaked as 10mb warming July 6-19. I estimated in the N. Hemisphere in early-mid January, it takes +20-25 days for greatest -AO effects. This same time lag in effect seems to have fit perfectly here. 

[snowman19]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes sense to me because while I do not feel that the NAO will be wall-to-wall positive, I think that it will be the Pacific side that is the primary driver if this coming winter is to be saved in the aggregate. I know raindance has been harping on a -WPO, which would also align with this...especially if we crank that ACE.

Didn’t Raindance only predict a Aug-Oct -WPO or something like that? And as far as your musing that even if the ONI ends up being weak, that this Niña will behave atmospherically like a moderate or strong event this winter, I couldn’t agree more. That is one thing I’m very sure about

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Didn’t Raindance only predict a Aug-Oct -WPO or something like that? And as far as your musing that even if the ONI ends up being weak, that this Niña will behave atmospherically like a moderate or strong event this winter, I couldn’t agree more. That is one thing I’m very sure about

One thing that blows me away is the PDO correlation to NW Canada temps in the Fall season: 

Being a water index, the PDO you would think is heavily influenced in the now-time by conditions over the waters.. but the land area has a higher correlation! meaning.. it has some extra-effect. 

>0.6 over a 73-year period is nothing to sneeze at. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Didn’t Raindance only predict a Aug-Oct -WPO or something like that? And as far as your musing that even if the ONI ends up being weak, that this Niña will behave atmospherically like a moderate or strong event this winter, I couldn’t agree more. That is one thing I’m very sure about

Yes. He hasn't predicted a -WPO winter....just implied that its very possible.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. He hasn't predicted a -WPO winter....just implied that its very possible.

The EPO usually flips, albeit briefly, after a sustained strong phase.. 

Here's an example: We had a 8-day +EPO period July 10-17 that gave us very warm temperatures in the East

Now it flipped for about 6 days. There are all kind of examples of this throughout the history.. The EPO is probably the most "we're due" region of the northern hemisphere

Here's the Dec - mid July EPO to date:

Could it flip in the Fall-Winter? maybe

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The EPO usually flips, albeit briefly, after a sustained strong phase.. 

Here's an example: We had a 8-day +EPO period July 10-17 that gave us very warm temperatures in the East

Now it flipped for about 6 days. There are all kind of examples of this throughout the history.. The EPO is probably the most "we're due" region of the northern hemisphere

Here's the Dec - mid July EPO to date:

Could it flip in the Fall-Winter? maybe

I could totally see us salvaging winter due to the EPO/WPO....and considering the NAO + will average, that would probably entail some decent PNA flexes per your work. And I don't mean 2014 or 1995 when I say "salvage"....

I think from about my area near the NH border and up could do well in that scenario, but points south would probably be limited by the EPO...maybe a 2007-2008 like gradient? Qualitative comp, not quanitative.....I don't expect 140" in Concord, NH.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could totally see us salvaging winter due to the EPO/WPO....and considering the NAO + will average, that would probably entail some decent PNA flexes per your work. And I don't mean 2014 or 1995 when I say "salvage"....

I think from about my area near the NH border and up could do well in that scenario, but points south would probably be limited by the EPO...maybe a 2007-2008 like gradient? Qualitatively comp, not qualitative.....I don't expect 140" in Concord, NH.

Yeah, I'm glad you're getting it. +NAO/-EPO is a pretty above average precip pattern for you.. -EPO is -0.1, and +NAO is +0.5. Together, they do have +snowfall correlation in the Northeast. Usually you have to sacrifice cold air for dryness.. -EPO isn't too bad in this regard: