2024-2025 La Nina

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Why does that look so cold on the equator, near and W of Hawaii, and in the S Pac?

 Here’s the latest CRW, which looks much closer to reality:

Maybe it's the 91-20 base period? They used to use 1950-1995 or 1950-2010 averages. 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe it's the 91-20 base period? I know they didn't always have it so close and bunched like that. They used to use 1950-1995 or 1950-2010 averages. 

Even with it using 1991-20 base, it looks too cold. The oceans are very warm dominated vs 1991-20 as they’re near record highs overall as you know. Your map shows a much more balanced look.

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well this is what it looks like right now

Nino 4 minus Nino 3 is a pretty high reading. That warmth near the Philippines will likely not cool in time for the Winter.. 

Since year 2000, Nino 4 (warm) minus Nino 1.2 (cool) has been in a league of its own. 

Is that CDAS based? That’s the only thing I can think of off the top of my head that MIGHT explain this.
 Looking at Nino 3.4, your map has it BN. But OISST/CRW dailies were still AN there with warm neutral at last check.

 Unless this is some kind of RONI deal??

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I know the rainfall implications, hence the Long Paddock SOI site.  Are there temperature implications as well for Australia.  Some interior Australian town withing 20 degrees of the Equator got to 33*F, an all time July record.  Another cold snap following one earlier in July.  With a neutral ENSO, is there anything else that might affect temps?

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-23/australias-coldest-town-revealed-following-week-long-cold-snap/104006148

[Stormchaserchuck1]

40 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is that CDAS based? That’s the only thing I can think of off the top of my head that MIGHT explain this.
 Looking at Nino 3.4, your map has it BN. But OISST/CRW dailies were still AN there with warm neutral at last check.

 Unless this is done kind of RONI deal??

Even in the 91-20 base period, we had more La Nina's than El Nino's.. I don't know why the difference

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I know the rainfall implications, hence the Long Paddock SOI site.  Are there temperature implications as well for Australia.  Some interior Australian town withing 20 degrees of the Equator got to 33*F, an all time July record.  Another cold snap following one earlier in July.  With a neutral ENSO, is there anything else that might affect temps?

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-23/australias-coldest-town-revealed-following-week-long-cold-snap/104006148

There was a Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere warming over the last few weeks.. It usually lags with -AAO conditions, that could cause the mid-latitudes to cool. Kind of an A+B+C formula there, and over the tropics it's a little more inversely correlated, but that's what I could come up with.. 

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well this is what it looks like right now

Nino 4 minus Nino 3 is a pretty high reading. That warmth near the Philippines will likely not cool in time for the Winter.. 

Since year 2000, Nino 4 (warm) minus Nino 1.2 (cool) has been in a league of its own. 

 Your map for Nino 3.4 is showing it averaging in cold neutral (ironically about where RONI is). In contrast, OISST is still +0.23 (consistent with CRW map I posted):

[jm1220]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The main takeaway from those forecast maps is that the marine heatwave east of Japan maintains or even slightly becomes stronger heading into the winter. So regardless of the La Niña intensity we will need a mismatch along the lines of Jan 22 or elements of 21-22. Otherwise we will get another winter similar to the last 2 which were warm and relatively snowless. So hoping to get some more clues as we head into the fall as to whether we can see some improvement over the last few winters.

As long as that area east of Japan is still on fire I’m very bearish on any kind of decent East winter at least south of I-90. That’s rip roaring Pacific jet garbage like we’ve had. 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

As long as that area east of Japan is still on fire I’m very bearish on any kind of decent East winter at least south of I-90. That’s rip roaring Pacific jet garbage like we’ve had. 

Absolutely no signs whatsoever of the strong -PDO going anywhere despite what JB may be saying. Also no signs of this elusive east-based La Niña that apparently only exists on twitter since none of the models are showing one or ever did

[PhiEaglesfan712]

At some point, it's time to let go of the hyperactive hurricane season forecast. If there was truly going to be one, like in 2005 or 2020, we wouldn't be stuck in this extended lull, and outside of Beryl, we've been quiet for much of the season.

2005 got the late start like this year, but it was active for 4-5 months straight.

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

At some point, it's time to let go of the hyperactive hurricane season forecast. If there was truly going to be one, like in 2005 or 2020, we wouldn't be stuck in this extended lull, and outside of Beryl, we've been quiet for much of the season.

2005 got the late start like this year, but it was active for 4-5 months straight.

According to this Euro product, tropical storm frequency mean doesn't increase above the climate mean until the week of 8/12-8/19.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202407210000&parameter=Accumulated cyclone energy&valid_time=202407290000

Fwiw, this related Euro product puts the activity chances highest east of Florida for that week.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_forecast?area=Global&base_time=202407210000&intensity=Tropical storms&parameter=Forecast&valid_time=202408190000

[40/70 Benchmark]

This looks to have some Modoki tendencies IMO.

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This looks to have some Modoki tendencies IMO/

Yep and a very strong -PDO

[40/70 Benchmark]

You could argue its central based, but I think that may produce a Modoki like result given the state of the extra tropical Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep and a very strong -PDO

That is a foregone conclusion.

[40/70 Benchmark]

TBH, I am relieved that this season looks pretty clear-cut subpar to me because it gives me a chance to dispell some of the "cold/snow" bias that my work has bared out to date. I don't blame people for pointing that out, but its honestly a coincidence.  Hopefully my past efforts have been detailed enough where those folks could follow my logic and forecast rationale to see that I wasn't just on a JB binge.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

At some point, it's time to let go of the hyperactive hurricane season forecast. If there was truly going to be one, like in 2005 or 2020, we wouldn't be stuck in this extended lull, and outside of Beryl, we've been quiet for much of the season.

2005 got the late start like this year, but it was active for 4-5 months straight.

I would be cautious in that thought for now. Let us see how we do between now and mid August before those call can be made. If forecasts for MJO come anywhere close to phase 1-3 the Atlantic could ventilate rather well, I don't expect much until about the end of the first week of August as we rotate through the EPAC should start to fire off a storm or two as we close out the month.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

At some point, it's time to let go of the hyperactive hurricane season forecast. If there was truly going to be one, like in 2005 or 2020, we wouldn't be stuck in this extended lull, and outside of Beryl, we've been quiet for much of the season.

2005 got the late start like this year, but it was active for 4-5 months straight.

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 7/21/2024 at 1:44 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it was a near average to above snowfall season in the interior Northeast and Great Lakes.. +NAO actually has a higher +precip correlation than temps north of 40N. 

Especially if we are drier through the Fall.. since 2003, these dry periods have gone really wet after we started to approach drought conditions. It's happened about 20/20 times. I was saying this could also make the SE, US more prone to a Hurricane hit this year vs previous years. 

Coming up in late July will be our 6th moderate to strong +NAO period this year.. and I think we had like 2-3 in all of the past 4 years combined. I say that's important because it's changing the N. Atlantic SSTs to +nao roll-forwards. +NAO's favor storm tracks that go up through the Appalachians or Ohio Valley in the wintertime, Add a -PNA to that, and we could actually get some big storms riding up through the Midwest. 

The key I think will be if we tend toward +EPO or -EPO. +EPO is a big rainstorm pattern. -EPO will give some of you guys snow. Both are possible in La Nina, but there is a pretty strong correlation with -pdo and +epo. 

NAO is definitely much different up here than, say, NYC southward. Not only do +NAO periods increase the potential of big snowstorms, but in general can be stormy. But of course, you also run the risk of rain depending on storm tracks. -NAO often means cold & dry suppression, which is not always a bad thing if theres already a good snowpack and the clipper express sets up, but if theres little to no snowcover and no clippers set up, it can be frigid with bare ground. So as important as the NAO is as part of the overall pattern, it truly is a case by case basis for here, at least per my memory.

Are there any good links to NAO by winter? All I could find is a graph that was hard to read.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

NAO is definitely much different up here than, say, NYC southward. Not only do +NAO periods increase the potential of big snowstorms, but in general can be stormy. But of course, you also run the risk of rain depending on storm tracks. -NAO often means cold & dry suppression, which is not always a bad thing if theres already a good snowpack and the clipper express sets up, but if theres little to no snowcover and no clippers set up, it can be frigid with bare ground. So as important as the NAO is as part of the overall pattern, it truly is a case by case basis for here, at least per my memory.

Are there any good links to NAO by winter? All I could find is a graph that was hard to read.

I would guess somewhat below normal snowfall here right now, though probably not as bad as last year...maybe like 40-50" or 45-55".

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Are there any good links to NAO by winter? All I could find is a graph that was hard to read.

Month by month NAO 1950+:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 Only 6 of last 45 (13%) winters have had a -NAO when averaged out over DJF (sub -0.25): 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1. Coincidentally or not, they’ve all been when DJF averaged sunspots were under 35. But summer NAOs have done opposite since 2007 with -NAO dominating!

*Typo corrected

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like our chanes for a -NAO winter right at solar max, right @GaWx?

[40/70 Benchmark]

The more sunsports, the merrier.

[GaWx]

 The ENSO weeklies are still about where they were two months ago for all regions with Nino 3.4 still at +0.2. It literally looks like a very weak Modoki El Niño although that’s not taking into account where they are relative to very warm global tropical SSTs (need to subtract ~~0.6):

17JUL2024     21.2-0.5     25.7-0.1     27.5 0.2     29.4 0.6

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The ENSO weeklies are still about where they were two months ago for all regions with Nino 3.4 still at +0.2. It literally looks like a very weak Modoki El Niño although that’s not taking into account relative to very warm global tropical SSTs (need to subtract ~~0.6):

17JUL2024     21.2-0.5     25.7-0.1     27.5 0.2     29.4 0.6

Shades of last year….later peak. The longer it takes to “get going” the later the oceanic peak. As we’ve discussed many times and @bluewave has posted, the atmosphere is leading the ONI. We are and have been very strongly into La Niña mode

[michsnowfreak]

57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Month by month NAO 1950+:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 Only 6 of last 45 (13%) winters have had a -NAO when averaged out over DJF (sub -0.25): 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1. Coincidentally or not, they’ve all been when DJF averaged sunspots were under 35. But summer NAOs have done opposite since 2007 with -NAO dominating!

*Typo corrected

Awesome, thanks!

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would guess somewhat below normal snowfall here right now, though probably not as bad as last year...maybe like 40-50" or 45-55".

My early guess is above average snowfall in the Great Lakes, greater the further north you go. Ie: probably an excellent snow season for the UP and snowbelts, probably slightly above avg here but not without thaws and rainstorms in the lower Lakes. 

[GaWx]

 The brand new BoM is the same as the prior run, with a weak dip to -0.2 for SON:

 
 Although it was absolutely awful last year by being way too warm, I have to give credit when credit is due as this model has been spot on with a June/July pause in cooling since way back in late March:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/archive/20240330//plumes/sstOutlooks.nino34.hr.png

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Shades of last year….later peak. The longer it takes to “get going” the later the oceanic peak. As we’ve discussed many times and @bluewave has posted, the atmosphere is leading the ONI. We are and have been very strongly into La Niña mode

Yeah, I got to think that pocket of cold in the subsurface has to bubble up to the surface at some point, whether it be 2024-25 or 2025-26. We might even have the anti-86/87 scenario, where a strong la nina peaks in the summer/early fall 2025. (Though, I don't expect a quick flip to super el nino right after, like the 88-89 la nina followed the 86-88 el nino.)