2024-2025 La Nina

[mitchnick]

46 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I certainly wouldn't go cold in the Great Lakes and Northeast with a cold anomaly over Alaska and Greenland. I think they are latching onto what has happened in July, with a +EPO and cold in the center of the country, which is opposite of what usually happens in +EPO:

^correlation map is reverse

I was going to respond to raindancewx this, how odd the cooler weather is there with a +EPO this month. ^two 0.5 correlations disconnecting, pretty rare. 

These global models initialize what is happening recently and run it out alot. 

Even more the interesting correlation with ENSO subsurface which is dominating everything right now for forecasting value

Here's the Cfs2 850 anomalies for the earlier 2m temps. Hard to not at least crack a smile with this map.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

CPC has the US pretty cold in the 6-10 and 8-14 period. It's already been pretty cold in the interior of the continent. We're close to trending behind the very late La Nina development of 2017-18 at this point. My guess is we'll eventually see SSTs at the surface drop off like a rock for a brief period, and then a flat lining and reversal will start shortly thereafter. We'll hit the La Nina SST thresholds for several months, but not the duration for an official La Nina - that's my guess. All the bitching I see in the news lately has been about how hot it has been. But it really seems like a strange month to complain about it in the US. At best parts of the US will be very warm and parts will be very cold. La Nina typically coincides with the Atlantic acting like it is an El Nino (a big warm stripe by the equator). We have a big cold stripe in the Atlantic at the equator. So I'm still fairly skeptical of a huge season. A relatively low number of storms that are very powerful, and a normal number of weak short-lived storms is at least as likely as a hyperactive season (that would see many powerful and weak storms).

After all the non-stop hype since March from some on twitter, if this Atlantic tropical season ends without a super high ACE, it will be one of the most epic busts in recent memory 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

New research (November, 2023) on the QBO and ENSO, both Niñas and Niños. It confirms the older research and shows a strong connection between an easterly (or -QBO)/La Niña and a weak stratospheric polar vortex/-AO and a westerly (or +QBO)/La Niña and a strong SPV/+AO. @Stormchaserchuck1

Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-07040-x

The strongest correlation is -QBO/El Nino = +10mb in cold season, and +QBO/La Nina = -10mb in cold season

I came up with the theory in 2008, but since then the NAO has actually held somewhat of an opposite correlation to 10mb, but the 10mb effect of the two variables has held.  We had I think 4 Stratosphere warmings last Winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After all the non-stop hype since March from some on twitter, if this Atlantic tropical season ends without a super high ACE, it will be one of the most epic busts in recent memory 

If that Atlantic SST predictor area is going super positive right now, and high ACE correlates to -NAO's(?) Maybe it won't be such a high ACE.. hard to believe the potential energy isn't there though when there was a Cat 5 on July 1. Also, subsurface ENSO, approaching -6c right now I think is a lower shear signal for the heart of the season vs the Neutral SST stuff that is continuing.. based on historical analysis of the two variables. Here are three examples:

neg subsurface Aug-Oct 1995

colder subsurface than surface Aug-Oct 2005

colder subsurface originally in Aug-Oct 2020

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Here's the Cfs2 850 anomalies for the earlier 2m temps. Hard to not at least crack a smile with this map.

Not the worst looking map, and with this configuration the MA is probably looking at quite a few wintry mix events, other than that mostly dry. But I think this model is going too cold across canada

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not the worst looking map, and with this configuration the MA is probably looking at quite a few wintry mix events, other than that mostly dry. But I think this model is going too cold across canada

This model and all of the models were obviously much too cold last year in the E US and they have had a warm bias overall for a good number of years. But with the typical La Niña, W Canada to the N Plains/Lakes are often cold and New England is often near normal. So, this CFS map isn’t that far off from that. Of course this is very much a fwiw since the CFS has essentially no forecast value, especially that far out. However, I’d bet on the solid warmth it is showing down here. Also, I’m leaning toward a dry winter for much of the E US. I enjoy winter more than any other season no matter what. It is great for being outdoors.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

CPC has the US pretty cold in the 6-10 and 8-14 period. It's already been pretty cold in the interior of the continent. We're close to trending behind the very late La Nina development of 2017-18 at this point. My guess is we'll eventually see SSTs at the surface drop off like a rock for a brief period, and then a flat lining and reversal will start shortly thereafter. We'll hit the La Nina SST thresholds for several months, but not the duration for an official La Nina - that's my guess. All the bitching I see in the news lately has been about how hot it has been. But it really seems like a strange month to complain about it in the US. At best parts of the US will be very warm and parts will be very cold. La Nina typically coincides with the Atlantic acting like it is an El Nino (a big warm stripe by the equator). We have a big cold stripe in the Atlantic at the equator. So I'm still fairly skeptical of a huge season. A relatively low number of storms that are very powerful, and a normal number of weak short-lived storms is at least as likely as a hyperactive season (that would see many powerful and weak storms).

Last summer was very comfortable and void of heat in MI so I figured we were doomed this year. But its not been bad. Outside of that heatwave in mid June, it's been surprisingly pleasant since late June. It was actually Fall-like after Beryl passed.

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

This model and all of the models were obviously much too cold last year in the E US and they have had a warm bias overall for a good number of years. But with the typical La Niña, W Canada to the N Plains/Lakes are often cold and New England is often near normal. So, this CFS map isn’t that far off from that. Of course this is very much a fwiw since the CFS has essentially no forecast value, especially that far out. However, I’d bet on the solid warmth it is showing down here. Also, I’m leaning toward a dry winter for much of the E US. I enjoy winter more than any other season no matter what. It is great for being outdoors.

The last true dry/drought winter we had on the east coast was 01-02. I hate to use the “we are due” argument, but after over 22 years since the last time, one is inevitable sooner or later……

[snowman19]

In a real big turnaround from the +IOD forecasts they had in the spring, the majority of models are now predicting a neutral to slightly negative IOD by October. It’s currently neutral at -0.19. Not unexpected, as +IOD La Niñas are extremely rare. It looks very unlikely that the IOD will play a big role in this upcoming winter @bluewave @40/70 Benchmark  @GaWx

Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In a real big turnaround from the +IOD forecasts they had in the spring, the majority of models are now predicting a neutral to slightly negative IOD by October. It’s currently neutral at -0.19. Not unexpected, as +IOD La Niñas are extremely rare. It looks very unlikely that the IOD will play a big role in this upcoming winter @bluewave @40/70 Benchmark  @GaWx

Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Reminds me of how the long range guidance repeatedly tries to weaken the MJO 4-6 convection with the record warm SSTs near the Maritime Continent. 
 

 

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

This model and all of the models were obviously much too cold last year in the E US and they have had a warm bias overall for a good number of years. But with the typical La Niña, W Canada to the N Plains/Lakes are often cold and New England is often near normal. So, this CFS map isn’t that far off from that. Of course this is very much a fwiw since the CFS has essentially no forecast value, especially that far out. However, I’d bet on the solid warmth it is showing down here. Also, I’m leaning toward a dry winter for much of the E US. I enjoy winter more than any other season no matter what. It is great for being outdoors.

Just wanted to add that the -PMM supports a weak/muted STJ. This gives your drier winter idea some validity 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The last true dry/drought winter we had on the east coast was 01-02. I hate to use the “we are due” argument, but after over 22 years since the last time, one is inevitable sooner or later……

Well, drier winters are going to be harder to come by given CC... you have to also acknowledge that we are "due" for a cold winter, too then.

[BuffaloWeather]

Impossible to get dry winters in lake effect regions. If the lakes don't freeze which is commonplace now a days. I've definitely noticed less LES events due to AGW but the events have been pretty strong. 2022-23 winter we had an 80"+ event in November and the famous Buffalo Blizzard where 60" fell with hurricane force wind gusts. And then last winter had the big January LES event with 82" in 5 days.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, drier winters are going to be harder to come by given CC... you have to also acknowledge that we are "due" for a cold winter, too then.

How many winters have been below normal temps wise at Boston since 2000? Dec-Feb

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How many winters have been below normal temps wise at Boston since 2000? Dec-Feb

Not sure, maybe 2000-2001, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015? Only other possibility is maybe 2013-2014...

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, drier winters are going to be harder to come by given CC... you have to also acknowledge that we are "due" for a cold winter, too then.

Like I said I hate to use the we are due argument but the last cold winter was 9 years ago (14-15) compared to 22 years ago for the last drier than normal one lol 

On another note, @Stormchaserchuck1 holy s**t at that ridge in the Atlantic, showing well over 600dm! Right where that record warm pool is

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Like I said I hate to use the we are due argument but the last cold winter was 9 years ago (14-15) compared to 22 years ago for the last drier than normal one lol 

On another note, @Stormchaserchuck1 holy s**t at that ridge in the Atlantic, showing well over 600dm! Right where that record warm pool is

May be tough to be very dry with all of the latent heat throughout the seas around the globe right now. If anything, it will be easier for the se and mid Atlantic, but the N stream being more prevalent makes it a taller task in the NE.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still looking like strong correlation with -ENSO at the 384hr model range 

all hail the subsurface!

[snowman19]

Sunspots are coming out even higher than expected, now over 230, this solar max has been unprecedented, continuing to overperform:
 

 

Also, appears there’s even more to come. We won’t know when the peak occurs until months after it happens, however, it’s pretty obvious that we definitely haven’t reached the peak yet as the solar flux continues to increase:

 

 

 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Yep, any chance of a hyperactive season is pretty much over. 7 days takes us to July 22, and despite Beryl, we've still only had 3 systems. We're not only well behind the pace of 2020 and 2021, we're even behind last year's pace as well. This is looking more like a 2007-type season than a hyperactive one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yep, any chance of a hyperactive season is pretty much over. 7 days takes us to July 22, and despite Beryl, we've still only had 3 systems. We're not only well behind the pace of 2020 and 2021, we're even behind last year's pace as well. This is looking more like a 2007-type season than a hyperactive one.

Makes the winter outlook easier. Funny you mention 2007 as an analog...I have mentioend that as a potential best case scenario for the NE...obviously toned down for NNE, as I don't expect 150" of snow just north of KCON. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Like I said I hate to use the we are due argument but the last cold winter was 9 years ago (14-15) compared to 22 years ago for the last drier than normal one lol 

On another note, @Stormchaserchuck1 holy s**t at that ridge in the Atlantic, showing well over 600dm! Right where that record warm pool is

The last really cooler summer was way back in 2009 in the Northeast .So we have had 12 out of the last 15 summers here record warmer to much warmer than average. Even the relatively cooler summers of 2014, 2017, and 2023 weren’t  that much below normal. It’s funny how the record 9 warmer than average winter run which began in December 2015 came right after one of our coldest Februaries in 2015. The same way the summer warm pattern shifted after the record cool June and July period. So it was as if those brief and isolated much cooler months were part of a loading pattern of sorts to the much warmer climate we find ourselves in here in the Northeast. Places like BHO have seen 53 top 10 warmest months since 2010 to only 1 top 10 coldest which was in February 2015. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Sunspots are coming out even higher than expected, now over 230, this solar max has been unprecedented, continuing to overperform:
 

 

Also, appears there’s even more to come. We won’t know when the peak occurs until months after it happens, however, it’s pretty obvious that we definitely haven’t reached the peak yet as the solar flux continues to increase:

 

 

 

 

 

If the solar cycle hasn't peaked yet, then that is good news for perhaps some intervals of high latitude blocking this coming winter. Notice I said "some intervals" and not a -NAO/AO season per se, as I know that may trigger @GaWx 

I get the westerly QBO/La Nina correlation and all...just saying, near solar max is less hostile towards periods of winter blocking than descending solar. I certaintly doesn't look good overall, so the argument becomes "just how bad does it look", which is when these factos come into play.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Sunspots are coming out even higher than expected, now over 230, this solar max has been unprecedented, continuing to overperform:
 

 

Also, appears there’s even more to come. We won’t know when the peak occurs until months after it happens, however, it’s pretty obvious that we definitely haven’t reached the peak yet as the solar flux continues to increase:

 

 

 

 

 

Better now than the winter.

[Spartman]

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Better now than the winter.

Its not the max you should be the most leery of, rather the 1-3 year stretch, thereafter....that is when the solar wind kicks up the geomagnetic energy, which bolsters the PV. Again, not to say we aren't more likely than not to have a strong PV anyway, but that post solar max even moreso.

[bluewave]

The atmospheric La Niña response is one of the strongest that we have seen in early July similar to 2022. Notice how strong the VP anomalies are over the Maritime Continent. My guess is that the near record -PDO and WPAC warm pool are more important  right now than the official ONI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The atmospheric La Niña response is one of the strongest that we have seen in early July similar to 2022. Notice how strong the VP anomalies are over the Maritime Continent. My guess is that the near record -PDO and WPAC warm pool are more important  right now than the official ONI.

No argument at all. Agreed. 2022-2023 is a pretty good analog, but hopefully we will have a bit more luck this go around. The cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very formiddable, regardless of the ONI peak, which is reflected well by the RONI.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No argument at all. Agreed. 2022-2023 is a pretty good analog, but hopefully we will have a bit more luck this go around. The cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very formiddable, regardless of the ONI peak, which is reflected wll by the RONI.

I am just pointing this out for the current atmospheric response which is leading the official ONI. It’s probably why we are getting the robust EWB this week. While it’s hard to dispute the warmer signals for the coming winter, it’s still uncertain whether we can see some mismatch periods to make things a little more interesting than 22-23 was. The bar has been so low the last 2 winters than any small improvement would be welcome. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I am just pointing this out for the current atmospheric response which is leading the official ONI. It’s probably why we are getting the robust EWB this week. While it’s hard to dispute the warmer signals for the coming winter, it’s still uncertain whether we can see some mismatch periods to make things a little more interesting than 22-23 was. The bar has been so low the last 2 winters than any small improvement would be welcome. 

I think October will be telling with respect to the MJO amplitude that you mentioned.