Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What did Bosron get, 9" last year? I'll bet anyone right now $100 that we beat that. Bad omen though. It's along the same lines of no more Alberta clippers. The land-cold pattern hits a south wind more easily along the Northeast region. We are seeing this especially in NYC's warmer than average streak, which is anomalous even to global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't think a small cyclone near South America will change the N. American Winter that much. The correlation is colder waters from upwelling in the N. Atlantic, especially in Sept. But 2005 is starting to be a good analog.. remember when I went for the warmest Winter lol. We had 28 storms that year. It was the 7th warmest Winter. There was a huge N. Atlantic SST +NAO signal that Summer season. We've had some cold bursts lately.. remember when Kansas City hit -35F wind chill for Chiefs home playoff game. -EPO can still do it.. but for that I think you need a Weaker or nonexistent La Nina. I use the subsurface, and it's in Moderate La Nina range. Warmest winter call was 2006, not 2005. Keep in mind, I am not arguing for a "cold" winter...my confidence is that it will be snowier for at least SNE, which isn't saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Warmest winter call was 2006, not 2005. Keep in mind, I am not arguing for a "cold" winter...my confidence is that it will be snowier for at least SNE, which isn't saying much. It was for 2005-2006. We had a super cold Dec 2-3 weeks, then Jan-Feb was the warmest I think up to that time. I still think there is more precipitable water around to do higher coastal snow events if things line up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It was for 2005-2006. We had a super cold Dec 2-3 weeks, then Jan-Feb was the warmest I think up to that time. I still think there is more precipitable water around to do higher coastal snow events if things line up right. No, it wasn't. It was the fall of 2006...no question in my mind. I joined Eastern in the fall of 2006 and it was that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, it wasn't. It was the fal of 2006...no question in my mind. I joined Eastern in the fall of 2006 and it was that year. We had a big New Foundland warm pool that year, and -PDO configuration 2005 was slight -NAO SST signal. I don't think I would have done it in that condition.. but that was still a warm Winter after a super active Atlantic. Dec had a real nice cold burst, but that had a lot to do with -QBO that was analogous to 1989 going into the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We had a big New Foundland warm pool that year, and -PDO configuration I wasn't on Eastern in 2005. It was 2006. I'm positive...and you were right, as that winter torched. Remember? Jack O (RIP), the dude who started SV was all over region 1.2 leading the way in warm winter el Nino seasons, like that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wasn't on Eastern in 2005. It was 2006. I'm positive...and you were right, as that winter torched. Remember? Jack O (RIP), the dude who started SV was all over region 1.2 leading the way in warm winter el Nino seasons, like that one. I believe that was 2006 too. I wasn’t a member yet but I do remember there being the massive New Foundland warm pool and the strong -PDO like Chuck said. There was quite a few winter forecasts that were for a very cold and snowy east coast winter (JB being one….surprise surprise) and they all busted horribly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: What are you looking at to reach that conclusion? The new plumes look closer to a La Nada. - So, verbatim, the July Euro is forecasting ONI of ~-0.1C in OND and NDJ. That compares to -0.3 in June and -0.5 in May. - The June runs over the last 15++ years have averaged a whopping 0.5 too warm for OND ONI. I haven’t analyzed July yet. But logically it should have a slightly smaller bias. Something like +0.3 to +0.4. - Thus implied bias corrected (bc) July Euro ONI prog is for -0.4 to -0.5 in OND/NDJ. - The latest ONI-RONI is +0.61 and has only slowly been falling from earlier record peak of +0.66. So, it’s realistic to assume an OND/NDJ ONI-RONI still up at ~+0.50. - Thus, the implied bc July Euro RONI prog is for -0.9 to -1.0 in OND/NDJ. The Euro and other progs look closer to a “basin-wide” than either E based or Modoki imo. - That -0.9 to -1.0 would be a much weaker La Niña than what many of us were earlier expecting as drop in Nino anoms was stalled for >month. However per @snowman19, Chris, Ray, and others, that might not make much of difference as far as winter is concerned due to the overwhelming W PAC warmth. - Regarding implications for H season, I posted in late May that on avg the worst seasons for US H landfalls, especially NE Gulf to Carolinas, have been when ASO RONI was weak La Niña as opposed to either mod/strong Niña or cold neutral. This is also the case for the area from the Bahamas to Lesser Antilles. This was backed by detailed maps I saw elsewhere. - The bc July Euro suggests an ASO RONI of ~-0.8, which would be ~the worst ASO RONI if one doesn’t want a bad season. That doesn’t mean it will be bad though as not all with a weak Niña have been. These are just averages. - Perhaps the long awaited resumed cooling is commencing. CDAS and CRW anomalies have dropped 0.1 to 0.2 in recent days. Also, the SOI has finally increased substantially the last 11 days (as expected per models). New easterly wind bursts have been mentioned by @snowman19and others. So, we’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wasn't on Eastern in 2005. It was 2006. I'm positive...and you were right, as that winter torched. Remember? Jack O (RIP), the dude who started SV was all over region 1.2 leading the way in warm winter el Nino seasons, like that one. You're right, it was 2006-2007 because I landed a job after that. Same methods apply now and have matched the historical standard deviation in real time over the last 15 years. Plus things like ENSO/QBO, which really correlate to 10mb conditions over the cold weather season. Subsurface ENSO being much greater than SSTs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: - The June runs over the last 15++ years have averaged a whopping 0.5 too warm for OND ONI. Hard to believe the surface is going to stay Neutral with this in the subsurface.. Although the global warming of oceans skew is so high right now.. it's hard imagine a -1c occurring at the surface anywhere.. We are also "sitting" in the same global patterns as the last 26-29 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 18 minutes ago, GaWx said: - So, verbatim, the July Euro is forecasting ONI of ~-0.1C in OND and NDJ. That compares to -0.3 in June and -0.5 in May. - The June runs over the last 15++ years have averaged a whopping 0.5 too warm for OND ONI. I haven’t analyzed July yet. But logically it should have a slightly smaller bias. Something like +0.3 to +0.4. - Thus implied bias corrected (bc) July Euro ONI prog is for -0.4 to -0.5 in OND/NDJ. - The latest ONI-RONI is +0.61 and has only slowly been falling from earlier record peak of +0.66. So, it’s realistic to assume an OND/NDJ ONI-RONI still up at ~+0.50. - Thus, the implied bc July Euro RONI prog is for -0.9 to -1.0 in OND/NDJ. The Euro and other progs look closer to a “basin-wide” than either E based or Modoki imo. - That -0.9 to -1.0 would be a much weaker La Niña than what many of us were earlier expecting as drop in Nino anoms was stalled for >month. However per @snowman19, Chris, Ray, and others, that might not make much of difference as far as winter is concerned due to the overwhelming W PAC warmth. - Regarding implications for H season, I posted ~2 months ago that on avg the worst seasons for US H landfalls, especially NE Gulf to Carolinas, have been when ASO RONI was weak La Niña as opposed to either mod/strong Niña or cold neutral. The bc July Euro suggests an ASO RONI of ~-0.8, which would be ~the worst ASO RONI if one doesn’t want a bad season. - Perhaps the long awaited resumed cooling is commencing. CDAS and CRW anomalies have dropped 0.1 to 0.2 in recent days. Also, the SOI has finally increased substantially the last 11 days (as expected per models). New easterly wind bursts have been mentioned by @snowman19and others. So, we’ll see. Thanks for your analysis. Always excellent. A couple of things cause me pause regarding the anticipated warm Enso forecast however. First, Euro never bit on a mod-strong Nina like just about all modeling was advertising and everything I've seen from other modeling is they are moving toward the Euro. Hence, the Euro raw numbers may deserve more weight this year despite other modeling. The second, and admittedly a real unknown, is that Euro model upgrades over the past year are using AI moreso than prior years. That "may" be a good reason to discount some of its old biases. We won't know for certain if it does until spring, but the fact that it has had the better forecast so far suggests maybe AI is making a difference already. Certainly some speculation on my part, but just some stuff that I'm considering giving me pause to expect the Euro is too warm with it ONI progs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 I don't need any convincing that this La Nina will act stronger than implied by ONI. No doubt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Since 1997, ONI >1.0 peak (14 examples) vs Weak ONI peak, 0.5-0.9 (8 examples) Moderate-Strong ONI Weak ONI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 The weaker ONI La Ninas over the last decade have been warmer than the stronger ones. Not sure if we get a continuation of this theme going forward. But it will be interesting to see how things turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 5 Author Share Posted July 5 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Only a complete fool (or someone that follows Joe Bastardi) would be expecting a 95-96 or 10-11 redux since absolutely nothing even remotely supports that. Same story with 13-14, 14-15, 17-18…. I agree with that, but unlike last year I would also argue that nothing supports a 11-12, 2022-2023, 2023-2024, 1972-1973 etc redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't need any convincing that this La Nina will act stronger than implied by ONI. No doubt. Yeah, but my job is to look for silver linings! Seriously, the warmer the Niña ONI the better imho as a warmer equatorial Pacific will always increase chances for STJ interaction despite a Niña background state, and that can't be a bad thing over the winter as a whole. At least, that's the way I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The weaker ONI La Ninas over the last decade have been warmer than the stronger ones. Not sure if we get a continuation of this theme going forward. But it will be interesting to see how things turn out. It could also be a function of west vs east-based. This one so far is east-based It may be hard to cool Nino 4 ultimately, since last year it hit record warmest, and Gawx and raindancewx have been posting stuff about a strong general warming trend there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It could also be a function of west vs east-based. This one so far is east-based It may be hard to cool Nino 4 ultimately, since last year it hit record warmest, and Gawx and raindancewx have been posting stuff about a strong general warming trend there. We started to see a change during the 10-11 and 11-12 multiyear La Niña. 10-11 was one of our strongest La Ninas and best winters. The weaker 11-12 was much warmer and less snowy. Before this the weaker La Ninas were colder and snowier and the stronger ones warmer and less snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 11 hours ago, bluewave said: I am guessing that the weaker Nino 3.4 and stronger -PDO are related to the current global record SSTs. We are just coming off a borderline super El Niño event so it naturally takes longer for Nino 3.4 to cool. This is what happened during the 16-17 La Niña following the 15-16 super El Niño. It took until the following season in 17-18 for the La Niña SSTs and ONI to drop lower. So the Euro rushed the cooling of Nino 3.4 from the forecasts issued back in the spring. The same way it tried to weaken the current marine heatwave east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. So both SST areas are now warmer in the recent forecast issued about an hour ago. The current record -PDO is allowing a much stronger La Niña atmospheric response than expected from just using the official ONI SSTs. As per the MJO details, we usually have to wait until at least October to get some hints as it’s usually less amplified during the warm season. New Euro run stronger marine heatwave south of Aleutians and east of Japan continuing to drive the stronger -PDO heading into fall Older run weaker marine heatwave south of Aleutians and -PDO and stronger La Niña cooling in Nino 3.4 I just checked the Euro site and the N-D-J forecast is out as well as the S-O-N forecast you posted. It's clearly a La Nada ONI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Warmest winter call was 2006, not 2005. Keep in mind, I am not arguing for a "cold" winter...my confidence is that it will be snowier for at least SNE, which isn't saying much. Do we get cold winters anymore? I mean when was the last negative departure for a Dec-Feb? 2013-2014 I think here for Buf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I just checked the Euro site and the N-D-J forecast is out as well as the S-O-N forecast you posted. It's clearly a La Nada ONI. Yes, it is ~-0.1. La Nada ONI. But RONI would likely be ~-0.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: Yes, it is ~-0.1. La Nada ONI. But RONI would likely be ~-0.6. I see only 2 La Nada ONI winters after a strong or super Niño....66/67 & 92/93. Give me either of those winters imby. I actually remember snows in 2/67 too...yes, I'm old. Larry, feel free to check my work as I should just defer to you in the first place. Lol https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 55 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Do we get cold winters anymore? I mean when was the last negative departure for a Dec-Feb? 2013-2014 I think here for Buf. 2014-15 here at PHL. It would have been 2017-18, but a near record warm February skewed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 In terms of actual SSTs for Nino 3.4, these are the years within 0.20C (+/-) the 27.89C observed in June 2024. 27.69-28.09 1951, 1958, 1965, 1968, 1969, 1977, 1980, 1993, 1994, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018. Some of the late forming La Ninas like 2005 and 2017 get pretty cold in Nino 3.4 for where they are in June. But you can see most of the years (12 of 18) go to El Nino from similar SSTs. 1980 (27.94C), 1993 (28.08C), 2005 (27.77C), 2012 (27.75C), 2016 (27.69C), 2017 (28.06C) are the non-El Nino winters of the bunch. June 2013 actually looks a lot like SSTs if you just eyeball It. Of course it's a non-La Nina. Just a cold Neutral. I'm assuming the RONI crowd doesn't consider it a La Nina because it's kind of a good winter for the East. The Indian Ocean is warmer and the Atlantic is warmer. But the Atlantic has the right shape with cold SSTs by Africa/NW Europe. Tropical Tidbits has 2007 & 2013 as top SST matches globally since 2000. I think if you warmed up oceans by 0.1C globally that's probably about the right idea. Thee seasonal models seem to be trying to go to something like this for the winter now. This makes sense to me intuitively, the Plains likely won't see record warmth two years in a row. At some point I'll run the winters after the hottest winters in Minneapolis out of curiosity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 11 hours ago, bluewave said: If the -PDO and marine heatwaves in those areas continue to be this strong going into the fall and winter, then it would probably mean a highly amplified Aleutian ridge. You can see the last frame of the Euro showing this. The recent CANSIPS was also moving toward this look in its recent update. So a very strong La Niña background state even if the ONI is only in La Nada to weak La Niña territory. I commented earlier that this set up reminds me of 2007...it looks hostile for NE winter with a cursory glance, but if you squint, you can see how New England could do okay in terms of snowfall with cold nearby. 1 hour ago, raindancewx said: In terms of actual SSTs for Nino 3.4, these are the years within 0.20C (+/-) the 27.89C observed in June 2024. 27.69-28.09 1951, 1958, 1965, 1968, 1969, 1977, 1980, 1993, 1994, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018. Some of the late forming La Ninas like 2005 and 2017 get pretty cold in Nino 3.4 for where they are in June. But you can see most of the years (12 of 18) go to El Nino from similar SSTs. 1980 (27.94C), 1993 (28.08C), 2005 (27.77C), 2012 (27.75C), 2016 (27.69C), 2017 (28.06C) are the non-El Nino winters of the bunch. June 2013 actually looks a lot like SSTs if you just eyeball It. Of course it's a non-La Nina. Just a cold Neutral. I'm assuming the RONI crowd doesn't consider it a La Nina because it's kind of a good winter for the East. The Indian Ocean is warmer and the Atlantic is warmer. But the Atlantic has the right shape with cold SSTs by Africa/NW Europe. Tropical Tidbits has 2007 & 2013 as top SST matches globally since 2000. I think if you warmed up oceans by 0.1C globally that's probably about the right idea. Thee seasonal models seem to be trying to go to something like this for the winter now. This makes sense to me intuitively, the Plains likely won't see record warmth two years in a row. At some point I'll run the winters after the hottest winters in Minneapolis out of curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Warmest Minneapolis winters since 1870, following winter in () 1 2023-2024 29.9 0 2 1877-1878 29.0 0 (16) 3 1930-1931 26.9 0 (22.5) 4 2001-2002 26.8 0 (13.1) 5 2011-2012 26.3 0 (19.8) 6 1881-1882 26.1 0 (9.3) 7 1997-1998 25.9 0 (21.6) 8 1986-1987 25.8 0 (16.4) 9 2016-2017 24.3 0 (17.1) 10 2015-2016 24.2 0 (24.3) 11 1982-1983 24.0 0 (14.3) 5 warm / 5 cold against 1870-2023 median (16F) for DJF. 6/10 cold against 1991-2020 median (~19F) Non-El Nino winters since 1980 following near-record Plains winter heat - fairly standard La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Minneapolis had 5 cold Winters 2018-2022: I thought they were due for some warmer Winters: I'm not sure that streak is over.. if anything, I think they are "due" to continue going warmer for the next few years, if you look at the longer decadal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Several of those winters were pretty warm in Minneapolis. Couple cold ones, but that five year period is held up by two or three cold winters of the five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Here is 2008-2022 40% of those Winters were warm, but cold weather was sitting in the Upper Midwest for a while there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 10 hours ago, mitchnick said: I see only 2 La Nada ONI winters after a strong or super Niño....66/67 & 92/93. Give me either of those winters imby. I actually remember snows in 2/67 too...yes, I'm old. Larry, feel free to check my work as I should just defer to you in the first place. Lol https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php The forecast from the ECMWF for La Nada during NDJ is identical to this point in 2016 after that super El Niño. Remember the ECMWF runs warm with its forecast plumes. The forecast was for -0.2 in NDJ and -0.7 verified. The actual ONI weakened to La Nada -0.3 in DJF. It matched the other weaker La Niña to La Nada winters which had the very strong La Niña background state. So it will be interesting to see how this one ends up and whether we follow the recent pattern of the La Nada and weak La Niña running warmer than the stronger La Ninas. We probably have to wait until we get more clues in the fall. But every La Niña regardless of strength since 11-12 has been warmer than average in the Northeast. The stronger ones finished with a smaller warm departure than the weaker ones. Snowfall was more variable with the stronger events snowier than the weaker ones. This usually followed the October early MJO indicator. Plus we have had 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row following the new and warmer global temperature baseline following the 15-16 super El Niño. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2016-July-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table ECMWF model -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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