2024-2025 La Nina

[Spartman]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This Winter has probably the strongest predictive signal from this range, given the expectation of oncoming La Nina (maybe Moderate strength), -PDO which has recently strengthened its -1 standing, probable +QBO, so La Nina/+QBO combo, which favors a stronger Winter 10mb Polar Vortex (we saw this combo in 22-23) - the correlation is +AO,  recent global temperature high temperatures and record highs. And +AMO has a slight SE-ridge correlation, the +AMO cycle is still peaking positive. Some have correlated the part of the solar cycle approaching the solar max with warmer temperatures, but I have found a weak correlation there.. 

On the other side, when I locally barely get out of the 40s on an early May day (yesterday), it's hard to imagine the potential isn't there for some Wintertime cold. Also, the -PNA has been weak so far in this La Nina cycle, and nothing like what we saw 2020-2023. ENSO has had, in my opinion, a higher than average correlation with the PNA over the last few decades, and we aren't going to see a fixed Wintertime PNA state 85% of the time like we have seen 1950-2020, given +ENSO. Last year the PNA was not really correlating with Stronger El Nino, and this carried over into the Wintertime.. something to watch.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really some big warming lately in the western N. Pacific, near Japan, enhancing the -PDO

https://ibb.co/qDByVWQ

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/5/2024 at 3:44 PM, Yanksfan said:

Just messing with the warm trolls. Can’t stand the people out there that the snowless winters we’ve been having recently is because of climate change. I call out BS to that. I lived through the 1980’s. Talk about lack of snow. Was that the result of climate change? Don’t think so. As a snow enthusiast I have to say we have been spoiled by the big winters in the 2010’s. Weather is cyclical. We’re just paying the piper right now.

Well, we are going to be more prone to poor stretches due to CC...that said, there will also be some bonanza years, too. The impact of it is more feast/famine...which I am okay with. Even after being hit with 6 conecutive shit snow seasons, it was worth it to see 2014-2015.

Hit me with it.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we are going to be more prone to poor stretches due to CC...that said, there will also be some bonanza years, too. The impact of it is more feast/famine...which I am okay with. Even after being hit with 6 consecutive shit snow seasons, it was worth it to see 2014-2015.

Hit me with it.

I haven't even met snow climo in almost a decade. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Powerful Aleutian High pressure (-PNA) now projected May 15-22+. There could be more subsurface ENSO cooling during that time if it verifies. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Pocket of -2c in Nino 3.

https://ibb.co/HCT4knc

[csnavywx]

On 5/7/2024 at 10:59 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

I haven't even met snow climo in almost a decade. 

Ditto. Feels like I'm already living in South Carolina the last few years. Can't keep my friggin daffodils in the ground past the end of Jan since '21.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since I moved back east from the west coast in 2017, we have yet to have 1 normal snowfall Winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's another view of that deep cold pocket developing in Nino 3. 

https://ibb.co/qspXSjq

[FPizz]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since I moved back east from the west coast in 2017, we have yet to have 1 normal snowfall Winter. 

I lucked out with one this past winter here in NJ with that one rouge band that dumped a surprise foot of snow in CNJ.  Finished the season with 28.75",  17/18 and 20/21 were well above average here and 18/19 was only a hair below.  

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[Eskimo Joe]

Thought this would be worthwhile for the discussion. A classmate of mine has a new publication coming out that focuses on ozone as a potential indicator for ENSO change.

 

 

[raindancewx]

We're currently in a period of very high solar activity, with Uncle Sam issuing a warning for a level four solar storm impacting the Earth. I'm expecting to see the Northern Lights again locally when skies clear over the next few nights.

1998/1999/2000 all had pretty high solar activity, with 1998 following a big El Nino. I don't really like any of the more recent La Ninas except for maybe 2011 or 2022 as similar to this event. 1988 also had subsurface La Nina conditions when the surface showed El Nino in Spring, with high solar, like this year. Not really a fan of any of the other La Ninas from 1960 to 1990, although something like 1970 or 1971 may not be terrible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

We're currently in a period of very high solar activity, with Uncle Sam issuing a warning for a level four solar storm impacting the Earth. I'm expecting to see the Northern Lights again locally when skies clear over the next few nights.

1998/1999/2000 all had pretty high solar activity, with 1998 following a big El Nino. I don't really like any of the more recent La Ninas except for maybe 2011 or 2022 as similar to this event. 1988 also had subsurface La Nina conditions when the surface showed El Nino in Spring, with high solar, like this year. Not really a fan of any of the other La Ninas from 1960 to 1990, although something like 1970 or 1971 may not be terrible.

Just wrapping up my post analysis and I want to credit you for how dead on accurate you were with respect to the forcing not mattering this year. It looked exactly like a Modoki el Nino, pinned near the dateline, but the DM H5 anomaly verification was very similar to a traditional east-based El Nino. I think the extreme +WPO, which you were also all over, was at least partially why.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I like the late 90s cool ENSO period as an analog. Only good news out this way is that it can't really get much worse...we are pretty near rock bottom. Maybe a super nova ACE prevents another all out disaster for the NE.

[raindancewx]

As much as I enjoy seeing the Northern Lights in the deserts, it's not a great omen for global electronic and communication infrastructure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/5/2024 at 5:59 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This Winter has probably the strongest predictive signal from this range, given the expectation of oncoming La Nina (maybe Moderate strength), -PDO which has recently strengthened its -1 standing, probable +QBO, so La Nina/+QBO combo, which favors a stronger Winter 10mb Polar Vortex (we saw this combo in 22-23) - the correlation is +AO,  recent global temperature high temperatures and record highs. And +AMO has a slight SE-ridge correlation, the +AMO cycle is still peaking positive. Some have correlated the part of the solar cycle approaching the solar max with warmer temperatures, but I have found a weak correlation there.. 

On the other side, when I locally barely get out of the 40s on an early May day (yesterday), it's hard to imagine the potential isn't there for some Wintertime cold. Also, the -PNA has been weak so far in this La Nina cycle, and nothing like what we saw 2020-2023. ENSO has had, in my opinion, a higher than average correlation with the PNA over the last few decades, and we aren't going to see a fixed Wintertime PNA state 85% of the time like we have seen 1950-2020, given +ENSO. Last year the PNA was not really correlating with Stronger El Nino, and this carried over into the Wintertime.. something to watch.. 

It's the few years after the solar max that is correlated with a stronger PV.

[snowman19]

On 5/10/2024 at 8:11 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I like the late 90s cool ENSO period as an analog. Only good news out this way is that it can't really get much worse...we are pretty near rock bottom. Maybe a super nova ACE prevents another all out disaster for the NE.

It’s obviously still extremely early, but yes, as of right now it looks very ugly. At least a moderate, possibly strong La Niña, some models are suggesting a Modoki Niña event, +QBO (when combined with a Niña and high solar makes SSWEs very unlikely, +QBO/Nina also supports less I-95 snowfall than -QBO/Nina per Joe D’Aleo’s research), strong -PDO, solar max, high sunspot numbers, very high geomag, ++AMO (seems to support a stronger SE ridge), very likely -IOD come fall into winter (supports Maritime Continent/Eastern IO MJO 4-6 forcing and a stronger La Niña), possible volcanic stratosphere with the recent high-end VEI 5 tropical volcanic eruptions, I guess a high Atlantic ACE tropical season with recurves would be a possible plus for the NAO, however, as Gawx pointed out, literally every single -NAO/-AO winter we have had in the last 45+ years, without exception, since 79-80, has occurred during a solar minimum with a low number of sunspots and low geomag. Arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover buildup TBD this fall, however, both of those have been pure voodoo, as we have seen over the last decade…..

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s obviously still extremely early, but yes, as of right now it looks very ugly. At least a moderate, possibly strong La Niña, some models are suggesting a Modoki Niña event, +QBO (when combined with a Niña and high solar makes SSWEs very unlikely, +QBO/Nina also supports less I-95 snowfall than -QBO/Nina per Joe D’Aleo’s research), strong -PDO, solar max, high sunspot numbers, very high geomag, ++AMO (seems to support a stronger SE ridge), very likely -IOD come fall into winter (supports Maritime Continent/Eastern IO MJO 4-6 forcing and a stronger La Niña), possible volcanic stratosphere with the recent high-end VEI 5 tropical volcanic eruptions, I guess a high Atlantic ACE tropical season with recurves would be a possible plus for the NAO, however, as Gawx pointed out, literally every single -NAO/-AO winter we have had in the last 45+ years, without exception, since 79-80, has occurred during a solar minimum with a low number of sunspots and low geomag. Arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover buildup TBD this fall, however, both of those have been pure voodoo, as we have seen over the last decade…..

 Welcome back, snowman! You’ve been sorely missed. The ENSO threads aren’t the same without you. When I think of ENSO, I think of snowman as much as anyone!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 5/11/2024 at 12:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's the few years after the solar max that is correlated with a stronger PV.

Here is the historical Solar Flux correlation with Dec-Feb US temperature (we are going to be at the + side of this next Winter). 

https://ibb.co/z7d6kbD

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here is the historical Solar Flux correlation with Dec-Feb US temperature (we are going to be at the + side of this next Winter). 

https://ibb.co/z7d6kbD

Just saying....+NAO is most correlated with an increase in geomagnetic particles and solar wind, which peak in the few years following solar max. Regardless, I agree next winter looks mild again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s obviously still extremely early, but yes, as of right now it looks very ugly. At least a moderate, possibly strong La Niña, some models are suggesting a Modoki Niña event, +QBO (when combined with a Niña and high solar makes SSWEs very unlikely, +QBO/Nina also supports less I-95 snowfall than -QBO/Nina per Joe D’Aleo’s research), strong -PDO, solar max, high sunspot numbers, very high geomag, ++AMO (seems to support a stronger SE ridge), very likely -IOD come fall into winter (supports Maritime Continent/Eastern IO MJO 4-6 forcing and a stronger La Niña), possible volcanic stratosphere with the recent high-end VEI 5 tropical volcanic eruptions, I guess a high Atlantic ACE tropical season with recurves would be a possible plus for the NAO, however, as Gawx pointed out, literally every single -NAO/-AO winter we have had in the last 45+ years, without exception, since 79-80, has occurred during a solar minimum with a low number of sunspots and low geomag. Arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover buildup TBD this fall, however, both of those have been pure voodoo, as we have seen over the last decade…..

I agree in general, but I think we are a year or two off from peaking with respect to this. 

Here is my wrap up from last year. I was right about the forcing, but completely wrong about the implications of it....did not matter one bit. West Pacific drove the bus, which is why I think @bluewavenailed it with respect to articulating the disconnect between the ONI and RONI/MEI as reflective of "competing forces". And unfortunately for NE US snow lovers, all of the forces that competed with and overcame ENSO were in the west Pacific and were evil ones.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html

[George001]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s obviously still extremely early, but yes, as of right now it looks very ugly. At least a moderate, possibly strong La Niña, some models are suggesting a Modoki Niña event, +QBO (when combined with a Niña and high solar makes SSWEs very unlikely, +QBO/Nina also supports less I-95 snowfall than -QBO/Nina per Joe D’Aleo’s research), strong -PDO, solar max, high sunspot numbers, very high geomag, ++AMO (seems to support a stronger SE ridge), very likely -IOD come fall into winter (supports Maritime Continent/Eastern IO MJO 4-6 forcing and a stronger La Niña), possible volcanic stratosphere with the recent high-end VEI 5 tropical volcanic eruptions, I guess a high Atlantic ACE tropical season with recurves would be a possible plus for the NAO, however, as Gawx pointed out, literally every single -NAO/-AO winter we have had in the last 45+ years, without exception, since 79-80, has occurred during a solar minimum with a low number of sunspots and low geomag. Arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover buildup TBD this fall, however, both of those have been pure voodoo, as we have seen over the last decade…..

The PDO is still up in the air, but it will likely be negative as is typical for moderate to strong Nina’s. These are valid points, and I agree that it looks ugly right now. Some of the latest guidance is trending more towards a moderate peak than strong one, but regardless the solar activity is a strong negative factor for east coast snow prospects. I am much more concerned about that than the raw strength. In the extremely snowy strong La Niña event in 2010-2011, the solar activity was very low, opposite of this year. Id keep an eye on the PDO, it is negative but not as strongly negative as it was earlier in the year despite the Nino falling apart. That’s one thing to look for as a possible wildcard that could work in favor of those rooting for snow on the east coast. Ultimately, right now things are pointing in the direction of a +NAO moderate-strong Niña which is bad news for weenies such as myself.

[George001]

Another thing to watch that could throw a wrench into things is how early/late does this Niña peak? The Niña is expected to transition from an east based event to a modoki, if the Niña peaks early like the latest guidance has that would be bad news. However, if the guidance is jumping the gun a bit and that transition to a modoki event is delayed a couple of months, that could make a big difference for the first half of winter. Despite the latest guidance being a bit weaker with the Niña I’m not sold on that just yet, especially given how the subsurface looks. I still think it’s going to be a strong event with the more aggressive guidance ultimately being correct.

[Spartman]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

Another thing to watch that could throw a wrench into things is how early/late does this Niña peak? The Niña is expected to transition from an east based event to a modoki, if the Niña peaks early like the latest guidance has that would be bad news. However, if the guidance is jumping the gun a bit and that transition to a modoki event is delayed a couple of months, that could make a big difference for the first half of winter. Despite the latest guidance being a bit weaker with the Niña I’m not sold on that just yet, especially given how the subsurface looks. I still think it’s going to be a strong event with the more aggressive guidance ultimately being correct.

Or else, 2024-25 would end up as Neutral instead of a Niña.

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just saying....+NAO is most correlated with an increase in geomagnetic wind and solar particles, which peak in the few years following solar max. Regardless, I agree next winter looks mild again.

HM did an extensive write up many years ago on why low geomag correlates with -NAO/-AO. Wish I still had it. It fits with Gawx’s finding that all of our “recent” -NAO/-AO winters (since 79-80) have occurred during a solar minimum with a low number of sunspots

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, George001 said:

The PDO is still up in the air, but it will likely be negative as is typical for moderate to strong Nina’s. These are valid points, and I agree that it looks ugly right now. Some of the latest guidance is trending more towards a moderate peak than strong one, but regardless the solar activity is a strong negative factor for east coast snow prospects. I am much more concerned about that than the raw strength. In the extremely snowy strong La Niña event in 2010-2011, the solar activity was very low, opposite of this year. Id keep an eye on the PDO, it is negative but not as strongly negative as it was earlier in the year despite the Nino falling apart. That’s one thing to look for as a possible wildcard that could work in favor of those rooting for snow on the east coast. Ultimately, right now things are pointing in the direction of a +NAO moderate-strong Niña which is bad news for weenies such as myself.

IMO very good evidence for a strong -PDO this coming winter despite what Mr. Bastardi is saying. It’s strengthening right now. Also looks to be a moderate La Niña at the very least, possibly strong, especially if the IOD goes negative this fall

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO very good evidence for a strong -PDO this coming winter despite what Mr. Bastardi is saying. It’s strengthening right now. Also looks to be a moderate La Niña at the very least, possibly strong, especially if the IOD goes negative this fall

 Indeed:

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

HM did an extensive write up many years ago on why low geomag correlates with -NAO/-AO. Wish I still had it. It fits with Gawx’s finding that all of our “recent” -NAO/-AO winters (since 79-80) have occurred during a solar minimum with a low number of sunspots

 More specifically, I found that all -NAO winters since 1979-80 (only six of them/I define -NAO winters as sub -0.25 since I consider -0.25 to +0.25 neutral NAO) have all occurred when sunspots averaged sub 35. Also, with there having been only 6 of the last 45 winters with a -NAO (only 13%)(1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, 2020-1), the frequency has been way lower than that of the prior 25 year period. 
 

*Edited for correction of typo

Monthly NAO since 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

Monthly sunspots:

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt