2024-2025 La Nina

[raindancewx]

More bullshit Spring weather today. Mid-40s for highs, low elevation rain, graupel, thunder, no snow in town. Even at 5,600 feet I saw some accumulating snow today just outside town. Mountains look amazing with the strength of the April sun, rainbows, and then a fresh coat of heavy snow.

Canadian has a fall peak for a pretty healthy La Nina. It weakens the event east-west, which means a pretty active March is already likely next year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/1/2024 at 6:24 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

CFSv2 ENSO probability index has 2024-25 challenging 1973-74 and 1988-89 for the strongest la nina ever: 

Jesus, we may never catch a break again.

Wow.

[GaWx]

Latest NMME has a -PDO in Dec (no surprise). I see no reason to not remain firm at least as of now on a -PDO next winter.

[Terpeast]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

Latest NMME has a -PDO in Dec (no surprise). I see no reason to not remain firm at least as of now on a -PDO next winter.

Zero signs that the Japanese marine heat wave is ending. Looks like a carbon copy of 2022-23

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Zero signs that the Japanese marine heat wave is ending. Looks like a carbon copy of 2022-23

Yeah, looks like it’s a function of the rapidly warming subtropical oceans. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w

In this study, we evaluate the ocean warming pattern derived from four decades of satellite measurements. We find widespread strong subtropical ocean warming, concentrating mostly on the western ocean basins. In contrast to these observations, studies of paleoclimate suggest that the greatest ocean warming occurs at higher latitudes. By pairing the observed warming pattern with SST evolution in long-term climate simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is constrained by ocean dynamics of surface convergence (downwelling, subtropical gyres) and divergence (upwelling, subpolar gyres) rather than being dominated by internal variabilities, such as the PDO. 
 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ENSO subusurface had backed away from the deep cold for a few days, now it's going back. -6c pool on the most recent TAO/Triton maps. Here is the progression over time. SSTs will likely catch up with the subsurface cold in the coming months.  

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see the long term increase of the WPAC warm pool leads to this becoming another multiyear La Niña event.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/soestwp/announce/news/long-lasting-la-nina-more-common/#:~:text=Multiyear La Niña events have,an unprecedented triple-year event.

 

Multiyear La Niña events have become more common over the last 100 years, according to a new study led by University of Hawai‘i (UH) at Mānoa atmospheric scientist Bin Wang. Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted more than one year, including an unprecedented triple-year event. The study was published this week in Nature Climate Change.

“The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920,” said Bin Wang, emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.

El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, affect weather and ocean conditions, which can, in turn, influence the marine environment and fishing industry in Hawai‘i and throughout the Pacific Ocean. Long-lasting La Niñas could cause persistent climate extremes and devastating weather events, affecting community resilience, tourist industry and agriculture. 

Determining why so many multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common has sparked worldwide discussion among climate scientists, yet answers remain elusive.

Looking to past events for clues

Wang and co-authors examined 20 La Niña events from 1920-2022 to investigate the fundamental reasons behind the historic change of the multiyear La Niña. Some long-lasting La Niñas occurred after a super El Niño, which the researchers expected due to the massive discharge of heat from the upper-ocean following an El Niño. However, three recent multiyear La Niña episodes (2007–08, 2010–11, and 2020–22) did not follow this pattern. 

They discovered these events are fueled by warming in the western Pacific Ocean and steep gradients in sea surface temperature from the western to central Pacific.

“Warming in the western Pacific triggers the rapid onset and persistence of these events,” said Wang. “Additionally, our study revealed that multiyear La Niña are distinguished from single-year La Niña by a conspicuous onset rate, which foretells its accumulative intensity and climate impacts.”

Results from complex computer simulations of climate support the observed link between multiyear La Niña events and western Pacific warming.

Preparing for the future

The new findings shed light on the factors conducive to escalating extreme La Niña in a future warming world. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe, if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

“Our perception moves beyond the current notion that links extreme El Niño and La Niña to the eastern Pacific warming and attributes the increasing extreme El Niño and La Niña to different sources,” Wang added. “The knowledge gained from our study offers emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties in projecting future changes of extreme La Niña, which may help us better prepare for what lies ahead.”

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Updated CPC ENSO Probability: 

It's looking like a late fall/early winter peak.

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see the long term increase of the WPAC warm pool leads to this becoming another multiyear La Niña event.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/soestwp/announce/news/long-lasting-la-nina-more-common/#:~:text=Multiyear La Niña events have,an unprecedented triple-year event.

 

Multiyear La Niña events have become more common over the last 100 years, according to a new study led by University of Hawai‘i (UH) at Mānoa atmospheric scientist Bin Wang. Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted more than one year, including an unprecedented triple-year event. The study was published this week in Nature Climate Change.

 This source using the word "unprecedented" for a triple year event seems overly dramatic to me as these four were triples:

- 2020-1 through 2022-3

- 1998-9 through 2000-1

- 1973-4 through 1975-6

- 1908-9 through 1910-1

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

[PhiEaglesfan712]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Using the word "unprecedented" for a triple year event seems overly dramatic to me as these four were triples:

- 2020-1 through 2022-3

- 1998-9 through 2000-1

- 1973-4 through 1975-6

- 1908-9 through 1910-1

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

1915-16 to 1917-18 and 1954-55 to 1956-57 can be considered triples as well. Both had strong 2nd year events, surrounded by weaker Year 1 and 3 events. So, 6 triple-year la ninas in over 115 years.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 This source using the word "unprecedented" for a triple year event seems overly dramatic to me as these four were triples:

- 2020-1 through 2022-3

- 1998-9 through 2000-1

- 1973-4 through 1975-6

- 1908-9 through 1910-1

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

It was unprecedented since it’s the first satellite and modern bouy era 3 year La Nina to follow an ENSO neutral to borderline weak El Niño peaking at only +0.5 in 19-20. You will notice that the ones in the late 90s and early to mid 70s followed much stronger El Niños. The reliability of the 1908 to 1910 event isn’t as strong as the modern era since we didn’t have all the observation tools we have today.

 

https://research.noaa.gov/2023/11/07/recent-triple-dip-la-nina-upends-current-understanding-of-enso/#:~:text=“There were parts of the,leading to food security issues 

What caused the 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niña?

Triple-dip La Niñas are not new, with particularly strong ones occurring in 1973–1976 and 1998–2001. However, these two previous events developed in the wake of especially strong El Niños, which were thought to be precursors for triple-dip La Niñas. The leading theory was that strong El Niños cause a significant loss of heat from the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the atmosphere and to higher latitudes, leaving a large ocean heat deficit that can take years to recover. However, the 2020–2023 La Niña was unique in that it did not follow a strong El Niño, causing researchers to reevaluate current understanding of how these extended La Niñas develop.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was unprecedented since it’s the first satellite and modern bouy era 3 year La Nina to follow an ENSO neutral to borderline weak El Niño peaking at only +0.5 in 19-20. You will notice that the ones in the late 90s and early to mid 70s followed much stronger El Niños. The reliability of the 1908 to 1910 event isn’t as strong as the modern era since we didn’t have all the observation tools we have today. 

Chris,

 1. If that's what the writer meant by "unprecedented", it was poorly worded imo.

 2. The paper says: “The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920,”

 If the pre-satellite/modern era buoy isn't that reliable, why are they analyzing all of the way back to 1920?

 

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

 1. If that's what the writer meant by "unprecedented", it was poorly worded imo.

 2. The paper says: “The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920,”

 If the pre-satellite/modern era buoy isn't that reliable, why are they analyzing all of the way back to 1920?

 

I didn’t say that pre-1950 ENSO data wasn’t reliable. Just that we have more complete  monitoring since then. There was more missing data the further back closer to 1900 and the late 1800s. So estimates and reconstructions were employed.

I am not sure why you make such a point about the term unprecedented since it was the first such event since 1950 when we have more complete data.

Plus it seems a bit peculiar to make point about the way a word is used rather than the actual substance of the study.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'd say the 1954-57 (end date may be late 56) la nina event would be the closest comparison to 2020-23. The mid-50's la nina event was preceded by a disjointed triple el nino, with the last 2 years (1952-53 and 1953-54) being very weak. Plus, the third year of each la nina (56-57 and 22-23) dissipated early and transitioned into strong el ninos. Although, it looks like the trend will end, as 2024-25 is likely to be a strong la nina, while 1958-59 was still a weak el nino.

[csnavywx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was unprecedented since it’s the first satellite and modern bouy era 3 year La Nina to follow an ENSO neutral to borderline weak El Niño peaking at only +0.5 in 19-20. You will notice that the ones in the late 90s and early to mid 70s followed much stronger El Niños. The reliability of the 1908 to 1910 event isn’t as strong as the modern era since we didn’t have all the observation tools we have today.

 

https://research.noaa.gov/2023/11/07/recent-triple-dip-la-nina-upends-current-understanding-of-enso/#:~:text=“There were parts of the,leading to food security issues 

What caused the 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niña?

Triple-dip La Niñas are not new, with particularly strong ones occurring in 1973–1976 and 1998–2001. However, these two previous events developed in the wake of especially strong El Niños, which were thought to be precursors for triple-dip La Niñas. The leading theory was that strong El Niños cause a significant loss of heat from the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the atmosphere and to higher latitudes, leaving a large ocean heat deficit that can take years to recover. However, the 2020–2023 La Niña was unique in that it did not follow a strong El Niño, causing researchers to reevaluate current understanding of how these extended La Niñas develop.

Weird that they classify those two periods as triple dips. 73-76 looks like a bog standard double dip to me (with a cold neutral phase in between). Does 98-01 qualify either? The 3rd "event" is just two < -0.5 trimonthlies. Pretty sure you need three here to officially qualify but I could be misremembering.

1908-11 or 1890s looks like the last time we had one.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Triple-year la ninas color coded

Weak La Nina:

Moderate La Nina:

Strong La Nina:

1908-09, 1909-10, 1910-11

1915-16, 1916-17, 1917-18

1954-55, 1955-56, 1956-57

1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76

1998-99, 1999-00, 2000-01

2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

I didn’t say that pre-1950 ENSO data wasn’t reliable. Just that we have more complete  monitoring since then. There was more missing data the further back closer to 1900 and the late 1800s. So estimates and reconstructions were employed.

I am not sure why you make such a point about the term unprecedented since it was the first such event since 1950 when we have more complete data.

Plus it seems a bit peculiar to make point about the way a word is used rather than the actual substance of the study.

 Chris,

 My main point is that I feel the article mentioning “unprecedented” for a triple could have been written better. It kind of sounded sensationalist to me, but that’s just my opinion. Regardless, I agree with you that the study to which it referred has some valid points. So, I’ll let this go.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I will say this, if there was one thing unprecedented about the 2020-23 La Nina, it's the fact that it maintained the same strength for all 3 years. I can see an ENSO Neutral state lasting for several years, but maintaining a la nina event at -1 to -1.2C for 3 consecutive years should seem nearly impossible. I highly doubt something like that is going to happen again in our lifetimes.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Chris,

 My main point is that I feel the article mentioning “unprecedented” for a triple could have been written better. It kind of sounded sensationalist to me, but that’s just my opinion. Regardless, I agree with you that the study to which it referred has some valid points. So, I’ll let this go.

I hear you. Sometimes press releases are written in a way that doesn’t always directly relate to the valid points that you mention. 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I will say this, if there was one thing unprecedented about the 2020-23 La Nina, it's the fact that it maintained the same strength for all 3 years. I can see an ENSO Neutral state lasting for several years, but maintaining a la nina event at -1 to -1.2C for 3 consecutive years should seem nearly impossible. I highly doubt something like that is going to happen again in our lifetimes.

 Interesting observation about all three peaks being within only 0.2C of each other. I’m having trouble even finding three consecutive neutral peaks within only a 0.2C range.

Edit: I just noticed the range is actually 0.3 (1.0 to 1.3). Regardless, your point still stands.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Interesting observation about all three peaks being within only 0.2C of each other. I’m having trouble even finding three consecutive neutral peaks within only a 0.2C range.

The evolution 2020-2023 triple dip La Niña was different from 1998-2001 in several ways. First, this most recent one didn’t follow a very strong to super El Niño event. Second, it was driven more by the stronger SST contrast from the WPAC to EPAC leading to stronger trade winds. 
 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JD038843#:~:text=Subsurface cooling in the equatorial,SST) contrast along the equator.

This study compares the evolution of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies as well as predictions for the two most recent triple-dip La Niña events in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023. Subsurface cooling in the equatorial Pacific was stronger and more persistent during 1998–2001. In contrast, surface easterly winds were stronger during 2020–2023 as was the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) contrast along the equator. We argue that in the absence of appreciable equatorial Pacific heat discharge, persistent and strong surface trade winds and a strengthened mean zonal SST contrast across the tropical Pacific contributed to the development of the 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niña. In terms of the subsurface layer heat budget, the growth and maintenance of unusually cold SSTs during the triple-dip La Niña in 1998–2001 were mainly the result of ocean vertical entrainment and diffusion, as well as meridional advection, associated with enhanced equatorial upwelling; while for the triple-dip La Niña in 2020–2023, zonal advection was the largest contributor. The two events were mostly well predicted by multi-model averages at 1–8 months lead times. We hypothesize that mean state change with enhanced zonal SST contrast and trade winds over the last several decades altered the physical processes associated with the growth and maintenance of the most recent La Niña, affecting its predictability. Successful prediction in real-time of the 2020–2023 event more than half a year in advance was surprising because there was little memory in oceanic heat content which is often considered a key predictor.

Key Points

 

• The physical processes responsible for the evolution of the 1998–2001 and 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niñas were different

• Ocean heat content as a precursor was more important for the predictability of the 1998–2001 La Niña than the 2020–2023 La Niña

• Stronger surface easterlies and zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific contributed to the predictability of the 2020–2023 La Niña

 

Plain Language Summary

El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the strongest interannual variability on Earth and the main source of global seasonal climate predictability. Here, we examine the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the tropical Pacific during two triple-dip La Niñas in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023, comparing the physical processes that gave rise to them and the skill in predicting them. Our results show that the processes giving rise to these events were different and likely affected by mean state changes in the tropical Pacific. In particular, the easterly trade winds and zonal SST contrast across the basin have strengthened that played a crucial role in the growth, maintenance, and prediction of the La Niña in 2020–2023. The evolution of the La Niña in 2020–2023 was successfully predicted in real-time more than half a year in advance, which is surprising because there was little memory in oceanic heat content which is often considered a key predictor.

 

[GaWx]

 I just noticed that on a RONI basis, the three dips of 2020-23 aren’t quite as similar as ONI since the three dips are -1.52, -1.24, and -1.08 (range 0.44) though 0.44 is still pretty narrow.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

[George001]

On 4/11/2024 at 1:12 PM, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see the long term increase of the WPAC warm pool leads to this becoming another multiyear La Niña event.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/soestwp/announce/news/long-lasting-la-nina-more-common/#:~:text=Multiyear La Niña events have,an unprecedented triple-year event.

 

Multiyear La Niña events have become more common over the last 100 years, according to a new study led by University of Hawai‘i (UH) at Mānoa atmospheric scientist Bin Wang. Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted more than one year, including an unprecedented triple-year event. The study was published this week in Nature Climate Change.

“The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920,” said Bin Wang, emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.

El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, affect weather and ocean conditions, which can, in turn, influence the marine environment and fishing industry in Hawai‘i and throughout the Pacific Ocean. Long-lasting La Niñas could cause persistent climate extremes and devastating weather events, affecting community resilience, tourist industry and agriculture. 

Determining why so many multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common has sparked worldwide discussion among climate scientists, yet answers remain elusive.

Looking to past events for clues

Wang and co-authors examined 20 La Niña events from 1920-2022 to investigate the fundamental reasons behind the historic change of the multiyear La Niña. Some long-lasting La Niñas occurred after a super El Niño, which the researchers expected due to the massive discharge of heat from the upper-ocean following an El Niño. However, three recent multiyear La Niña episodes (2007–08, 2010–11, and 2020–22) did not follow this pattern. 

They discovered these events are fueled by warming in the western Pacific Ocean and steep gradients in sea surface temperature from the western to central Pacific.

“Warming in the western Pacific triggers the rapid onset and persistence of these events,” said Wang. “Additionally, our study revealed that multiyear La Niña are distinguished from single-year La Niña by a conspicuous onset rate, which foretells its accumulative intensity and climate impacts.”

Results from complex computer simulations of climate support the observed link between multiyear La Niña events and western Pacific warming.

Preparing for the future

The new findings shed light on the factors conducive to escalating extreme La Niña in a future warming world. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe, if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

“Our perception moves beyond the current notion that links extreme El Niño and La Niña to the eastern Pacific warming and attributes the increasing extreme El Niño and La Niña to different sources,” Wang added. “The knowledge gained from our study offers emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties in projecting future changes of extreme La Niña, which may help us better prepare for what lies ahead.”

This is interesting, so basically climate change is leading to more La Ninas and stronger ones? I remember reading something about there being a link between more extreme ENSO events in general and climate change. That kind of makes sense, often there is overlap between stronger events and multi year Nina’s. I’m curious if climate change is causing stronger Nina’s which in turn leads to more multi year Nina’s, or is it the other way around? Regardless, in terms of sensible weather this doesn’t matter, as either way it would result in more multi year Ninas as discussed by this study.

[bluewave]

On 4/9/2024 at 7:11 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like it’s a function of the rapidly warming subtropical oceans. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w

In this study, we evaluate the ocean warming pattern derived from four decades of satellite measurements. We find widespread strong subtropical ocean warming, concentrating mostly on the western ocean basins. In contrast to these observations, studies of paleoclimate suggest that the greatest ocean warming occurs at higher latitudes. By pairing the observed warming pattern with SST evolution in long-term climate simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is constrained by ocean dynamics of surface convergence (downwelling, subtropical gyres) and divergence (upwelling, subpolar gyres) rather than being dominated by internal variabilities, such as the PDO. 
 

 

 

A recent paper was just published on this remarkable warming  in the North Pacific SST patterns since the 2014 marine heatwave.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable.

In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF.

 

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, the April Plumes off of the SEAS5 (Euro) backed off a stronger Nina from March's plumes.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202404010000&nino_area=NINO3-4

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, the April Plumes off of the SEAS5 (Euro) backed off a stronger Nina from March's plumes.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202404010000&nino_area=NINO3-4

1. The Euro has a warm bias, but that is a significant warming in 3.4 vs Mar. The mean isn’t even La Niña through Oct and is already leveling off. It was already down to weak La Niña Aug/Sep in last month’s run. Taking into account its warm bias probably translates this latest forecast to weak La Niña vs moderate La Niña in prior forecast.

2. Latest BoM, similar to recent runs, is also only down to -0.1/neutral for Sep. But it was way too warm for this past fall/winter as we know though longterm average bias had been neutral before then with some years too cool and others too warm.

3. Latest Meteo-France is cold neutral for Aug/Sep though that’s actually colder than the warm neutral of the prior run for Aug. Regardless, it was way too warm for last fall/winter, almost as bad as BoM.

4. Latest JMA, which historically has averaged minimal bias, and did fairly well last fall/winter other than being too warm in its Aug 2023 forecast, has warmed from borderline weak/mod La Niña in Aug to borderline cold neutral/weak La Niña in Aug/Sep. It recently had been running too cold.

5. Latest UKMET maintains its high end moderate La Niña for Aug of its last month’s run and maintains that into Sep. It did very well last fall/winter. So, I’d give this model and the JMA a little extra attention/weight.

6. Regardless, RONI is still running quite a bit colder than ONI at last check. So, the ONI progs will need to be adjusted colder by ~0.3 to 0.5 until further notice to get implied RONI progs.

7. Putting all of this together suggests to me that the best chance for fall/winter is weak to moderate La Niña ONI and moderate to possibly strong La Niña RONI. Confidence this far out though is low, especially with last year's best two (UKMET and JMA) ~1 C apart.

8. PDO is forecasted to be solidly negative for fall/winter with marine heatwave east of Japan still there along with neutral to slightly BN off the west coast of N America. Daily WCS PDO has fallen substantially recently to ~-1, which likely translates to ~-1.75 for NOAA PDO.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 4/8/2024 at 12:25 PM, Terpeast said:

Zero signs that the Japanese marine heat wave is ending. Looks like a carbon copy of 2022-23

Eternal pain.

[Typhoon Tip]

All we have to do is reverse the last 3 decades of accelerated global warming ...thus, returning the total manifold of base circulation tendencies to the previous paradigm ... The "Japan marine heat wave" will go ahead and disperse

should be easy to do  

[rclab]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Eternal pain.

 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All we have to do is reverse the last 3 decades of accelerated global warming ...thus, returning the total manifold of base circulation tendencies to the previous paradigm ... The "Japan marine heat wave" will go ahead and disperse

should be easy to do  

‘Sarcasm’ no matter how justified only adds to the eternal pain. As always ….

[GaWx]

 I just realized that the difference between ONI and RONI rose to a whopping 0.64C for JFM, the highest yet! Whereas ONI was +1.50, RONI was already down to +0.86. This large difference implies the importance of focusing on RONI to negate the portion of ONI that warmed strictly due to recent strong warming in the overall ocean tropics outside of Nino 3.4 as opposed to the warming related to El Niño, itself. For similar reasons using RONI would allow for the underlying intensity of the expected upcoming La Niña to be much better reflected.

 

RONI:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt