40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 16 hours ago, mitchnick said: My thinking was more to get rid of the warmth in the western Pac ex Japan. Look at the Cansips, for example. It's the only model that goes out to January, 2025 I believe. Look how the equatorial waters around and north of Australia, including the IO, have cooled vs now. Heck, even the Atlantic basin isn't that unusually warm on the whole. I certainly can't know if the Cansips is correct, but I think it's at least a start of a way out or enough cooling to make a difference. That is a Modoki La Nina and a 7th consecutive shitty winter here in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is a Modoki La Nina and a 7th consecutive shitty winter here in all likelihood. Yep. But as I posted about a month ago in the El Niño thread, sacrificing 1 more winter in an effort to cool the IO and western equatorial Pacific might be worth it for future winters. Of course at my age, looking forward to additional winters could be a grave mistake. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Sign me up for La/EL Nothing..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 hours ago, mitchnick said: Yep. But as I posted about a month ago in the El Niño thread, sacrificing 1 more winter in an effort to cool the IO and western equatorial Pacific might be worth it for future winters. Of course at my age, looking forward to additional winters could be a grave mistake. Hopefully we have a record tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I think that after the Sun started quieting down after the 1990s, we started getting more La Nina's: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 There’s already articles about the niña supercharging hurricane season. https://www.yahoo.com/news/already-hurricane-season-waters-atlantic-150024951.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: There’s already articles about the niña supercharging hurricane season. https://www.yahoo.com/news/already-hurricane-season-waters-atlantic-150024951.html 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully we have a record tropical season. As the globe warms further, I wonder how much increased warmth in the tropics will increase tropical activity. Arctic has warmed much more than other regions overall over the last few decades. So, even as the tropics get warmer, what if they overall continue to not warm as quickly as waters at much higher latitudes? Related to this, I’m familiar with the idea that ~79F is often the temp needed to allow for TC genesis. Assuming GW continues, will that temp increase? I’m sort of thinking in a RONI kind of way. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, GaWx said: As the globe warms further, I wonder how much increased warmth in the tropics will increase tropical activity. Arctic has warmed much more than other regions overall over the last few decades. So, even as the tropics get warmer, what if they overall continue to not warm as quickly as waters at much higher latitudes? Related to this, I’m familiar with the idea that ~79F is often the temp needed to allow for TC genesis. Assuming GW continues, will that temp increase? I’m sort of thinking in a RONI kind of way. Any thoughts? I don't think its relative...the 79-80* requirement shouldn't change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 A hot summer may be likely. Here is Summer patterns of all 19 La Nina's minus El Nino's since the PDO went negative, and AMO went positive in ~95-98. That trough up north over the Bering Strait and Alaska is a very warm pattern for the CONUS: 0.5 is a high correlation for what's going on far away in the Summer months. Here's the long wave connection 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think its relative...the 79-80* requirement shouldn't change. I think it is relative, there are occasionally storms that form over waters below 26 degrees at higher latitudes (although there may be baroclinic enhancement at higher latitudes). A slightly cooler atmosphere probably reduces the heat necessary to drive the Carnot engine (less static stability), A warming atmosphere, and warming waters over the heat sink portion/downward motion part of the Hadley cell should raise the requirement for SST, it would seem. The question to me is if the negative effects of warming non-tropical oceans and a warmer atmosphere increases at the same rate the positive effects of warming MDR SST. At least for now the positives of warmer SST seems to be outweighing any negatives of warming away from the MDR. CFS ASO doesn't look abnormally active judging by precip. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A hot summer may be likely. Here is Summer patterns of all 19 La Nina's minus El Nino's since the PDO went negative, and AMO went positive in ~95-98. That trough up north over the Bering Strait and Alaska is a very warm pattern for the CONUS: 0.5 is a high correlation for what's going on far away in the Summer months. Here's the long wave connection Yes, this is exactly what I'm looking at, a hot and dry summer like 1983, 1995, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Yes, this is exactly what I'm looking at, a hot and dry summer like 1983, 1995, 2010. I was leaving Kill Devil Hills, NC the morning of Saturday 8/20/83 as fog was coming off the ocean over the dunes (never saw that before or since.) My friend's car didn't have a/c and we were constantly stuck in traffic. Oh the misery. By the time I got home south of Baltimore, BWI was peaking at 105. Summer of 95? I'll do that again if I can get another winter of 95/96. Ironically, I don't remember the heat from summer of 2010. Lol But I agree this will be a hot one unless Nino remants keep it wet, in which case, we lessen the heat but replace it with a sauna. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I think it is relative, there are occasionally storms that form over waters below 26 degrees at higher latitudes (although there may be baroclinic enhancement at higher latitudes). A slightly cooler atmosphere probably reduces the heat necessary to drive the Carnot engine (less static stability), A warming atmosphere, and warming waters over the heat sink portion/downward motion part of the Hadley cell should raise the requirement for SST, it would seem. The question to me is if the negative effects of warming non-tropical oceans and a warmer atmosphere increases at the same rate the positive effects of warming MDR SST. At least for now the positives of warmer SST seems to be outweighing any negatives of warming away from the MDR. CFS ASO doesn't look abnormally active judging by precip. Tropical systems bring excessive heat from the tropics and move it to higher latitudes. With the Arctic warming much more strongly than lower latitudes due to AGW, there's less heat imbalance. Shouldn't that factor alone lead to reductions rather than increases in overall tropical activity? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Tropical systems bring excessive heat from the tropics and move it to higher latitudes. With the Arctic warming much more strongly than lower latitudes due to AGW, there's less heat imbalance. Shouldn't that factor alone lead to reductions rather than increases in overall tropical activity? That is what I am implying. Carnot Engines were a thing in steam powered power plants, if the heat sink warms and nothing else changes the process becomes less efficient. A steam powered ship is more efficient in cooler waters, and the crews working in them were much more comfortable as well. https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee102/node/1942#:~:text=The Carnot Efficiency is the,reservoir operates ( TCold ). Edit to add a picture. Note the beard, just as I was about to be transferred to sea, beards for NCO's were disallowed. I had to pass an interview with 'Mo Gamma' and the CO to be allowed to operate the heat source. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Tropical systems bring excessive heat from the tropics and move it to higher latitudes. With the Arctic warming much more strongly than lower latitudes due to AGW, there's less heat imbalance. Shouldn't that factor alone lead to reductions rather than increases in overall tropical activity? This has been a topic of discussion between me and another colleague. Tropical activity is the balancer to bring heat and moisture to high latitudes but with that temp increase in the northern oceans it is not nearly as imbalanced. He mentioned one thing that has increased dramatically over the last decade or so are heavy rain events. So in other words the Earth seems to be trying to rebalance itself in a different way than what it used to through tropical activity due to this gradient not being nearly as prolific. How it plays out going forward is really anyone's guess. It probably still does lead to stronger storms when they do form cause of the amount of fuel but overall less tropical activity may be the way to go or we see one basin just go bonkers while the others stay silent instead of spreading out the activity over the basins. There is no reason the WPAC should have had nearly half the typical amount of tropical activity in an El Nino year. The southern hemisphere has been on a decline for quite some time with overall tropical activity as well. There should not have been as active of a year in the EPAC at the tail end of a triple dip La Nina. Something just seems off right now with how it 'should be'. That is not to say this year won't have an above average hurricane season in the Atlantic though. While it is not all too uncommon we did have quite a few storms more than we typically would see in an El Nino year in the Atlantic, even with them following a similar path to a typical El Nino year (north and OTS). The Atlantic is right back up to levels we saw last year when it was extremely warm and for it to be at this time of year is a little worrisome to see as temps should only go up from here on. It looks like a decent tri-pole setup as well, so it should be rather interesting to see what comes of this. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 12 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I think it is relative, there are occasionally storms that form over waters below 26 degrees at higher latitudes (although there may be baroclinic enhancement at higher latitudes). A slightly cooler atmosphere probably reduces the heat necessary to drive the Carnot engine (less static stability), A warming atmosphere, and warming waters over the heat sink portion/downward motion part of the Hadley cell should raise the requirement for SST, it would seem. The question to me is if the negative effects of warming non-tropical oceans and a warmer atmosphere increases at the same rate the positive effects of warming MDR SST. At least for now the positives of warmer SST seems to be outweighing any negatives of warming away from the MDR. CFS ASO doesn't look abnormally active judging by precip. Maybe....but more often than not, if a storm doesn't develop over 80*F SST, it's either because TCHP is insufficient (depth), or the mid levels are unfavorable due to shear/dry air...but this goes back to my theory about CC causing more shear over the Atlantic basin downstream from the Pacific..perhaps that is nature's way of balancing out a reduced need for heat redistribution in a warming planet where the rate of warming near the poles is most rapid, which supports your idea. Interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Here's a good free review article on tropical cyclone frequency. Bottom-line: we don't know whether the number of storms will change with climate change. The 78F threshold will tend to increase however because the upper troposphere is also warming. Has to be warmer at the surface to generate the same amount of convection in a warmer world. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2021EF002275 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 On 2/18/2024 at 10:08 AM, mitchnick said: Yep. But as I posted about a month ago in the El Niño thread, sacrificing 1 more winter in an effort to cool the IO and western equatorial Pacific might be worth it for future winters. Of course at my age, looking forward to additional winters could be a grave mistake. cant imagine being 89 and still dealing with crap winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, Ji said: cant imagine being 89 and still dealing with crap winters Just don’t Ji …… enjoy what ever time you have left. As always …… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I'm interested to learn when the El Nino will transition to a La Nina -- what kind of impact will that have on tornadoes this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 As a general rule, any storm in March or April that is cold enough, south enough and strong enough to bring snow to the valleys of New Mexico is likely to be quite prolific at tornado production. It's how the cold air mixes with the dry air and wet air over the state, and then how that blend mixes with much more humid / hot air to the East. Any air mass to the east in front of an orphaned cold system over the desert will warm dramatically. We should have some pretty powerful cold systems here. The April 29, 2017 tornado outbreak was instigated by a storm powerful enough to bring accumulating snow to the valley floors in NM - mid afternoon no less - after we had hit highs in the 70s/80 many times in Spring already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 might be wrong thread, but how does what happen in the atlantic during tropical season affect winter in the EC? why does more ace have a + correlation w ec snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: might be wrong thread, but how does what happen in the atlantic during tropical season affect winter in the EC? why does more ace have a + correlation w ec snowfall The historical data (each year's ACE and each winter's snowfall by EC city) is out there in case someone wanted to see if there's any significant correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Something will balance out the Pacific eventually....the super El Nino of 2016 was the impetus to correct that crazy 2015 western ridging that brought the 100" in 30 days to Boston.....and as many have pointed out, we have been stuck with that western warm pool ever since. Maybe the tropics in conjunction with the emergent La Nina flip it this year...who knows. But I am betting on mother nature finding a way, CC be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Something will balance out the Pacific eventually....the super El Nino of 2016 was the impetus to correct that crazy 2015 western ridging that brought the 100" in 30 days to Boston.....and as many have pointed out, we have been stuck with that western warm pool ever since. Maybe the tropics in conjunction with the emergent La Nina flip it this year...who knows. But I am betting on mother nature finding a way, CC be damned. That's why I've been rooting for a super Nina. Current long range Enso forecasts from the Cansips and Cfs have the Indian Ocean cooling to near normal on balance thanks to a strong Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 33 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's why I've been rooting for a super Nina. Current long range Enso forecasts from the Cansips and Cfs have the Indian Ocean cooling to near normal on balance thanks to a strong Niña. Who knows, if the tropical season is uber-active, we could get the added bonus and have a decent winter next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 On 2/21/2024 at 2:50 AM, GaWx said: The historical data (each year's ACE and each winter's snowfall by EC city) is out there in case someone wanted to see if there's any significant correlation. I was curious because I had never analyzed this. The following analysis of the top 10 ACE seasons suggests to me that a weak to moderate correlation of ACE to BOS/NYC snowfall the next cold season quite possibly exists, especially BOS, though ACE definitely shouldn’t be weighted heavily: Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season 1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”; mod La Nina 2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”; wk La Nina 1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”; mod La Nina 1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”; neutral 1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”; mod La Nina 2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”; wk El Niño 2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”; mod La Niña 1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”; neutral 1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”; neutral 1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”; strng La Nina AVG NYC for top 10 ACE: 35.1” vs 28.5” mean of all years since 1868-9 or 23% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (including record heaviest), 4 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow —————————————- AVG BOS for top 10 ACE: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean all years since 1890-1 or 33% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (both in top 5), 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow ———————————— ACE: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is,into a single index value. NYC:https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx BOS: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box *Edit: This is a small sample but is it possible that a moderate La Niña has a notable correlation to heavier snow in BOS and/or NYC? Anyone know? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 21 hours ago, GaWx said: I was curious because I had never analyzed this. The following analysis of the top 10 ACE seasons suggests to me that a weak to moderate correlation of ACE to BOS/NYC snowfall the next cold season quite possibly exists, especially BOS, though ACE definitely shouldn’t be weighted heavily: Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season 1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”; mod La Nina 2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”; wk La Nina 1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”; mod La Nina 1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”; neutral 1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”; mod La Nina 2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”; wk El Niño 2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”; mod La Niña 1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”; neutral 1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”; neutral 1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”; strng La Nina AVG NYC for top 10 ACE: 35.1” vs 28.5” mean of all years since 1868-9 or 23% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (including record heaviest), 4 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow —————————————- AVG BOS for top 10 ACE: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean all years since 1890-2 or 33% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (both in top 5), 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow ———————————— ACE: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is,into a single index value. NYC:https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx BOS: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box *Edit: This is a small sample but is it possible that a moderate La Niña has a notable correlation to heavier snow in BOS and/or NYC? Anyone know? The correlation with ACE only works during La Nina winter seasons, according to Raindance. It looks like next year should at least approach normal snowfall for the region, assuming a high ACE, even with like a 1998 scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Folks, don't do it to yourselves again... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 OHC steep drop continues with it down to -0.2, an indicator of a good chance for La Niña later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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