2024-2025 La Nina

[George001]

My early thoughts for ENSO analogs for 2024-2025 are based on a combination on historical precedence of similar enso analogs to this year and long range guidance. Right now, I like 73-74, 10-11 and 88-89. 73-74 and 10-11 are La Niña winters following strong or super ninos, and are only a couple years removed from the end of a multi year nina event. Now there is still the spring predictability barrier being an issue, so it is possible that the models are incorrect about the development of La nina.

However, given the -PDO, collapse of the subsurface warmth and historical precedence following a nino this strong, I am favoring the development of La Niña in the May-June timeframe. If this turns out to be correct, I would expect the La Niña to strengthen from weak (-0.5 to -1 ONI) to strong (< -1.5 ONI) by fall. There is some guidance that keeps the La Niña as a weak event, but I am highly skeptical of that. 

[Terpeast]

Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23. 

With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning to descend, we will likely have less blocking than even 2022-23. With all the cold air bottled up at the pole/Siberia or again dumping to the western NA, I'm thinking AN to much AN temps across the entire CONUS except maybe near normal over the Pac NW. East coast will likely be much AN+++ with 60s being commonplace, with strings of 70 degree days interspersed throughout even the deepest winter months. 

Warmest winter on record across the east? Even higher chance of that happening than this year and last year. 

[GaWx]

Just over one year ago George started the El Niño thread and it’s already up to 266 pages! Will this thread be that long one year from now? We’ll see!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here is a time sensitive TAO/Triton subsurface anomaly map

With a -3c pocket currently in the central subsurface, this does favor the transition into La Nina. 

Here is CPC's latest update:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

[michsnowfreak]

Though Id be fine with neutral, Im also more than fine with a Nina next winter. We do far better in Ninas than Ninos in Michigan. I guess its all the difference in climates, but its crazy to see how midatlantic folks root on strong Ninos when that is literally THE worst winter you can draw up in the Great Lakes. I would argue 2023-24 has been the worst winter imaginable in northern MI/MN/WI, though Id need to do a lot of research to back it up (talking lack of snow + warmth). In southeast MI we had a good January and the rest has been terrible (Detroit has had 19.9" snow so far but 17.0" of this fell in Jan!). But all the bad I can say about this winter, there is not a single strong Nino on record that has been a good winter here. Im assuming the fondness of strong Ninos for some has to do with the heightened chance of east coast snowstorms?

 

There are a few duds, but by and large Ninas are snowy winters here and they are often front-loaded. Its quite common for a hot summer and mild Fall to abruptly give way to a cold, snowy December in a Nina year. We also see an increased risk of some real good winter storms in Ninas. And unlike Ninos with their strength discrepancy (weak nino can often be a good winter, strong nino ALWAYS sucks), a snowy winter is attainable in any strength of Nina.

 

Of course everything is speculation at this point, but I look forward to following this thread throughout the year, thanks for starting it George! 

 

[George001]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Though Id be fine with neutral, Im also more than fine with a Nina next winter. We do far better in Ninas than Ninos in Michigan. I guess its all the difference in climates, but its crazy to see how midatlantic folks root on strong Ninos when that is literally THE worst winter you can draw up in the Great Lakes. I would argue 2023-24 has been the worst winter imaginable in northern MI/MN/WI, though Id need to do a lot of research to back it up (talking lack of snow + warmth). In southeast MI we had a good January and the rest has been terrible (Detroit has had 19.9" snow so far but 17.0" of this fell in Jan!). But all the bad I can say about this winter, there is not a single strong Nino on record that has been a good winter here. Im assuming the fondness of strong Ninos for some has to do with the heightened chance of east coast snowstorms?

 

There are a few duds, but by and large Ninas are snowy winters here and they are often front-loaded. Its quite common for a hot summer and mild Fall to abruptly give way to a cold, snowy December in a Nina year. We also see an increased risk of some real good winter storms in Ninas. And unlike Ninos with their strength discrepancy (weak nino can often be a good winter, strong nino ALWAYS sucks), a snowy winter is attainable in any strength of Nina.

 

Of course everything is speculation at this point, but I look forward to following this thread throughout the year, thanks for starting it George! 

 

I agree with you, I would rather roll the dice on a La Niña than a strong or super nino. Once it became clear that the ongoing El Niño would become as strong as it ended up being, I immediately lowered my expectations for winter in eastern Mass. this winter has been less snowy and warmer than even I thought it would be. The result was unfortunate, but it was interesting to track and see how the El Niño developed. This La Niña will be interesting to track as well. Strong ninos tend to be warm and wet in the northern half of the US, and this winter has proven to be no exception to that. 

[George001]

One thing im going to be keeping an eye on is how active the hurricane season ends up being. Raindance mentioned a couple years ago that there was a moderate positive correlation between the ACE and east coast snowfall during La Niña winters. 

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

I agree with you, I would rather roll the dice on a La Niña than a strong or super nino. Once it became clear that the ongoing El Niño would become as strong as it ended up being, I immediately lowered my expectations for winter in eastern Mass. this winter has been less snowy and warmer than even I thought it would be. The result was unfortunate, but it was interesting to track and see how the El Niño developed. This La Niña will be interesting to track as well. Strong ninos tend to be warm and wet in the northern half of the US, and this winter has proven to be no exception to that. 

See your area is where it gets more "gray" for me. Because I see the want for noreasters, but you also can get a lot more sustained winter than the midatlantic. At least bouts of it. So I just dont see the romance of strong ninos.

 

While no doubt this winter is worse than most would have imagined, the fact that the northern US would have a subpar winter (by each areas standards) is the closest thing to a guarantee you can ever make in the weather. Strong Ninos are usually warm and dry here, but we had an extremely wet/snowy January which was the only saving grace this winter. Feb has been bone dry.

 

On the flip side, La Ninas usually bring PLENTY of fun to the northern US, but also a big rollercoaster (even more than typical). 

[ORH_wxman]

54 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

See your area is where it gets more "gray" for me. Because I see the want for noreasters, but you also can get a lot more sustained winter than the midatlantic. At least bouts of it. So I just dont see the romance of strong ninos.

 

While no doubt this winter is worse than most would have imagined, the fact that the northern US would have a subpar winter (by each areas standards) is the closest thing to a guarantee you can ever make in the weather. Strong Ninos are usually warm and dry here, but we had an extremely wet/snowy January which was the only saving grace this winter. Feb has been bone dry.

 

On the flip side, La Ninas usually bring PLENTY of fun to the northern US, but also a big rollercoaster (even more than typical). 

Most of New England has a very weak correlation to ENSO when it comes to snowfall. Weak El Niño is the best ENSO state but you see big snows in many other ENSO states as well. George is correct that a very potent El Niño is prob the worst. 
 

It typically comes down to other factors here. You can have a potent La Niña with little blocking and still be good (07-08 is a good example) but also an awful potent La Niña with little blocking (1999-00 comes to mind). 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of New England has a very weak correlation to ENSO when it comes to snowfall. Weak El Niño is the best ENSO state but you see big snows in many other ENSO states as well. George is correct that a very potent El Niño is prob the worst. 
 

It typically comes down to other factors here. You can have a potent La Niña with little blocking and still be good (07-08 is a good example) but also an awful potent La Niña with little blocking (1999-00 comes to mind). 

Weak ninos have had some good winters, but strong ninos bat .000 in terms of a winter that averages out on the good side here.

 

I plan to do more research locally about la nina this summer. But the high number of snowy Decembers is very interesting.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

One thing im going to be keeping an eye on is how active the hurricane season ends up being. Raindance mentioned a couple years ago that there was a moderate positive correlation between the ACE and east coast snowfall during La Niña winters. 

I can't find the post on Space City Weather, but Matt Lanza, a Houston energy sector met, said a strong Nino is usually followed by a near normal hurricane season, but there have been exceptions, such as 2016.  Lanza did state the abnormally warm Atlantic MDR temps could make the near normal after a strong Nino correlation fail.  I'd also note that the notion of the late 1990s that the 15-20 year active cycles followed by similar length inactive cycles appears wrong based on the general greater activity that started in 1995 having passed 20 years almost a decade ago.

 

IMBY, we had a once every decade or two cold snap (low temps in the city in the teens) in 3 of the last 4 winters, the one in 2024 being the first I remember in an El Nino year.

[raindancewx]

What I've found over the years with La Ninas is that the higher activity is in the Atlantic, the fewer cold waves / moisture / general storminess you get in the Southwest. ACE does tend to favor heavier snow in the NE in La Ninas when high (see: 1995-96, 2005-06, 2010-11, 1933-34, etc).

We're actually in pretty good shape now for moisture in a lot of the West. I could see next winter being almost barren of moisture in light of that. I think Elephant Butte Reservoir in NM, which is the subject of countless legal conflicts between CO, NM, TX, and MX may reach it's highest water level in 15-30 years with the run off this year, pending how March goes. For most of the last decade it hasn't even topped 20% of capacity which is the level that allows NM to store its water instead of sending it to TX. We're already well over 25%, with more snow-pack likely to build into at least March.

I really think Elephant Butte, shown below has a shot at topping 600-700 thousand acre feet for the first time since 2004, approximately when the PDO flipped to negative. You can see though, the 2020-21 and 2021-22 were like the La Ninas in the 70s here - not particularly wet, but almost all moisture that fell was snow in the mountains and valleys feeding the Rio Grande, rather than rain.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23. 

With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning to descend, we will likely have less blocking than even 2022-23. With all the cold air bottled up at the pole/Siberia or again dumping to the western NA, I'm thinking AN to much AN temps across the entire CONUS except maybe near normal over the Pac NW. East coast will likely be much AN+++ with 60s being commonplace, with strings of 70 degree days interspersed throughout even the deepest winter months. 

Warmest winter on record across the east? Even higher chance of that happening than this year and last year. 

La Ninas after El Ninos are usually really good for snowfall, even recently, so hope is not lost.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of New England has a very weak correlation to ENSO when it comes to snowfall. Weak El Niño is the best ENSO state but you see big snows in many other ENSO states as well. George is correct that a very potent El Niño is prob the worst. 
 

It typically comes down to other factors here. You can have a potent La Niña with little blocking and still be good (07-08 is a good example) but also an awful potent La Niña with little blocking (1999-00 comes to mind). 

Typically, la ninas after el ninos are good for cold and snow, so we'll see.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Though Id be fine with neutral, Im also more than fine with a Nina next winter. We do far better in Ninas than Ninos in Michigan. I guess its all the difference in climates, but its crazy to see how midatlantic folks root on strong Ninos when that is literally THE worst winter you can draw up in the Great Lakes. I would argue 2023-24 has been the worst winter imaginable in northern MI/MN/WI, though Id need to do a lot of research to back it up (talking lack of snow + warmth). In southeast MI we had a good January and the rest has been terrible (Detroit has had 19.9" snow so far but 17.0" of this fell in Jan!). But all the bad I can say about this winter, there is not a single strong Nino on record that has been a good winter here. Im assuming the fondness of strong Ninos for some has to do with the heightened chance of east coast snowstorms?

 

There are a few duds, but by and large Ninas are snowy winters here and they are often front-loaded. Its quite common for a hot summer and mild Fall to abruptly give way to a cold, snowy December in a Nina year. We also see an increased risk of some real good winter storms in Ninas. And unlike Ninos with their strength discrepancy (weak nino can often be a good winter, strong nino ALWAYS sucks), a snowy winter is attainable in any strength of Nina.

 

Of course everything is speculation at this point, but I look forward to following this thread throughout the year, thanks for starting it George! 

 

Yes, what you mentioned-- a hot and dry summer followed by a snowy winter is common in the el nino to la nina transition.  It's happened several times.

[so_whats_happening]

I haven't looked much into this yet but will be interesting to see what happens. I do find it weird we haven't had much in the way of neutral years, 2019-20 being a failed Nino allowed us to have a warm neutral year. Im one for rooting for a neutral year in between these Nina/Nino episodes especially going from a triple year La Nina to strong/super Nino the last time this sort of remotely happened was in the 70s so it is not unheard of just rare to see.

A tell tale sign for sure will be how this spring into summer transition will we get more plains severe weather outbreaks? will we get a warm SE coming up in early spring? will the hurricane season be above normal with activity actually reaching the US? I would assume the gulf and Caribbean will be much more active/conducive this year for landfall potential. 

[qg_omega]

17 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23. 

With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning to descend, we will likely have less blocking than even 2022-23. With all the cold air bottled up at the pole/Siberia or again dumping to the western NA, I'm thinking AN to much AN temps across the entire CONUS except maybe near normal over the Pac NW. East coast will likely be much AN+++ with 60s being commonplace, with strings of 70 degree days interspersed throughout even the deepest winter months. 

Warmest winter on record across the east? Even higher chance of that happening than this year and last year. 

100 percent, this is a great forecast

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of New England has a very weak correlation to ENSO when it comes to snowfall. Weak El Niño is the best ENSO state but you see big snows in many other ENSO states as well. George is correct that a very potent El Niño is prob the worst. 
 

It typically comes down to other factors here. You can have a potent La Niña with little blocking and still be good (07-08 is a good example) but also an awful potent La Niña with little blocking (1999-00 comes to mind). 

None of that matters anymore given the record warmth in the maritime, MJO will drive ridges east and troughs west with the cold on the other side of the globe going forward.  

[Terpeast]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

La Ninas after El Ninos are usually really good for snowfall, even recently, so hope is not lost.

I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory. 

Thanks.... Do you think Mitchnick is right in his thinking that we need a very strong la nina to entirely change the pacific pattern?

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks.... Do you think Mitchnick is right in his thinking that we need a very strong la nina to entirely change the pacific pattern?

Not if the west pac warm pool and seas off Japan remain boiling. And a strong nina will just concentrate warm waters in the MC

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not if the west pac warm pool and seas off Japan remain boiling. And a strong nina will just concentrate warm waters in the MC

This is what I think too, that will just keep the current pattern in place.  Truthfully, it's hard to think of what would actually cause a big change to the Pacific if a +2.0C very strong el nino couldn't do it after three years of la nina.

[Terpeast]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

This is what I think too, that will just keep the current pattern in place.  Truthfully, it's hard to think of what would actually cause a big change to the Pacific if a +2.0C very strong el nino couldn't do it after three years of la nina.

Ironically, I think CC will do it. But who knows what will come next

[so_whats_happening]

I would love to see shipping lanes overlayed on SST anomaly maps in both the Atlantic and Pacific to see if that reduction in sulfur really is playing a large role in these regions. Also bathymetry is tough subject but I am curious if there is indeed something in the subsurface in these regions helping to enhance the oceanic heatwaves more than just stuck patterns.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory. 

Increase in WPAC tropical activity would definitely help in taking out that persistent warmth around Japan, unfortunately it probably means a record year or strong typhoon after strong typhoon to really churn up those waters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

La Ninas after El Ninos are usually really good for snowfall, even recently, so hope is not lost.

Seems like you have arrived at this from 2010 and 1995......there are plenty that suck. 1998-1999 sucked, 1983-1984 was okay..nothing special. 1973-1974 sucked. 2005-2006 was meh...1964-1965 was pretty mediocre and 1954-1955 sucked. The only real good ones were 2010 and 1995.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Ironically, I think CC will do it. But who knows what will come next

This is my thought on the issue.....nature always finds a way to balance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

What I've found over the years with La Ninas is that the higher activity is in the Atlantic, the fewer cold waves / moisture / general storminess you get in the Southwest. ACE does tend to favor heavier snow in the NE in La Ninas when high (see: 1995-96, 2005-06, 2010-11, 1933-34, etc).

We're actually in pretty good shape now for moisture in a lot of the West. I could see next winter being almost barren of moisture in light of that. I think Elephant Butte Reservoir in NM, which is the subject of countless legal conflicts between CO, NM, TX, and MX may reach it's highest water level in 15-30 years with the run off this year, pending how March goes. For most of the last decade it hasn't even topped 20% of capacity which is the level that allows NM to store its water instead of sending it to TX. We're already well over 25%, with more snow-pack likely to build into at least March.

I really think Elephant Butte, shown below has a shot at topping 600-700 thousand acre feet for the first time since 2004, approximately when the PDO flipped to negative. You can see though, the 2020-21 and 2021-22 were like the La Ninas in the 70s here - not particularly wet, but almost all moisture that fell was snow in the mountains and valleys feeding the Rio Grande, rather than rain.

This past El Nino was definitely a lot like 1972-1973....we had more blocking, but it didn't matter because all of the cold was on the other side of the globe and in AK.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23. 

With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning to descend, we will likely have less blocking than even 2022-23. With all the cold air bottled up at the pole/Siberia or again dumping to the western NA, I'm thinking AN to much AN temps across the entire CONUS except maybe near normal over the Pac NW. East coast will likely be much AN+++ with 60s being commonplace, with strings of 70 degree days interspersed throughout even the deepest winter months. 

Warmest winter on record across the east? Even higher chance of that happening than this year and last year. 

Will have to see exactly when the peak is....we  may sneak in one more winter before the solar wind and electromagnetic energy kicks up.

We need to see what the ACE is, too....while a huge ACE doesn't guarantee a great winter, its never lead to a horrific one, either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks.... Do you think Mitchnick is right in his thinking that we need a very strong la nina to entirely change the pacific pattern?

I do not agree with that. It will get taken care of naturtally....not saying immediately. I could def. see next winter sucking...don't get me wrong.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23. 

With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning to descend, we will likely have less blocking than even 2022-23. With all the cold air bottled up at the pole/Siberia or again dumping to the western NA, I'm thinking AN to much AN temps across the entire CONUS except maybe near normal over the Pac NW. East coast will likely be much AN+++ with 60s being commonplace, with strings of 70 degree days interspersed throughout even the deepest winter months. 

Warmest winter on record across the east? Even higher chance of that happening than this year and last year. 

Just thinking out loud.   It's worth posit discussion whether any ENSO can readily couple to the hemisphere.   It's long words ... but simple concept:  if the surrounding ambient planetary thermal state become less(more) differentiable to these ocean-air indices, the correlated result won't look the same -