CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just bring me a fresh pure Nina, with some periods of cross polar flow, and I will take my chances. Beach chase, whatever it takes. Can always go north or to the western highlands for snow in any winter, regardless of ENSO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, Ji said: CWG said it was a super Nino lol Does modoki Nina mean anything? They suck. When the MJO never progresses east of the MC for more than 5 minutes, it isn't much of a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 27 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m just going to buy this call it a winterhttps://www.homes.com/property/11-chipmunk-ln-davis-wv/kp5pm339t2s0e/ Just about 2 hrs from Leesburg, 119” on the season, and a depth of 1” or more for 59 of the last 85 days. They got more snow in November than most of us have for the season. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncletim Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I usually focus on learning how to stop properly pretty fast, depending on the balance of the student. If they can’t stay on their feet more than 10 feet it doesn’t matter much. But as soon as they can glide a bit I start on that. I think spending a lot of time in snow plow is detrimental to progressing. Once you can stop it makes it easy to accelerate learning of technique because you’re more comfortable. It’s very similar to the mechanics of turning. Only you have to commit completely and lean into it. Get all your weight into the inside edge of the downhill ski and dig it in. It’s a feel thing. Once you get it you can feel the friction on the inside of the downhill boot and manipulate it. Put some weight into the edge to control speed. More to stop. Takes several tries at medium speed. Enough to get the feel but slow enough the inevitable falls don’t hurt too much. But it’s worth it because once you acquire that skill it’s applicable to many more as you progress and your comfort level goes way up knowing you can control your speed and stop! Hmm - how about an Amwx ski day at Liberty or Whitetail. I’d be down for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 23 minutes ago, Ji said: CWG said it was a super Nino lol Does modoki Nina mean anything? A modoki Nina is worse. We want an east based Nina. West based are the really bad ones. There could always be a fluke. But a west based Nina in a -pdo cycle with our current thermal base system is a disaster waiting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 A modoki Nina is worse. We want an east based Nina. West based are the really bad ones. There could always be a fluke. But a west based Nina in a -pdo cycle with our current thermal base system is a disaster waiting to happen. Oh geez. I'm outSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 52 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m just going to buy this call it a winterhttps://www.homes.com/property/11-chipmunk-ln-davis-wv/kp5pm339t2s0e/ That looks pretty awesome. Close to Timberline and backwater falls. Can get a beer at Jon Jons. I’d jump on that if I had the resources which I currently do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 20 minutes ago, uncletim said: Hmm - how about an Amwx ski day at Liberty or Whitetail. I’d be down for that. If there was interest I’d do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Oh geez. I'm out Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk We just cannot know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Oh geez. I'm out Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk I’m already planning where I might take the kids for some snow/ski weekends so they can see snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I’m already planning where I might take the kids for some snow/ski weekends so they can see snow. The Michigan weenies are excited for next year. Time to go to the UP? Housing is much cheaper there than Vermont Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 13 minutes ago, Ji said: The Michigan weenies are excited for next year. Time to go to the UP? Housing is much cheaper there than Vermont Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Lake effect is cool to experience but it’s not the same level of tracking imo. And not very good skiing there. I’ll save up and shoot for VT someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, Ji said: Does modoki Nina mean anything? 2022-23 was a modoki nina. This time we won’t have as much blocking as we did last year. As you said… I’m going to work on racking up points to get my family a free flight out west next winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2022-23 was a modoki nina. This time we won’t have as much blocking as we did last year. As you said… I’m going to work on racking up points to get my family a free flight out west next winter. Maybe we'll luck into a positive pdo winter. Or maybe that Dec 22 pattern this time around gives us the white Christmas Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 24 minutes ago, Ji said: Maybe we'll luck into a positive pdo winter. Or maybe that Dec 22 pattern this time around gives us the white Christmas Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk It’s gonna have to snow early and often if we’re going to avoid another ratter. I’m talking between thanksgiving and new year, maybe first week of Jan. Then it’s lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Hopefully next year will be a disaster, worst pattern ever, la Nina, blah blah blah.. than we'll most likely have a great winter. It's always the opposite of what humans expect. Soon as I hear we're in for a great winter I begin to worry lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 10 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Hopefully next year will be a disaster, worst pattern ever, la Nina, blah blah blah.. than we'll most likely have a great winter. It's always the opposite of what humans expect. Soon as I hear we're in for a great winter I begin to worry lol It is going to be a Nina, but assuming a Modoki is the likely outcome at this juncture is silly for a multitude of reasons. It's almost entirely based on the latest CanSIPS run 7 months out lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 9 hours ago, Terpeast said: 2022-23 was a modoki nina. This time we won’t have as much blocking as we did last year. As you said… I’m going to work on racking up points to get my family a free flight out west next winter. That Modoki Nina gave me a White Christmas and a 2F afternoon high on Dec 23. I'd take that and run over this POS nino winter. Granted, that was not in stephens city. There is no pattern, no storm that could produce snow and cold here. A Polar Vortex spinning directly over winchester wouldn't even get it below freezing here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: That Modoki Nina gave me a White Christmas and a 2F afternoon high on Dec 23. I'd take that and run over this POS nino winter. Where was that? All I got was a flash freeze where I couldn’t even open my car door until I spent 20 minutes melting it with hot water. This Nino winter gave me 12 days worth of sledding and snowman-making days with my daughter. Had the time of our lives, and we didn’t even have to travel to see snow. Cue the Kevin shark tank meme… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Our best winter week this year was actually due in part to a La Nina-esque pattern with an aleutian ridge that nudged poleward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 @brooklynwx99 Moved from other thread.. There are several factors that are all contributing imo. The warmer waters in the western PAC and IO are favoring hostile MJO forcing. The Hadley cell has been expanded lately displacing the jet in the central pacific north. This might also be contributing to the over extensions as the compressing of the jets speeds them up. The warmer waters all around the enso regions are muting the impact of ninos and enhancing the impact of Nina’s by muting and enhancing the temp contrast. There was good research that suggested the contrast is more important than the raw enso anomalies. Lastly this PDO cycle is on roids and bullying other influencers right now. They are all working in tandem to create an extremely hostile base state that’s destructive to attempts at establishing a canonical Nino. Sometimes one might relax, like the mjo right now. But taken holistically as a whole I think it’s just too much for the Nino to overcome for more than short sporadic periods. We knew this, it was discussed as the reason for the 2019 Ninos failure to couple with the atmosphere. But most of us thought a strong bordering on super Nino would overcome those obstacles. Simplest answer is that it was not. There were some voices out there warning this would happen. I acknowledged this was a risk. But I went with the belief the Nino would win. I was wrong. Some of those factors are most definitely related to warming. Some most definitely are just cyclical like the PDO. Others it’s unknown whether they are CC or a temporary thing. We won’t know, imo, how bad off we are until the PDO flips. What I think we’ve proven is that all those other factors have conspired to make a -PDO worse and pretty much impossible to get a cold snowy winter in the mid Atlantic south of 40. But there is no evidence yet that +PDO have been affected. 3 of the last 5 +PDO winters were above avg snow here. But none were after the 2016 super Nino that might have reset things to a degree. But since we’ve been in a strong -pdo since 2018 all we can do is speculate. 2017-2018 was too small a sample size but to be fair both were typical Nina’s and cold at times. Nothing in those years struck me as alarming. That started happening in 2019 on when the PDO went Uber negative. So I’m hopeful that while our -pdos have been rendered god awful by other influencers exasperating what was already a hostile cycle, once we get a +pdo we can still cook wrt snow. We will find out when the PDO flips 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Our best winter week this year was actually due in part to a La Nina-esque pattern with an aleutian ridge that nudged poleward. Yea but it has the trough north of Hawaii making it sort of a hybrid and that blocking. I’m not holding my breath we see either next year. But flukes happen. And all we need is to get lucky in a short window. Most remember 2000 fondly but other than 10 days the winter was an awful long wave pattern. Look at this mess…and yet we remember it as a good winter. A fluke like that could happen But we hit 3/3 on waves in those 10 days. It’s possible but odds are against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 13 hours ago, Ji said: I’m just going to buy this call it a winterhttps://www.homes.com/property/11-chipmunk-ln-davis-wv/kp5pm339t2s0e/ 12 hours ago, snowfan said: Just about 2 hrs from Leesburg, 119” on the season, and a depth of 1” or more for 59 of the last 85 days. They got more snow in November than most of us have for the season. lol. 12 hours ago, psuhoffman said: That looks pretty awesome. Close to Timberline and backwater falls. Can get a beer at Jon Jons. I’d jump on that if I had the resources which I currently do not. Well, the first thing I generally check made that a fail, the HOA block was checked. Granted, I didn't read to see if it was low and only to cover road maintenance/plowing (which I COULD live with, begrudgingly) but other than that, automatic out. Once an HOA gets started the only way they go is up, usually at 2x inflation as a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Our best winter week this year was actually due in part to a La Nina-esque pattern with an aleutian ridge that nudged poleward. This type of pattern(-EPO) is not uncommon at times in a Nina, and can bring legit cold. Flow tends to be progressive and the disturbances are mostly/all NS, but with amplification can dig southward enough to track underneath. Jan 22 is a good example. -EPO/+PNA was the mechanism for cold plus waves digging further south than typical. A transient -NAO/50-50 low may have led to a better outcome for areas inland. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Lots of offerings of all these indexes that “went wrong” when really it’s our prediction methods that are the biggest problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Lots of offerings of all these indexes that “went wrong” when really it’s our prediction methods that are the biggest problem definitely open to suggestions if you think there are better ways we can attempt to model the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 23 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Lots of offerings of all these indexes that “went wrong” when really it’s our prediction methods that are the biggest problem Personally I’m discussing what happened so that I can understand what mistakes I made and not make them again. If I don’t analyze what caused the non canonical Nino pattern then I can’t improve my forecast next time we’re faced with a similar scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 @WEATHER53 also, the best way you can make your point is to discuss your analysis and show the better way you think is out there to analyze and predict long range patterns. I want to get better. If there is a better way than the current analog based methods I use I’m open to it. But vague criticism with no productive suggestions is unhelpful. Even if I wanted to act on your posts what exactly can I do? You’ve provided no tangible suggestions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 This thread is destined for failure. The folks that want to discuss climate change can’t help but satisfy that itch in the LR thread. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: definitely open to suggestions if you think there are better ways we can attempt to model the atmosphere. Volunteered the details many times and as recently as 36 hours ago. Not doing that over and over for people who feel utterly lost without myriads of useless example samples that don’t work and are worse than ever right now. Being observant and critical does not mandate a solution. That’s a gimmick. You have expressed your vote for more of the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now