uncletim Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I was looking at that first circle over southern Vermont as well. Mainly checking Zillow for real estate prices (casually), but couldn't find a whole lot of listings that aren't down in the valley. Not that I'm planning to move in the short term - I'm staying put for now. There are more important things in life than frozen ice crystals falling from the sky... like friends and family, daughter gets to see her grandma once a week, etc. But if my mom moves out of the DMV, or daughter leaves the house after HS, or otherwise a strong reason for us to move, that's one area I'll be looking at. Or go out west. Only problem is... by then, I may be too old to shovel 3 feet of snow. Unless I keep hitting the gym and stay in shape and not allow myself to let go. Definitely stay out of the Bennington/Manchester valley in VT. Not that they don’t get more snow than us, obviously, but it would be massively frustrating to me to look down at brown ground and know that 5 miles away and a thousand feet higher there is a 2 foot snowpack. But it’s pricey. Pandemic induced massive changes in the real estate market, particularly in sourthern VT. Anything decent up on the plateau closer to ski areas is extremely expensive, especially in areas closer to Manchester, like Winhall, etc. The situation is not so severe in NW Maine; non-waterfront is still non-crazy, pricewise. Choose properties carefully - Rangeley area has a severe labor shortage, so building or major renovations are on a multi-year waiting list. I suspect the situation is similar in VT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, uncletim said: Definitely stay out of the Bennington/Manchester valley in VT. Not that they don’t get more snow than us, obviously, but it would be massively frustrating to me to look down at brown ground and know that 5 miles away and a thousand feet higher there is a 2 foot snowpack. But it’s pricey. Pandemic induced massive changes in the real estate market, particularly in sourthern VT. Anything decent up on the plateau closer to ski areas is extremely expensive, especially in areas closer to Manchester, like Winhall, etc. The situation is not so severe in NW Maine; non-waterfront is still non-crazy, pricewise. Choose properties carefully - Rangeley area has a severe labor shortage, so building or major renovations are on a multi-year waiting list. I suspect the situation is similar in VT. I thought DMV was expensive, but VT isn't that much cheaper. Out west, same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncletim Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I thought DMV was expensive, but VT isn't that much cheaper. Out west, same. I think prices will go down eventually, at least in ME. Any kind of fluctuation tends to be exaggerated there because of the distance from population centers. Also, historically the length and depth and darkness of winter in the higher elevations in ME tends to be discouraging. Fun at first, but it gets old for most folks after a few years. Even Squire Rangeley, the town namesake, said the hell with this and moved down to Virginia after several years. That may be changing though; last several winters even there have been significantly more moderate (getting back to thread relevance!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonTownT Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 With my project management background I try to look at the big picture, and to me it seems like there are micro and a macro trends going on here. The micro trend that the mid Atlantic is warming meaning so called marginal events are more likely to be rain rather than snow is completely plausible to anyone who follows science. That however doesn't explain why places much colder and north of us are having horrible snow winters as well, that seems to be a macro trend that doesn't necessarily have to do with whether it was 28 or 35 degrees here. Seems like when the macro trend resolves itself we'll get our snow here as well as other places, just maybe with a lower baseline to account for the various marginal events per season we'll start to lose out on because of local micro trends in temperatures. Hence my view that it will still snow here, eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I was looking at that first circle over southern Vermont as well. Mainly checking Zillow for real estate prices (casually), but couldn't find a whole lot of listings that aren't down in the valley. Not that I'm planning to move in the short term - I'm staying put for now. There are more important things in life than frozen ice crystals falling from the sky... like friends and family, daughter gets to see her grandma once a week, etc. But if my mom moves out of the DMV, or daughter leaves the house after HS, or otherwise a strong reason for us to move, that's one area I'll be looking at. Or go out west. Only problem is... by then, I may be too old to shovel 3 feet of snow. Unless I keep hitting the gym and stay in shape and not allow myself to let go. Yea I’m in the same boat with the kids. About 1000 ft seems to be the magic number in southern VT. Above that does very well and holds snow. Below and you’ll be disappointed often. There are a few towns high enough to do good like Grafton. But you really want to look for communities outside the river valleys most towns are in. There is a community just east of Magic Mountsin along 121 between Windham and North Windham at about 1500 feet that gets dumped. There is another along rt 9 east of Bennington next to Big Pond. Someplace like that. But you have to wait for a property to come on the market. Or buy a plot and build. But that area is probably perfect for me. Big storms. Not too crazy cold like further north. Very nice summers. Snowmobiling. Skiing. Hiking. Fishing. Not crazy far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, stormy said: The immediate DC region is closer to normal snowfall this winter than the great majority on the east coast according to NOAA. DCA 8.5 received, average ann.total 13.7 = 60%, Pittsburgh 13 received, average total 42 31%, Philadelphia 10 received 19 average 53%, Staunton 7 received 24 average 29%. This makes some people happy and some unhappy. There has been a gradual downhill slide in D.C. snowfall for 140 years according to this data, but look at the wildly fluctuating seasons with the recording breaking season not 100 but only 14 years ago. We should be getting close to another big year. I don’t judge all winters on the same curve. I’d be thrilled with this years results in a Nina. But -QBO ninos have to be held to a higher standard. Baltimore averages 42” in -QBO Nino winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I thought DMV was expensive, but VT isn't that much cheaper. Out west, same. lots of places (that are desirable) have caught up to us. For example, a $1M house in Denver or Boulder doesn't get you much these days, similar to parts of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 @Terpeast I just looked. It’s slim pickings. But right now there are 2 places I’d maybe be interested that aren’t crazy crazy $$&. Both around 300k. One is a house NW of Wilmington VT and another a condo unit northeast of Stratton. There is also a “new construction” listing NE of Magic Mountsin in an area that I know gets crushed with snow. But ya yea not cheap and there aren’t a ton of options. There was a run on properties there during the pandemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncletim Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I’m in the same boat with the kids. About 1000 ft seems to be the magic number in southern VT. Above that does very well and holds snow. Below and you’ll be disappointed often. There are a few towns high enough to do good like Grafton. But you really want to look for communities outside the river valleys most towns are in. There is a community just east of Magic Mountsin along 121 between Windham and North Windham at about 1500 feet that gets dumped. There is another along rt 9 east of Bennington next to Big Pond. Someplace like that. But you have to wait for a property to come on the market. Or buy a plot and build. But that area is probably perfect for me. Big storms. Not too crazy cold like further north. Very nice summers. Snowmobiling. Skiing. Hiking. Fishing. Not crazy far away. The “chain-up” lots on the east side of Bennington and west side of Wilmington on rt 9 are promising indicators for sure. Usually only see that out West! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 55 minutes ago, TowsonTownT said: With my project management background I try to look at the big picture, and to me it seems like there are micro and a macro trends going on here. The micro trend that the mid Atlantic is warming meaning so called marginal events are more likely to be rain rather than snow is completely plausible to anyone who follows science. That however doesn't explain why places much colder and north of us are having horrible snow winters as well, that seems to be a macro trend that doesn't necessarily have to do with whether it was 28 or 35 degrees here. Seems like when the macro trend resolves itself we'll get our snow here as well as other places, just maybe with a lower baseline to account for the various marginal events per season we'll start to lose out on because of local micro trends in temperatures. Hence my view that it will still snow here, eventually. It will snow. But it is still snowing now in places with elevation. Vermont is doing ok. But consider in a warm winter places 200 miles north of us at low elevation didn’t have that much more wiggle room. You adjust things just a bit and they aren’t cold enough in a warmer winter either. And in a tight thermal gradient pattern it’s hard to know what the warming does to the boundary. Wouldn’t take much to adjust the whole boundary hundreds of miles. It won’t matter as much in a colder regime once the PDO flips but I do think warming can explain some of the struggles to our north in warmer -pdo winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Other theories need study Earthquake effects. Volcanos both above and below sea level. Tsunamis . Shaking, sloshing and jolting the earth around may have taken a toll -Possible change in earth axis. Looking for more indexes to invent is wrong track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Other theories need study Earthquake effects. Volcanos both above and below sea level. Possible change in earth axis. Looking for more indexes to invent is wrong track I don’t think the 32” the axis has shifted in our lifetime has affected the climate that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 hours ago, Terpeast said: Serious question. Have you considered getting a job in the ski industry? Not sure if it's viable because ski resorts are suffering all over and may not be hiring like crazy, but have you looked at those opportunities? I haven't--but it would not be a viable option for me for a number of reasons...distance being one of them. I am a professional musician--so I literally do music for a living, lol It's my calling & passion...and I love what I do! And, I'd have to give up all connections/networking for music I have here. Sure there could be new ones formed in a place like WV, but moving to the mountains is not an option at this point in my life for other reasons. Now...as far as actually GOING skiing? I have never been, and while my bodily coordination is questionable, I'd love to try it even if just to be around the snow And given our snow prospects particularly next winter, I may...just don't know anybody that skiis, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I haven't--but it would not be a viable option for me for a number of reasons...distance being one of them. I am a professional musician--so I literally do music for a living, lol It's my calling & passion...and I love what I do! And, I'd have to give up all connections/networking for music I have here. Sure there could be new ones formed in a place like WV, but moving to the mountains is not an option at this point in my life for other reasons. Now...as far as actually GOING skiing? I have never been, and while my bodily coordination is questionable, I'd love to try it even if just to be around the snow And given our snow prospects particularly next winter, I may...just don't know anybody that skiis, lol I’ve taught many people how to ski. Liberty is a good mountain to learn and not far. If you ever wanted a free lesson let me know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I’ve taught many people how to ski. Liberty is a good mountain to learn and not far. If you ever wanted a free lesson let me know. May one day take you up on that. I’ve got duck feet and struggle to slow down/turn. Usually just zoom straight down and crash at the end to stop. Now that I’m slowly getting older… bad idea lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t think the 32” the axis has shifted in our lifetime has affected the climate that much. Different things are now worth looking into so we can restore prediction reliability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: May one day take you up on that. I’ve got duck feet and struggle to slow down/turn. Usually just zoom straight down and crash at the end to stop. Now that I’m slowly getting older… bad idea lol I usually focus on learning how to stop properly pretty fast, depending on the balance of the student. If they can’t stay on their feet more than 10 feet it doesn’t matter much. But as soon as they can glide a bit I start on that. I think spending a lot of time in snow plow is detrimental to progressing. Once you can stop it makes it easy to accelerate learning of technique because you’re more comfortable. It’s very similar to the mechanics of turning. Only you have to commit completely and lean into it. Get all your weight into the inside edge of the downhill ski and dig it in. It’s a feel thing. Once you get it you can feel the friction on the inside of the downhill boot and manipulate it. Put some weight into the edge to control speed. More to stop. Takes several tries at medium speed. Enough to get the feel but slow enough the inevitable falls don’t hurt too much. But it’s worth it because once you acquire that skill it’s applicable to many more as you progress and your comfort level goes way up knowing you can control your speed and stop! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I took a look at his blog today, out of morbid curiosity wanted to see how he finally conceded and had either his typical melt down or if he went “I nailed this or that but the pattern never cooperated defiance”. Just for fun. Instead he was holding on to the idea the only reason his snow forecast hadn’t hit us the east hadn’t had the big one but that since everything else has gone to form it’s probably coming. But he was in that stubborn defiant mode he gets into when he knows it’s all going sideways. He likely actually did think this was going to be a big year for him like 2003 and 2010 and he could ride this for another 3 years! He is just trying to get one more month of paid subscribers at this point. He knows how unlikely a hecs is in DC to NYC once into March. Our only hope next year is a Nino hangover just like we seemed to have Nina hangover this winter.94-95 to 96….09-10 to 11… if we get lucky. But you also risk a 72-73 to 73-74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Our only hope next year is a Nino hangover just like we seemed to have Nina hangover this winter.94-95 to 96….09-10 to 11… if we get lucky. But you also risk a 72-73 to 73-74Actually 73-74 wasn’t terrible per snow stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Actually 73-74 wasn’t terrible per snow stats 2017 could have gone better too. We had quite a few legit threats. They all went sideways but we had some decent pattern windows that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 @Ji but the numbers are what they are. I think it’s fair to think there is a chance next winter could go our way and end up just a typical below avg winter. Not a total snowless dreg year. But unless the PDO flips and there is no sign of that yet, I think our high end bar is hope it’s just bad not awful. 1996 ain’t happening in the -pdo regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2017 could have gone better too. We had quite a few legit threats. They all went sideways but we had some decent pattern windows that winter. I also thought the start of 03-04 was just a continuation of 02-03 but the February and March came. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'd be interested to know why we aren't getting -NAO's too, especially sustained -NAO's. The CPC has us +1.10 for DJ, and it looks like another >+1.00 month for February as per their method of calculating. Going back in their stats, we have had 1 -NAO January since 2011 (12/13 years positive!), and 1 -NAO February since 2011 (12/13 years). That's crazy. I think their calculations is more based around SLP near the Azores, but wow! Beyond that, when the NAO goes negative on a daily basis, it's usually no more than 10-14 days. Yea i don’t have the ability to do that research. But I find it interesting that the two -QBO Ninos that stick out like a sore thumb for a +nao winter are both years following a volcanic eruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I also thought the start of 03-04 was just a continuation of 02-03 but the February and March came. Yikes That was a neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] but the numbers are what they are. I think it’s fair to think there is a chance next winter could go our way and end up just a typical below avg winter. Not a total snowless dreg year. But unless the PDO flips and there is no sign of that yet, I think our high end bar is hope it’s just bad not awful. 1996 ain’t happening in the -pdo regime. We haven’t had a positive pdo month since sept 2019 and the last sustained good pdo we had during winter was 2016! Maybe we severely underated the pdo this year in thinking this would be an epic winter. We are due though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 What I find so disappointing the past 2 years is how long it takes to get out of a crap pattern. Weeks and weeks to get something workable. Only takes a few days to wreck a good one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 We haven’t had a positive pdo month since sept 2019 and the last sustained good pdo we had during winter was 2016! Maybe we severely underated the pdo this year in thinking this would be an epic winter. We are due though Man looking back…seems the positive pdo is our most important factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I’m just going to buy this call it a winterhttps://www.homes.com/property/11-chipmunk-ln-davis-wv/kp5pm339t2s0e/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 48 minutes ago, Ji said: Our only hope next year is a Nino hangover just like we seemed to have Nina hangover this winter. 94-95 to 96….09-10 to 11… if we get lucky. But you also risk a 72-73 to 73-74 But this Nino was impotent. Any 'hangover' would be pretty lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 But this Nino was impotent. Any 'hangover' would be pretty lame.CWG said it was a super Nino lolDoes modoki Nina mean anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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