Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: How much is dca and Dulles at for the year currently? And how does it compare to average? BWI will likely be over climo. Not sure about DCA, but after today IAD has 11.7” on the season. Edit: DCA at exactly 8.0” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Not sure about DCA, but after today IAD has 11.7” on the season. Edit: DCA at exactly 8.0” Okay dca is within reach. Dulles will be a struggle. My point is that extended periods of low snowfall totals in our region have occurred before. here is 1893 to 1898 (Baltimore) 1893-94 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.1 1.0 11.7 T 5.0 0.0 0.0 21.0 1894-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 3.0 5.0 9.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.9 1895-96 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.2 1.0 2.8 13.8 T 0.0 0.0 17.8 1896-97 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.2 4.7 0.7 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6 1897-98 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 2.6 5.4 T 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5 And there are so many more periods like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not sure about DCA, but after today IAD has 11.7” on the season. Edit: DCA at exactly 8.0” What’s BWI? Seeing my snowfall contest status. RIC gonna fork me in the cornhole so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 21 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: How much is dca and Dulles at for the year currently? And how does it compare to average? BWI will likely be over climo. DCA is at 8" for the season. Seasonal climo is 13.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: From 1964 to 2010 IAD recorded 21 days with 4”+ of snow and a high temperature below 28 degrees. It hasn’t happened in 14 years since 2010. That shocks me that there weren’t a bunch of days like that in 2014 and 2015. Also feel like there have been a few storms since maybe 2018 where I thought that may have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 26 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That shocks me that there weren’t a bunch of days like that in 2014 and 2015. Also feel like there have been a few storms since maybe 2018 where I thought that may have happened. It felt cold because it had been so damn warm from 2005 to 2013. The truth is the sudden decrease in these “cold snowstorms” happened following 2004. They happened rather regularly at IAD from 1964 when records began until 2004. Then from 2005 until now it’s happened only twice, both in 2009/10. Thats 19 times in 40 years. Since then twice in 20 years and none in the last 14. It’s just been too warm. Pretty much all our snowstorms in the last 20 years the high for that day was near or above freezing. 2014 did have a couple events that were closer than in most years with highs below freezing at least. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: At this point, a HECS would take it from a D to a C. For me any year that has a hecs is automatically at least a B. They are just too rare and the best events we get to be too picky. If anything else decent happens that year it’s an A. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It felt cold because it had been so damn warm from 2005 to 2013. The truth is the sudden decrease in these “cold snowstorms” happened following 2004. They happened rather regularly at IAD from 1964 when records began until 2004. Then from 2005 until now it’s happened only twice, both in 2009/10. Thats 19 times in 40 years. Since then twice in 20 years and none in the last 14. It’s just been too warm. Pretty much all our snowstorms in the last 20 years the high for that day was near or above freezing. 2014 did have a couple events that were closer than in most years with highs below freezing at least. I remember around that time articles were saying how the "too cold to snow" days were disappearing and that's why all those big snows could be attributed to cc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: For me any year that has a hecs is automatically at least a B. They are just too rare and the best events we get to be too picky. If anything else decent happens that year it’s an A. Oh yea. If we close out the year with a 15 - 25" region wide HECS this season is an A in my book. If this was it last night ( most likely) then this season is a D at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 For me 2018 went from a D- to a solid B when I got a 16” snowstorm on March 20-21. Keep in mind I totally missed that coastal bomb in January that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 For me 2018 went from a D- to a solid B when I got a 16” snowstorm on March 20-21. Keep in mind I totally missed that coastal bomb in January that year. Nina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: For me 2018 went from a D- to a solid B when I got a 16” snowstorm on March 20-21. Keep in mind I totally missed that coastal bomb in January that year. Some of us missed both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Nina! I’m surprised how upbeat you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Compared to last winter, this is a solid C, with an ass hair of winter left 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I’m surprised how upbeat you are. I’m numb. Like the Washington football team.It dosent bother me much anymore and digital blue was what I love and I got that 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m numb. Like the Washington football team. It dosent bother me much anymore and digital blue was what I love and I got that Yeah I’m shifting my focus into work (our busy season is approaching) and other things. I had a good time chasing with everybody. I don’t leave mad. We got more snow than last year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 It is what it is. No sense getting all upset. On top of living where I do ( anyone willing to make the commute can do what I do) as a skier I see a lot of snow each year regardless of what happens here. It helps some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Honestly I can't really complain. I'm at between 13-14" on the season and been able to go sledding half a dozen times with my daughter, with a couple of jebwalks while it was actually snowing. She's a weenie like me, and we have a great time together out there. Lots of father/daughter moments made. I couldn't say that last winter. Yes, I'm dissapointed that we didn't get a HECS, and this being a Nino year, we probably blew our shot at one of those and it'll likely be years before we get another loaded chance. But from where I'm sitting, I can't complain. Ironically, most of our snows came from nina-like northern stream lows. I'd be THRILLED if I got 14" in a La Nina winter. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Honestly I can't really complain. I'm at between 13-14" on the season and been able to go sledding half a dozen times with my daughter, with a couple of jebwalks while it was actually snowing. She's a weenie like me, and we have a great time together out there. Lots of father/daughter moments made. Yes, I'm dissapointed that we didn't get a HECS, and this being a Nino year, we probably blew our shot at one of those and it'll likely be years before we get another loaded chance. But from where I'm sitting, I can't complain. Ironically, most of our snows came from nina-like northern stream lows. I'd be THRILLED if I got 14" in a La Nina winter. I blew out my knee sledding with the kids lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I blew out my knee sledding with the kids lol Hope it's alright! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Hope it's alright! lol I’ll find out next week. Best case maybe a scope and quicker PT recovery. Worst case full surgery and a more lengthy PT. But I’ll recover. I’ve rehabbed worse over the years between skiing and soccer injuries. I’m not ready to stop being active. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Honestly I can't really complain. I'm at between 13-14" on the season and been able to go sledding half a dozen times with my daughter, with a couple of jebwalks while it was actually snowing. She's a weenie like me, and we have a great time together out there. Lots of father/daughter moments made. I couldn't say that last winter. Yes, I'm dissapointed that we didn't get a HECS, and this being a Nino year, we probably blew our shot at one of those and it'll likely be years before we get another loaded chance. But from where I'm sitting, I can't complain. Ironically, most of our snows came from nina-like northern stream lows. I'd be THRILLED if I got 14" in a La Nina winter. All it takes is 1 storm. January 96 and January 00 were both in Nina’s. Outliers, yes, but it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: All it takes is 1 storm. January 96 and January 00 were both in Nina’s. Outliers, yes, but it can happen. Jan 25, 2000 was epic here east of DC. Extreme snowfall rates 4-5" per hour at my house. Probably even 6" rates during the peak. I got 21" that day. Forecast was for 3-5. It was Forecast to miss us, the day prior. Sorry for banter lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 In today's base-state, between the two which do you guys think is more destructive to east CONUS snow: Pac Puke (Pacific Trough regime) or SER/-PNA/Pacific Ridge regime? They both suck ass, and the three previous winters had nearly endless -PNA but overall I think the SER is less evil than Pac Puke. At least in the SER regime the source regions are still cold and a nice -EPO can cause it to get shunted our way from time to time. For Pack Puke, once it sets in we're punting a bare minimum of the next three weeks (often four or five) as the source regions are completely scoured of cold and after it relaxes we have to gradually build it back up. On the other hand of course, when the -PNA is dominant and immobile like it was last year it is obviously a complete killer. While I'm hopeful that a switch to +PDO might help with the SER, will it do anything to improve the Hadley cell/pacific jet situation that seems to be making Pack Puke episodes longer and more severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It is what it is. No sense getting all upset. On top of living where I do ( anyone willing to make the commute can do what I do) as a skier I see a lot of snow each year regardless of what happens here. It helps some. What are you at for this season? My home forum is pretty much closing up shop and I'm just staying on here to try to help will you to at least median. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: In today's base-state, between the two which do you guys think is more destructive to east CONUS snow: Pac Puke (Pacific Trough regime) or SER/-PNA/Pacific Ridge regime? They both suck ass, and the three previous winters had nearly endless -PNA but overall I think the SER is less evil than Pac Puke. At least in the SER regime the source regions are still cold and a nice -EPO can cause it to get shunted our way from time to time. For Pack Puke, once it sets in we're punting a bare minimum of the next three weeks (often four or five) as the source regions are completely scoured of cold and after it relaxes we have to gradually build it back up. On the other hand of course, when the -PNA is dominant and immobile like it was last year it is obviously a complete killer. While I'm hopeful that a switch to +PDO might help with the SER, will it do anything to improve the Hadley cell/pacific jet situation that seems to be making Pack Puke episodes longer and more severe? In the current paradigm with warmer PAC and Atlantic and a -pdo exacerbating the issue I don’t think we’re snowing in either is the answer. I think if we did get a canonical Nino split flow -epo -pna that could work still. But in the current correct pdo with the pacific base state as it is I doubt that’s likely. The persistent MC forcing along with the Hadley cell expansion is interfering with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What are you at for this season? My home forum is pretty much closing up shop and I'm just staying on here to try to help will you to at least median. 24”. My avg is down to 39.5 after the last few seasons and median is about 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In the current paradigm with warmer PAC and Atlantic and a -pdo exacerbating the issue I don’t think we’re snowing in either is the answer. I think if we did get a canonical Nino split flow -epo -pna that could work still. But in the current correct pdo with the pacific base state as it is I doubt that’s likely. The persistent MC forcing along with the Hadley cell expansion is interfering with that. Yeah I guess we're just stuck waiting for the PDO flip to occur to see what happens. I don't really have a good feel as to what happens then. If a time traveler came from 30 years in the future and said "Yeah it flipped but it didn't help much and DCI is now Myrtle Beach", I wouldn't be surprised. On the other hand if they said "Yeah it flipped and we got back to maybe 85% of what we had" I wouldn't be shocked either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 24”. My avg is down to 39.5 after the last few seasons and median is about 35. Eh median is not out of the question then. I'll be rooting for you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 32 minutes ago, snowfan said: All it takes is 1 storm. January 96 and January 00 were both in Nina’s. Outliers, yes, but it can happen. I really don’t understand how 96 happened in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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