psuhoffman Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 hours ago, Ji said: dont show Howard this chart Awesome find. It shows both the improvements and confirms there has been a bit of a plateau since 2010. Perhaps the advent of AI ushers in the next leap? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: How is asking you a simple question “trying to drive you away”? You’ve criticized the use of certain indices commonly used to identify analogs. So isn’t it a fair question then how you identify analogs? You say you want non model focused discussions but 3 times recently when I attempted to engage with you in exactly that way by asking a benign question, you got weirdly hostile. As for stalking… There is no criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 On 3/14/2024 at 4:26 PM, psuhoffman said: I am going to address this and your previous post here. From 2014 to 2018 was a positive PDO spike and taken as a whole was a very snowy period. From 2007 to 2013 the PDO was negative and other than 2010 those years all sucked. There is more to the PDO than the raw numbers. It is also NOT a magic bullet operating in a vacuum. But if you look at the last 5 deeply negative PDO periods, they all sucked major ass wrt snowfall here. 1949-1957, 1971-1976, 1989-1992, 2007-2013 and 2020-2024 were the last 5 deeply negative PDO periods and they all were incredibly low snowfall here. But the PDO is not the end all wrt snowfall. We can get a +PDO low snowfall season if other factors are not good. A +AO can offset a +PDO, for example. And we have in the past been able to get a snowy winter in a -PDO, but those mostly came during weak or moderately -PDO periods not strongly -PDO cycles. Look at the 1960s for example...and the snowiest seasons came early in the 60s when the PDO was positive...yes it remained snowy into the -PDO cycle later but it was a weak to moderate -PDO cycle NOT a deeply negative one. Once the PDO went deeply negative in the early 70's the snowfall stopped! There is a matter of degrees to this. No one factor makes up 100% of the equation wrt our snowfall. But what the last 75 years suggests is that when the PDO goes into a deeply negative cycle we are in big trouble and it tends to suck. A deeply negative PDO cycle seems to overwhelm the rest of the pattern and it's very hard for us to get much snow regardless of what those other factors are doing during these ---PDO periods. When the PDO improves does it mean we suddenly get a ton of snow? No. We might get a +AO season, in which case the PDO won't matter. The truth is we are south of where it reliably snows and so we need multiple factors to line up in order to get snow. But one of those factors is the PDO and it would be very helpful if it would get out of the suck ass phase that it is in now. Thanks for this wealth of information! The 50's and 60's gave me a cautious attitude about PDO influence because most of the 50's averaged -1 to -3 (snow drought) then + 1 to +1.7 from late 57 - 62 snowy , then negative again -1 to -2 for the rest of the 60's which also produced some cold snowy winters. I am beginning a study of AO/NAO influence on MA winters and will have more comments as my study bears fruit over time. An early on empirical snapshot tells me that the AO is usually a more reliable factor than the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 On 3/15/2024 at 7:40 PM, psuhoffman said: Awesome find. It shows both the improvements and confirms there has been a bit of a plateau since 2010. Perhaps the advent of AI ushers in the next leap? I'd like to understand what the y-axis represents. It is labeled percentage, but percentage of what? What does 100% mean vs 0%? I know you didn't make the graphic. Maybe @Ji has some more data from wherever he got this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Alfredo Ruiz-Barrados, the state climatologist just put out this summary of winter 2023-2024 You can access the winter Bulletin from the following link: https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~climate/Bulletin/bulletin_mdsco_win24.pdf Points to highlight for winter 2023-24 are: 1) Winter 2023-24 was considerably warmer and wetter than normal, following warmer and wetter than normal December 2023 and January 2024, and a warmer and drier than normal February 2024. 2) The partial water year, October 2023 - February 2024, was above normal over most of the state (3-21% more than climatology), except for the southern half of Garret County (6-9% less than climatology) and western Allegany and western Charles counties (3-6% less than climatology). 3) Winter 2023-24 was the 5th warmest and 5th wettest among the 129 winters on record (1896-2024). 4) Significant, century-plus (1896-2024) warming trends exist throughout the state, particularly over the Piedmont corridor of Frederick, Montgomery, Howard, Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil counties (3.4-3.6°F/century). 5) A significant increasing trend in statewide mean temperature (3.1°F/century) is coincident with a significant decreasing trend in statewide heating degree-days (-292.2°FDD) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Nothing went wrong. Only thing that was wrong were the humans trying to predict the future. Totally normal winter and probably better then the past few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: Nothing went wrong. Only thing that was wrong were the humans trying to predict the future. Totally normal winter and probably better then the past few. Yeah, I’d have to compare my conus temp/precip maps in my outlook vs actual, should be a decent match. What went wrong was my snowfall outlook had baked in at least one big storm. Which didn’t happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I’d have to compare my conus temp/precip maps in my outlook vs actual, should be a decent match. What went wrong was my snowfall outlook had baked in at least one big storm. Which didn’t happen. i mean you made the right call. One of the wettest winters of all time....i bet you would call for a big storm again given what you know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 3 hours ago, Ji said: i mean you made the right call. One of the wettest winters of all time....i bet you would call for a big storm again given what you know At some point as it warms the odds of that one storm hitting decrease significantly. There were a few stj waves that came along and took a decent track (or would have with any cold air over the top) But the whole continent was warm. One perfect track storm rained all the way to the mountains in northern New England around Xmas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: At some point as it warms the odds of that one storm hitting decrease significantly. There were a few stj waves that came along and took a decent track (or would have with any cold air over the top) But the whole continent was warm. One perfect track storm rained all the way to the mountains in northern New England around Xmas! Yeah that new base state is really warming us all up. It's a great time to be a Warminista! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 10 hours ago, dallen7908 said: Alfredo Ruiz-Barrados, the state climatologist just put out this summary of winter 2023-2024 You can access the winter Bulletin from the following link: https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~climate/Bulletin/bulletin_mdsco_win24.pdf Points to highlight for winter 2023-24 are: 1) Winter 2023-24 was considerably warmer and wetter than normal, following warmer and wetter than normal December 2023 and January 2024, and a warmer and drier than normal February 2024. 2) The partial water year, October 2023 - February 2024, was above normal over most of the state (3-21% more than climatology), except for the southern half of Garret County (6-9% less than climatology) and western Allegany and western Charles counties (3-6% less than climatology). 3) Winter 2023-24 was the 5th warmest and 5th wettest among the 129 winters on record (1896-2024). 4) Significant, century-plus (1896-2024) warming trends exist throughout the state, particularly over the Piedmont corridor of Frederick, Montgomery, Howard, Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil counties (3.4-3.6°F/century). 5) A significant increasing trend in statewide mean temperature (3.1°F/century) is coincident with a significant decreasing trend in statewide heating degree-days (-292.2°FDD) What does all this mean? Win the powerball. Move to Mammoth Mountain. Enjoy the 10 month snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Quote “DC's winter climate is becoming SO WEAK. Consider: * 7 of last 8 winters have seen below normal snowfall * 8 of last 9 winters have seen above normal temps * Snowfall totaled over last 5-, 10-, 20- and 30-year periods is least on record.” —-from CWG today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 27 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: “DC's winter climate is becoming SO WEAK. Consider: * 7 of last 8 winters have seen below normal snowfall * 8 of last 9 winters have seen above normal temps * Snowfall totaled over last 5-, 10-, 20- and 30-year periods is least on record.” —-from CWG today yeah, a pretty sobering read from Ian today: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/03/26/dc-snow-freeze-trends-climate-winter/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 As mentioned before here and in the article, the decrease in nights with freezing temps is just astounding. 32 such nights this year and 36 last year - I mean that's less than 1/3 of nights all winter seeing freezing temps and a two year total that's closer to what we'd expect in ONE winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 20 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: As mentioned before here and in the article, the decrease in nights with freezing temps is just astounding. 32 such nights this year and 36 last year - I mean that's less than 1/3 of nights all winter seeing freezing temps and a two year total that's closer to what we'd expect in ONE winter. Yep this is what I keep ranting about, it just never cools off at night anymore. It’s becoming almost impossible to even get a hard freeze IMBY. I mowed part of the yard every month this winter except January. Another thing I’ve noticed just in the 11 years I’ve been here: the Daffodil bloom date has now solidly moved into February IMBY. It used to be March when we first moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 I wasn’t exaggerating. I terms of temps and snow since 2010 DC has had the climate we would expect from southern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wasn’t exaggerating. I terms of temps and snow since 2010 DC has had the climate we would expect from southern NC Damn. Charlotte, NC. I lived there for 18 months in 1974 to 1976. Ouch. Time to pull up roots and move to the northern Green Mountains. Or Alta, Utah. That shiny new base state, is BAD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 23 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Yep this is what I keep ranting about, it just never cools off at night anymore. It’s becoming almost impossible to even get a hard freeze IMBY. I mowed part of the yard every month this winter except January. Another thing I’ve noticed just in the 11 years I’ve been here: the Daffodil bloom date has now solidly moved into February IMBY. It used to be March when we first moved in. Same here in Texas. The new March Is February. Grass was 14 inches in places by Feb 18. Mower broke down, too. Worse, I strained my back BAD, got three weeks behind and the damn WEEDS took over moms numerous flowerbeds. Then came Bellator 304, the dogs got in a hideous fight on March 25 and I came off second best with a frightfully deep HUGE dog bite on my right leg. Obi Kenobi got me damn good. That small puppy keeps biting Obi's ear then we have a full-on Steve Irwin, Bear Grylls Animal Planet Jack London Call of the Wild free for all dog fight out on the Yukon ice as we try to get to Dawson by Spring. Not even John Thornton could help. Its a frightful din as five dogs pile into it. We are having a very early spring and the lawn and the weeds have gone full on Costa Rica on us. I am now WAY BEHIND and in serious leg pain, limping around like a Crip after a gang brawl. Every time we clean that horrible WOUND out it hurts like FUCK!. After the past 5 months it feels like my life has gone KEY BRIDGE. My recent life is why it is never gonna snow again. That new base state is kickin my ass BAD! It's so damn HOT that our entire estate is a Jungle that would fuck up Tarzan. Now I can't do a thing because the base state made the dogs so hot they fight like Rocky Balboa and my leg is fvcked up but good, doc tells me, for a month. Death's my set. Guess my religion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Since about 2011 we’ve been in a cycle of two months back to back per year are below average. If that’s March and April or October and November that’s no good. Hope soon it’s Jan and Feb El Niño did perform to standard in firing lots of moisture our way. But, only about one miller A and otherwise to the west or useless phasing job transfer. So we are in a transitional period where models don’t work and some usually reliable indexes aren’t either plus low pressure travel routes are 80-85% to our west. Changes need to be made but status quo defenders are steadfast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Our cold month is here -5 upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 The highly touted mid Feb cold push was delayed to very late March and early April. 10 consecutive days of +2 or lower with 8 negative at DCA No such streak occurred DJF thru late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Where do we go from here ? it’s clear many current resources are not working Mankind is puny but the sun, the earths rotation and revolution is not, axis angle is not, earthquakes, volcanos, massively deep oceans, tsunamis, mountain torques are not. Keep going with status quo and remain inefficient and not able to predict 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 To be honest, money dominates and things like weather can be manipulated to fit peoples wallet. I've been heavily relying on Natural Gas futures.. which are currently at a record low near 1.6.. dim prospects for cold and snow next Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/1/2024 at 4:58 PM, WEATHER53 said: Our cold month is here -5 upcoming April Fools? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Couple months ago some strong declarations that regulars were “leaving here” Why was that? Who were they? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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