What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

[psuhoffman]

@Terpeast revelstoke has snow data on their website for every season going back to 2008. You can make a graph that shows seasons snowfall by week. Take a look as it’s pretty indicative of the patterns for that area. 

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE I was just looking at some of the data and updating my enso snowfall files.  Here is the problem... La Nina's have not actually been getting any snowier...actually they are getting less snowy too, but they are getting less snowy at a much slower rate than neutral and nino's which lately have suddenly gone from being significantly better than Nina's to now sucking maybe even worse...definitely worse in the case of neutrals. 

20 years ago the data strongly indicated our best enso phase by far was Nino's, followed by neutrals and without any question the worst were Ninas.  For BWI at one point not too long ago the averages were ~28" in a nino, 19" in neutral, and 15" in a nina. 

The sad state of where we are is that Nina's are not any snowier...but that 15" average now just looks good v bad because neutrals and ninos have suddenly decided to suck because we no longer can easily get cold enough without the NS.  The problem is a lot of NS involvement while it does make us colder...or it can when the trough is in the east...it also runs interference on getting bigger juiced up storms at our latitude!  So its a catch 22.  The problem is we are no so freaking warm without the NS that we might be better off rooting for that and taking the nickel and dime crap we can get because everything else equals a no chance shit the blinds torch pattern. 

The problem is this leaves us very little chance of a "what used to be considered" a snowy winter...one where all the airports go over 30" for example.  I just don't know what would even give us a good chance of that right now given how warm it is when the NS gets out of the way, and the fact the NS being involved makes it less likely to get big storms. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast just a thought, sorry if you already know this…if you do go to the powder highway resorts Jan and early Feb are good (often Jan better than Feb) but I wouldn’t book in advance later.  First of all they typically get dumped reliably early in November, December and early January when the pac jet is further north.  They also aren’t high elevation and can start getting thaw freeze cycles in Feb and even in recent Nina’s it’s been warm at times out west too.  Plus sometimes in Feb as the pac jet relaxes some the storm cycles can start sliding south of them.
 

This is in contrast to the southern very high elevation resorts in Colorado where later is often better.  

I didn’t already know this. Good intel, thanks!

[cbmclean]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I grunted it!

You grunted it?

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

You grunted it?

That’s how hard it was to type all that. 

[Jebman]

On 3/1/2024 at 9:23 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

So am I. I laid out in the snow for a good 10 mins just appreciating having even that much snow to lie in (in fact, I wish I'd stayed out there longer!). It may be little while before we that again. 

And overall...we need to be thankful for what most of us (except for maybe a couple posters) experienced between 2009-2016. Epic stuff!

Next time you lay in the snow to appreciate it I will drop by and shovel fresh pow from Mammoth over you to make it a singularly memorable experience lol.

This is what in the snow resort space we refer to as a genuine 'Jebman Special'.

[Jebman]

13 hours ago, Terpeast said:

A look ahead to the 2024-25 winter... not for our own backyards, but WHERE to travel and chase (and when):

New CanSIPs just came out, and it performed well on a smoothed/seasonal basis for this winter. It showed a wet first half, then a slightly drier second half, and a mostly warm CONUS with near normal/slightly BN southeast. 

So here's what it is showing for next winter now...

 

1) Moderate-strong La Nina, basinwide or even a little bit modoki. MJO should be active in the eastern IO through the MC (phases 3, 4, and 5). Negative PDO signature appears obvious, with that marine heatwave off Japan still ongoing and no signs of ceasing.

 

2) Standard La Nina h5 configuration enhanced by overall warming with a solid +AO/+NAO (or lack of blocking overall). Take away that -NAO block in December 2022 in the 2022-23 winter, then you'll get a good idea of what this winter is going to be like.

 

3) Again, a mostly warm CONUS just like this year, except the warmest anomalies are displaced south across New Mexico, Texas, and through the Tennessee Valley. (I wonder what raindancewx has to say about his backyard having the warmest anomalies). 

However, the west coast and Pacific Northwest are depicted to have near to slightly below normal temperatures.

 

4) Opposite to this winter, the south and southeast are depicted to be drier than normal. It would not surprise me if we got a hot and dry summer, with drought conditions redeveloping across the east. 

Wettest anomalies are shown over the Pacific Northwest, and with normal to slightly below normal temps, the mountains in that area could be the best places to chase.

My brother lives in Spokane, and they may be set for a great/historic winter next year. Seriously considering an extended two-week visit there, renting a car, staying with him for 4-5 days, then drive to Montana's rockies for a few days, then back. Or if the Cascades are about to get a big one, we could chase there instead.

 

Again, this is to show you where to plan your chases for next winter, not for snow in your backyards.

 

Excellent point.

Weather is changing. We need to start thinking in terms of mobile backyards. Figure which mountain regions will get obliterated by snow then go there and get your massive snow fix.

I live in south TX. My mobile backyard is located in Tahoe or in Mammoth, particularly  that Woolly complex. That place gets destroyed a lot by both damaging winds and torrential snows.

Heavy snow is great for a fix. But there is nothing like a decent dose of severe Category 5 winds to get things nice and spicy!

[Ji]

I think people are being too lazy with regards to next year winter outlook. I bet it’s way snowier than we think . Study Nina’s after ninos

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think people are being too lazy with regards to next year winter outlook. I bet it’s way snowier than we think . Study Nina’s after ninos

What examples are you using?  

[psuhoffman]

@Ji I think it fully depends on if the pdo cycle continues. But it’s unlikely to flip heading into a Nina. Unfortunately Nina’s following a Nino in a strongly -pdo cycle are not as favorable. Look at the Nina’s in the early 50s and 70s, 2017 and 2020. Yea 2020 was a neutral but in a strong Nina base state it behaved like a Nina following a Nino. Additionally you have to impose the current temp regime into Past analogs.  Even if we got a 2006 repeat for instance, the 3 biggest snow events that winter were all extremely marginal wrt temps and likely would just be rain right now in this current torched pacific PDO regime!   

[Ji]

[mention=514]Ji[/mention] I think it fully depends on if the pdo cycle continues. But it’s unlikely to flip heading into a Nina. Unfortunately Nina’s following a Nino in a strongly -pdo cycle are not as favorable. Look at the Nina’s in the early 50s and 70s, 2017 and 2020. Yea 2020 was a neutral but in a strong Nina base state it behaved like a Nina following a Nino. Additionally you have to impose the current temp regime into Past analogs.  Even if we got a 2006 repeat for instance, the 3 biggest snow events that winter were all extremely marginal wrt temps and likely would just be rain right now in this current torched pacific PDO regime!   

It’s been negative every month since 2020!

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s been negative every month since 2020!

Yea, you're right if you just look at all ninas following nino's its not that bad...but next year has a LOT stacked against it.  Severely -PDO regime, very very warm current base state, unfavorable QBO, likely past solar max so unfavorable there too... just not much to be optimistic about unfortunately.  Just hope for a fluke.  2000 was a good example.  That year was just awful the whole winter except 10 days...and we got 3 snows in those 10 days and remember it as a good winter. 

[IronTy]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

I think people are being too lazy with regards to next year winter outlook. I bet it’s way snowier than we think . Study Nina’s after ninos

It can't be any worse than this winter was.  So at least there's that.  

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, IronTy said:

It can't be any worse than this winter was.  So at least there's that.  

It absolutely can. 2022-23 is looking like a decent analog match. Nothing is off the table 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

I think people are being too lazy with regards to next year winter outlook. I bet it’s way snowier than we think . Study Nina’s after ninos

The sample size for this is way too small, and even still, I can’t find one that isn’t a dud other than 95/96.

[psuhoffman]

@Ji remember when you kept saying "you hope that one week with 2 minor snows wasnt our "january 1987".  Well 2 of my top analogs were 1966 and 1987.  Both had one epic week in January and then a fluke "warm" snowstorm in February.  Look at this winter...we had one cold week in January with 2 snows but they were minor then in mid Feb there was a perfect track rainstorm where I got 6" of slop.  Maybe this was those winters but adjusted for today's climate.  Warmer with a faster more energetic NS running interference.  This is just what that produces now. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The sample size for this is way too small, and even still, I can’t find one that isn’t a dud other than 95/96.

2006 wasnt bad...but if you adjust that season to the post 2016 warmer reality most of the snow from that season might end up rain. 

[Ji]

2006 wasnt bad...but if you adjust that season to the post 2016 warmer reality most of the snow from that season might end up rain. 

What about 2010-11? You always say it's important when it snows in NYC and Boston in regards for us being in the game

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[PrinceFrederickWx]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2006 wasnt bad...but if you adjust that season to the post 2016 warmer reality most of the snow from that season might end up rain. 

All I remember from that winter was a never-ending blowtorch with a one-and-done MECS in February that melted quickly (would that be rain now?)... but then I looked up December 2005 and on paper it does look pretty good. For some reason I forgot about that December. Honestly at this point just seeing advisory level snow in December like that would make me happy, I'm not even sure if we're capable of it anymore.

[Terpeast]

10 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

one-and-done MECS in February that melted quickly (would that be rain now?)... 

IAD got 8" (the best banding was to the east over Fairfax county through Columbia, MD) and I used two methods to figure what it would be today in a warmer climate. One still 8", and another drops it to 4-5".

I'd take the under on 8" though.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

IAD got 8" (the best banding was to the east over Fairfax county through Columbia, MD) and I used two methods to figure what it would be today in a warmer climate. One still 8", and another drops it to 4-5".

I'd take the under on 8" though.

How did you determine the current temp base state?  With the temps having spiked so much the last 9 years might those methods be underestimating the warmth at all. I know some if this current extreme warmth might be cyclical not permanent so I’m not saying we should have estimated it based on the last 5 years but wondering if when adjusting a winter from prior to 2016 if right now we’re in a worse spot than even that method indicates. 

[Ji]

13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji remember when you kept saying "you hope that one week with 2 minor snows wasnt our "january 1987".  Well 2 of my top analogs were 1966 and 1987.  Both had one epic week in January and then a fluke "warm" snowstorm in February.  Look at this winter...we had one cold week in January with 2 snows but they were minor then in mid Feb there was a perfect track rainstorm where I got 6" of slop.  Maybe this was those winters but adjusted for today's climate.  Warmer with a faster more energetic NS running interference.  This is just what that produces now. 

we never had a Miller A storm this winter when it was cold enough. We wasted some much precipitation. Those 2 January snows apparently were more Nina Type of events that normal. Even the Feb one that trended north was not your classic Track. The Jan 6-7 was the biggest heartbreaker this season

[Terpeast]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How did you determine the current temp base state?  With the temps having spiked so much the last 9 years might those methods be underestimating the warmth at all. I know some if this current extreme warmth might be cyclical not permanent so I’m not saying we should have estimated it based on the last 5 years but wondering if when adjusting a winter from prior to 2016 if right now we’re in a worse spot than even that method indicates. 

Used a linear trend from the 60s to date, and then applied a warmer temp correction on the 2006 snowfall to today’s climate based on that trend. 

One one hand, 2006 wasn’t that long ago so the correction may not have been more than a degree or so. Otoh, linear trend by definition doesn’t account for nonlinearity nor any acceleration in warming. So like I said, I’d take the under on my own numbers. Could just have been 3” of slop instead of a foot+

[IronTy]

16 hours ago, Terpeast said:

It absolutely can. 2022-23 is looking like a decent analog match. Nothing is off the table 

No way.  Last winter was obvious it was not going to snow so expectations were low and the winter delivered on that.

This winter was hyped up to no end even up til just a week or two ago and all I got was one storm that put down 1.5" and another that literally accumulated and melted all during my morning time on the toilet.  

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Every time the west coast gets atmospheric rivers in the winter it’s mild and snowless here. As soon as the winter week was over in January California got a conga line of atmospheric river storms.

 

Same thing happened last year too, and in 2016-2017. Whatever mechanism causes this is probably one of the things stacked against us.

[KAOS]

Everything. No.

[Terpeast]

17 hours ago, IronTy said:

No way.  Last winter was obvious it was not going to snow so expectations were low and the winter delivered on that.

This winter was hyped up to no end even up til just a week or two ago and all I got was one storm that put down 1.5" and another that literally accumulated and melted all during my morning time on the toilet.  

 

The upside was much higher, yes… but in the back of my mind, my greatest fear was a warmer version of a 1972-73, which was the only match if you looked at the PDO and ENSO. There was always a non-zero chance for a ratter, and to be fair, most of our subforum did avoid a rat. We just fell short of climo and way short of the upside, where our expectations were. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

The upside was much higher, yes… but in the back of my mind, my greatest fear was a warmer version of a 1972-73, which was the only match if you looked at the PDO and ENSO. There was always a non-zero chance for a ratter, and to be fair, most of our subforum did avoid a rat. We just fell short of climo and way short of the upside, where our expectations were. 

If we compare this -PDO period to the two previous DEEPLY -PDO cycles most similar, the early to mid 50's and early to mid 70s this isn't that much different.  The results are about 10-20% worse which is in line with what we would expect from warming.  What makes this period a LOT worse so far is that we had 2 bad winters before the -PDO even really got going where as those two previous periods were bookended by snowy periods on both sides.  But even that is likely an artifact of warming...2018 and 2019 might have both been 20" winters back then and we would be thinking this current dreg period was only a few years v 8.  Big difference from a small nudge in the wrong direction from climo.  

[Ji]

What kind of Nina do we want next year. Euro seemed to lean neutral to weak in the seasonal

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

What kind of Nina do we want next year. Euro seemed to lean neutral to weak in the seasonal

Snow means say weak but that’s skewed by 1996. If you remove 1996 data says they’re all pretty similar wrt snowfall. Weaker ones do have a colder mean though.