What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

@psuhoffman I was just thinking that last year, CA mountains received record snowfall during a La Nina year, and now they are again getting record snowfall during an El Nino year. ENSO doesn’t seem to matter. I think that gives your posts about opposite pacific configurations giving the same western trough eastern ridge more validity than people seem to be giving it. I don’t know if this is caused by CC, or just part of a cycle. We used to have a persistent western ridge eastern trough for years while I was growing up here, and I thought that was a permanent fixture of north american climate. The opposite seems to be happening now, which makes me think it is more cyclical. 

Yea, I am definitely NOT saying this is climate change.  I don't know.  But there has been very little discussion around this phenomenon at all, and that surprises me.  I think because it's being written off as part of the larger PDO cycle.  And a LARGE part of the western trough eastern ridge is most definitely related to the PDO.  Yes the pacific has spend the vast majority of the time in a configuration that is conducive to a western trough eastern ridge longwave pattern.  

But there is variance within that.  Just like we don't have an eastern trough 100% of the time in a positive PDO there is variability to the pacific pattern in a -PDO.  The issue is I've noticed that during the perhaps 30% of the time where the pacific longwave pattern is not such that should amplify a trough in the west, about half that time it still is.  Waves are coming in off the pacific and just wanting to amplify in the west regardless of what the upstream pattern is.  I am just trying to flag this and start a conversation about it since I think this is part of what's making this period even worse than a typical -PDO cycle.  

I threw out 2 factors I can think of.  The SER being fed not just by the western pattern but also by the warmer waters downstream could be offering some resistance...and stronger waves coming in off the pacific perhaps making it more likely they amplify sooner and then get stuck in the mountain west due to feedback there.  Then you get an awful feedback loop between these 2 factors where the SER slows down the waves some which are already stronger and then they amplify more which pumps the ridge in front more...and UGH.  

But I have no idea if that is it.  But no one else is even talking about it at all and offering other ideas.  I am open to any ideas.  I am not really open to the "this isn't actually happening" arguments because I've seen it too often.  The waves obviously eventually come east...and its not happening all the time, yes sometimes we get a perfect EPO/PNA ridge that forces a huge trough into the east at times...but quite often even when the longwave configuration in the central and eastern pac would suggest waves should kick east before amplifying they are still amplifying more west first which pumps a ridge in front which means even when they do kick east its not going to work for us because there is too much heat in front of them.  I see this...and I see no discussion about it which is frustrating because above all else I want to learn and understand.  

[ldub23]

I  made a  post way  back in nov  or dec saying  it wasnt going to get  cold  in the east as  long as it was  cold  in alaska and wet  in california. Naturally  i was called an idiot. Next season when the  winter forecasts  come  out  in sept-nov remember how they failed this year. We will have many posts during  next winter with all kinds  of indices, strat warms, neg nao's, and east  coast trofs. Hopefully next winter we will actually  have a  cold snowy winter but  lets simplify the forecasts. Look to Alaska, if they are having an above  normal temp start thats  good for  us. If California  looks  like  it will be dry thats also good for  us. Those are the  2 best  indicators for winter  in the east.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea, I am definitely NOT saying this is climate change.  I don't know.  But there has been very little discussion around this phenomenon at all, and that surprises me.  I think because it's being written off as part of the larger PDO cycle.  And a LARGE part of the western trough eastern ridge is most definitely related to the PDO.  Yes the pacific has spend the vast majority of the time in a configuration that is conducive to a western trough eastern ridge longwave pattern.  

But there is variance within that.  Just like we don't have an eastern trough 100% of the time in a positive PDO there is variability to the pacific pattern in a -PDO.  The issue is I've noticed that during the perhaps 30% of the time where the pacific longwave pattern is not such that should amplify a trough in the west, about half that time it still is.  Waves are coming in off the pacific and just wanting to amplify in the west regardless of what the upstream pattern is.  I am just trying to flag this and start a conversation about it since I think this is part of what's making this period even worse than a typical -PDO cycle.  

I threw out 2 factors I can think of.  The SER being fed not just by the western pattern but also by the warmer waters downstream could be offering some resistance...and stronger waves coming in off the pacific perhaps making it more likely they amplify sooner and then get stuck in the mountain west due to feedback there.  Then you get an awful feedback loop between these 2 factors where the SER slows down the waves some which are already stronger and then they amplify more which pumps the ridge in front more...and UGH.  

But I have no idea if that is it.  But no one else is even talking about it at all and offering other ideas.  I am open to any ideas.  I am not really open to the "this isn't actually happening" arguments because I've seen it too often.  The waves obviously eventually come east...and its not happening all the time, yes sometimes we get a perfect EPO/PNA ridge that forces a huge trough into the east at times...but quite often even when the longwave configuration in the central and eastern pac would suggest waves should kick east before amplifying they are still amplifying more west first which pumps a ridge in front which means even when they do kick east its not going to work for us because there is too much heat in front of them.  I see this...and I see no discussion about it which is frustrating because above all else I want to learn and understand.  

I get your frustration around the lack of discussion of what's causing the ridge/trough flip. I notice this more and more, but tbh I don't have any good answers to offer as to what's causing this. Really. Gun to head, I'll still say "I don't know." 

I hope we get some real answers either from yet another shift in the pattern, or from climate scientists smarter than us publishing new papers on this.

We could blame the MJO, but I think that's too convenient of a target. It could be the +EAMT since all the cold has been on the other side. It could be the Atlantic, but I'm not buying it 100%. Again, I hope the answers become clearer to us sooner than later.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

This was the warmest winter on record for the contiguous USA:

I had thought that this was only the 3rd warmest?

[cbmclean]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I get your frustration around the lack of discussion of what's causing the ridge/trough flip. I notice this more and more, but tbh I don't have any good answers to offer as to what's causing this. Really. Gun to head, I'll still say "I don't know." 

I hope we get some real answers either from yet another shift in the pattern, or from climate scientists smarter than us publishing new papers on this.

We could blame the MJO, but I think that's too convenient of a target. It could be the +EAMT since all the cold has been on the other side. It could be the Atlantic, but I'm not buying it 100%. Again, I hope the answers become clearer to us sooner than later.

TNH?

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I had thought that this was only the 3rd warmest?

That was as of a week ago...its been warm.  But also, not sure if his data is the same, what I saw the NWS release might have included Alaska and Hawaii.  

[pazzo83]

On 2/29/2024 at 10:11 AM, psuhoffman said:

Even with 2014-2015 DC is averaging the same climo wrt temps and snowfall as central NC since 2010.  It's averaging the same climo as SC since 2016.  

This winter (DJF) in DC averaged 43.2F.  Last winter was 44F.  Like you said, that's a typical winter like 200-300 miles south of here.

[pazzo83]

On 2/29/2024 at 12:43 PM, cbmclean said:

I could have sworn that 2012-2013 was a Pac Puke year.  I seem to remember that being the year I learned about the joys of the Alaska vortex.

we were living in midtown at the time and restaurants never took in their outdoor seating for the winter lol

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

This winter (DJF) in DC averaged 43.2F.  Last winter was 44F.  Like you said, that's a typical winter like 200-300 miles south of here.

Not much difference, even though it felt much colder this year thanks to the mid-Jan wintry week with two SECS that trended the right way for us. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

 Always been a believer that the earth has a way of balancing itself out naturally. Sometimes gradually over time...years, decades, centuries, eras....other times thru extreme sudden events. PSU had been poking tongue in cheek about underwater volcanoes. Ironically,an article surfaced in my news feed the other morning about Yellowstone. I wonder if something like that supervolcano (even tho some some scientists dispute that it would ever erupt) would spark a sudden reversal wrt to the elephant? I mean, we've all read the articles about how warming supposedly has created more extremes and shifts in weather. Will something this extreme be the balancing act someday? They don't know how long effects would last but scientists seem convinced it would lead to a nuclear winter scenario. I dunno, just throwing my thoughts/$.02 in the pot if this hasn't been offered as a scenario already. The earth balances itself out over time  in mysterious ways.

[pazzo83]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Not much difference, even though it felt much colder this year thanks to the mid-Jan wintry week with two SECS that trended the right way for us. 

i am really thankful for that week - better than nothing.

[pazzo83]

lol Fargo, ND was +14F on the entire season jfc

 

[Terpeast]

49 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

i am really thankful for that week - better than nothing.

That’s the best attitude we can have and carry through the year, and possibly through next winter. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

i am really thankful for that week - better than nothing.

So am I. I laid out in the snow for a good 10 mins just appreciating having even that much snow to lie in (in fact, I wish I'd stayed out there longer!). It may be little while before we that again. 

And overall...we need to be thankful for what most of us (except for maybe a couple posters) experienced between 2009-2016. Epic stuff!

[psuhoffman]

This is pathetic 

[MN Transplant]

10 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

lol Fargo, ND was +14F on the entire season jfc

 

Over 4 degrees above the now 2nd place record.  That is insane.

[EastCoast NPZ]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is pathetic 

My thoughts exactly.

[Terpeast]

A look ahead to the 2024-25 winter... not for our own backyards, but WHERE to travel and chase (and when):

New CanSIPs just came out, and it performed well on a smoothed/seasonal basis for this winter. It showed a wet first half, then a slightly drier second half, and a mostly warm CONUS with near normal/slightly BN southeast. 

So here's what it is showing for next winter now...

 

1) Moderate-strong La Nina, basinwide or even a little bit modoki. MJO should be active in the eastern IO through the MC (phases 3, 4, and 5). Negative PDO signature appears obvious, with that marine heatwave off Japan still ongoing and no signs of ceasing.

 

2) Standard La Nina h5 configuration enhanced by overall warming with a solid +AO/+NAO (or lack of blocking overall). Take away that -NAO block in December 2022 in the 2022-23 winter, then you'll get a good idea of what this winter is going to be like.

 

3) Again, a mostly warm CONUS just like this year, except the warmest anomalies are displaced south across New Mexico, Texas, and through the Tennessee Valley. (I wonder what raindancewx has to say about his backyard having the warmest anomalies). 

However, the west coast and Pacific Northwest are depicted to have near to slightly below normal temperatures.

 

4) Opposite to this winter, the south and southeast are depicted to be drier than normal. It would not surprise me if we got a hot and dry summer, with drought conditions redeveloping across the east. 

Wettest anomalies are shown over the Pacific Northwest, and with normal to slightly below normal temps, the mountains in that area could be the best places to chase.

My brother lives in Spokane, and they may be set for a great/historic winter next year. Seriously considering an extended two-week visit there, renting a car, staying with him for 4-5 days, then drive to Montana's rockies for a few days, then back. Or if the Cascades are about to get a big one, we could chase there instead.

 

Again, this is to show you where to plan your chases for next winter, not for snow in your backyards.

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

A look ahead to the 2024-25 winter... not for our own backyards, but WHERE to travel and chase (and when):

New CanSIPs just came out, and it performed well on a smoothed/seasonal basis for this winter. It showed a wet first half, then a slightly drier second half, and a mostly warm CONUS with near normal/slightly BN southeast. 

So here's what it is showing for next winter now...

 

1) Moderate-strong La Nina, basinwide or even a little bit modoki. MJO should be active in the eastern IO through the MC (phases 3, 4, and 5). Negative PDO signature appears obvious, with that marine heatwave off Japan still ongoing and no signs of ceasing.

 

2) Standard La Nina h5 configuration enhanced by overall warming with a solid +AO/+NAO (or lack of blocking overall). Take away that -NAO block in December 2022 in the 2022-23 winter, then you'll get a good idea of what this winter is going to be like.

 

3) Again, a mostly warm CONUS just like this year, except the warmest anomalies are displaced south across New Mexico, Texas, and through the Tennessee Valley. (I wonder what raindancewx has to say about his backyard having the warmest anomalies). 

However, the west coast and Pacific Northwest are depicted to have near to slightly below normal temperatures.

 

4) Opposite to this winter, the south and southeast are depicted to be drier than normal. It would not surprise me if we got a hot and dry summer, with drought conditions redeveloping across the east. 

Wettest anomalies are shown over the Pacific Northwest, and with normal to slightly below normal temps, the mountains in that area could be the best places to chase.

My brother lives in Spokane, and they may be set for a great/historic winter next year. Seriously considering an extended two-week visit there, renting a car, staying with him for 4-5 days, then drive to Montana's rockies for a few days, then back. Or if the Cascades are about to get a big one, we could chase there instead.

 

Again, this is to show you where to plan your chases for next winter, not for snow in your backyards.

 

Next year might be perfect to hit up the powder highway resorts in BC!  

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

A look ahead to the 2024-25 winter... not for our own backyards, but WHERE to travel and chase (and when):

New CanSIPs just came out, and it performed well on a smoothed/seasonal basis for this winter. It showed a wet first half, then a slightly drier second half, and a mostly warm CONUS with near normal/slightly BN southeast. 

So here's what it is showing for next winter now...

 

1) Moderate-strong La Nina, basinwide or even a little bit modoki. MJO should be active in the eastern IO through the MC (phases 3, 4, and 5). Negative PDO signature appears obvious, with that marine heatwave off Japan still ongoing and no signs of ceasing.

 

2) Standard La Nina h5 configuration enhanced by overall warming with a solid +AO/+NAO (or lack of blocking overall). Take away that -NAO block in December 2022 in the 2022-23 winter, then you'll get a good idea of what this winter is going to be like.

 

3) Again, a mostly warm CONUS just like this year, except the warmest anomalies are displaced south across New Mexico, Texas, and through the Tennessee Valley. (I wonder what raindancewx has to say about his backyard having the warmest anomalies). 

However, the west coast and Pacific Northwest are depicted to have near to slightly below normal temperatures.

 

4) Opposite to this winter, the south and southeast are depicted to be drier than normal. It would not surprise me if we got a hot and dry summer, with drought conditions redeveloping across the east. 

Wettest anomalies are shown over the Pacific Northwest, and with normal to slightly below normal temps, the mountains in that area could be the best places to chase.

My brother lives in Spokane, and they may be set for a great/historic winter next year. Seriously considering an extended two-week visit there, renting a car, staying with him for 4-5 days, then drive to Montana's rockies for a few days, then back. Or if the Cascades are about to get a big one, we could chase there instead.

 

Again, this is to show you where to plan your chases for next winter, not for snow in your backyards.

 

Still though, the weenies here will be insufferable next winter.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Still though, the weenies here will be insufferable next winter.

I think it won’t be as bad as the last few years. This year was the final kick in the nuts for most I think. For the last 5 years many who tried to deny how bad it’s getting have said the same thing “wait for a Nino”. That was their hold lot hope. Well we got one, and with a -QBO and solar max no less! And it was the warmest winter ever with below normal snow. 
 

With that last false hope rug pulled I think at this point all except the most insanely delusional few have come to accept our new reality and that 90% of our winters are just going to suck.  Sure once in a while we will luck into a 2010 or 2014 or a 2016 type storm but for the most part we should enter every winter with the expectation it’s going to suck ass with way less than “average” snowfall and so as those new expectations set it people won’t complain as much once we all come to accept we are what NC was 20 years ago and snow just isn’t normal here anymore. 

 

The good news is we will eventually get a period with more above Normal snowfall seasons. I grunted it!  That’s because at this rate in 20 years our average snow will be like 7” and then these dreg winters will just be normal!  

[JenkinsJinkies]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For the last 5 years many who tried to deny how bad it’s getting have said the same thing “wait for a Nino”. That was their hold lot hope.

I can see them moving over to the PDO since that's the one variable that hasn't changed yet.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I can see them moving over to the PDO since that's the one variable that hasn't changed yet.

The PDO isn’t the end all be all. It was solidly positive during 97-98.

Carver’s Gap in his TN forum said that we may be at the beginning of a -AO/-NAO cycle, but I thought we’d be going into an extended period of +NAO given where we are heading into the solar cycle the next 5-8 years or so.

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Next year might be perfect to hit up the powder highway resorts in BC!  

That’s what I’m thinking! Fly to Spokane, link up with my bro, and drive up across the border

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That’s what I’m thinking! Fly to Spokane, link up with my bro, and drive up across the border

Schweitzer, Redd, Revelstoke, Panorama and Sun Peaks are all on ikon. If my brother can get a whole week off next winter some combo of those would be my preferred trip. 
 

Southwest has flights to Spokane. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Schweitzer, Redd, Revelstoke, Panorama and Sun Peaks are all on ikon. If my brother can get a whole week off next winter some combo of those would be my preferred trip. 
 

Southwest has flights to Spokane. 

Yep. I’m working on the reward points now, should be able to get the new member bonus that’ll probably pay for our flights. 

[Ji]

Yep. I’m working on the reward points now, should be able to get the new member bonus that’ll probably pay for our flights. 

You guys do realize we are 2 to 2.5 hours driving from areas that do better than much of New England

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

You guys do realize we are 2 to 2.5 hours driving from areas that do better than much of New England

I can’t speak for Terp but I go out west primarily for the skiing. If I just wanted to see snow yes I’d just drive somewhere. I’ve done snow fix weekends to western MD and WV.  

[raindancewx]

I doubt the models really have the orientation of SSTs right for next winter. It could definitely be very warm out here for 2024-25. But truth be told, a lot of the Modoki La Ninas are pretty good for snow out here. The Modoki El Ninos and Modoki La Nina both tend to see one of the dominant ENSO signs fail more often than the east-based events. The El Nino signs here are ~70% cold / ~70% wet, and the La Nina signs here are ~70% warm / ~70% wet.

In Modoki El Ninos a lot of times the wet signal fails in winter (see: 1957-58, 2009-10, etc), and in Modoki La Ninas a lot times the warm signal fails (1974-75, 1984-85, 2000-01, 2020-21, 2022-23).

One other thing that's lost is that La Nina tends to amplify the temperature differentials in the mid-latitudes by enhancing dry air. So here in the desert, with drier air and more sunshine, we tend to have very cold nights in a lot of -PDO/La Nina setups. In El Nino, moist air is abundant and the mid-latitudes have lower temperature differential v. the tropics, so we tend to have a lot of warm nights and cold highs. The caveat to that is that enhanced snow and snow cover duration offsets the warm nights. The 2022-23 La Nina had something like 112 nights with lows that were freezing or colder from Oct-May. That's a pretty severe winter by lows for us - even though the highs were not cold.

Whether any of you believe me or not, there is a real tendency for the West to face incredible periods of severe cold in La Nina following years of low hurricane activity in the Atlantic. All of our record cold events, even in the Southwest are in La Nina. Look at February 2011, November 2000, January 1971, etc. La Nina climatology for the Southwest is persistent warmth, like 70 of 90 days that are +3 or more, with 20 or so days that are -5. The "harsh" La Ninas just have the 20, or 30 cold days at -10 or -20 v. means instead of -5. So you're really just trying to predict the harshness and duration of the brief cold periods.

[psuhoffman]

@Terpeast just a thought, sorry if you already know this…if you do go to the powder highway resorts Jan and early Feb are good (often Jan better than Feb) but I wouldn’t book in advance later.  First of all they typically get dumped reliably early in November, December and early January when the pac jet is further north.  They also aren’t high elevation and can start getting thaw freeze cycles in Feb and even in recent Nina’s it’s been warm at times out west too.  Plus sometimes in Feb as the pac jet relaxes some the storm cycles can start sliding south of them.
 

This is in contrast to the southern very high elevation resorts in Colorado where later is often better.