Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 You know who. And ya I know they will never be convinced. It will be 2050 and Baltimore won’t have had a warning event for 30 years and they will still be saying “it’s just cyclical, we just can’t know, underwater volcanoes, aaaahhhhh, don’t talk about CC” because either it’s too depressing for them to admit OR their politics won’t allow them. But in a stubborn SOB! I couldn’t have lasted 17 years teaching HS in inner city Baltimore if I wasn’t. ETA: and I know you aren’t in those categories and my rant wasn’t even at you even though it was a reply to you, it’s that in fairness you give the head in the sand crew ammunition when you say stuff like “well the pattern isn’t actually good for snow”. Yea I know. But we used to and I guess I’m not ready to come to peace with the fact we can’t anymore, get snow in a bad pattern if we get lucky from a perfect wave track. We’ve had 4-5 good winters since 2013-14. We’re just in a little slump. We didn’t get the classic modiki Nino either so that’s still in our back pocket 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I didn’t even look at the run. It was a joke. But….and I promise this is the last time (at least in this thread) that I’ll say this…but several years ago when I did that case study of every Baltimore 4”+ snowstorm I was shocked how many actually featured a totally shit god awful pattern with reds and blues in all the wrong places with a pile airmass where it was 50 degrees the day before and the only thing that went right was somehow by some means the storm took a perfect track and so we got a 6” wet snow paste bomb storm. Obviously that wasn’t the majority of our storms and it’s not how we want to roll. I’m not saying we root for crap patterns. But it was enough of the storms that if we can’t ever get that kind of thing anymore, where it snows just because of a good track in an awful pattern, then it’s going to hurt us A Fooking Lot! Way more than some here want to admit! Just off the top of my head without even looking at the files… Our only real snow in 1997 came in a god awful pattern because we got lucky with a wave track. Look at this BS…we got a 4-8” snow from THIS BS on a stick pattern. 1976 would have been a completely snowless winter if not for a 10” wet snow storm that came in a pattern that had no business snowing in. There was another year in the early 90s where our only 2 significant snows both came in a pattern that had no business snowing. Yea it was a crap year but most had like 10-15” not NOTHING! You know what they all have in common. They’re a long ass time ago. It’s not happening anymore. There were a lot in the 50s, 60s, 70s, then they started to decline and they’ve gone extinct the last 10 years. Lately our bad patterns are so warm that it doesn’t matter what the track is. And every time I hear the same thing…but this wasn’t perfect. That wasn’t perfect. The high was too this or that. There was too much ridging in front. Yea no shit I know it can still snow if every fucking thing goes perfect. Yea if we get a 980 low off VA beach with a 1040 high over Montreal and a -3stdv block with a -epo arctic air mass yes we will get a shit ton of snow. But that’s going to happen once a decade. What about the rest of the god damn time? We had so many bad but not awful winters in the past where if you take away a couple snows that came from pure luck in a shit pattern they are suddenly a 3” snow year instead of 12” or absolutely nothing instead of 10” like 1976! lastly I know it’s impossible to prove what storms would or wouldn’t have been a snow 30 years ago. Not without tools I don’t have access too. There were perfect track rains in the 50s too when it was just too warm for any track to overcome. But there were some snows too! So while I can’t prove anything because of any one storm…when it happens over and over and over and none of them seem to be snow outside the higher elevations anymore…the preponderance of evidence is damning. For many years, I had hoped that there would be some weird, surprising reason why a warmer earth produces more snow for my back yard. “Jetweirding” producing more high latitude blocking! Late season snowicanes like Sandy (minus the destruction ideally, though I’ll take some beach erosion for a tropical snowstorm in early November)! And honestly, the jury is still out! We still don’t have the data to say. But the last few years have been dispiriting. And the simplest answer is probably the correct one: warmer seas are pushing the thermal boundary inland. Less snow cover in our cold air source regions means less cold air here. The end. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 34 minutes ago, snowfan said: How many times are you going to tell us about your 4” storm case study? You have turned into a broken record. Every time it’s applicable to analyzing something. I didn’t do that not to use it. But let’s cut through the BS shall we. The really disingenuous thing with this tact is absolutely EVERYTHING in this thread is repetitive. We’ve had every possible pattern before. Every type of storm. Every time you discuss a snowstorm you don’t say this. Because it’s a new damn storm. But it’s the same type of storm as hundreds before. it’s the same analysis. The same analogs. And we discuss the history. We repeat the same things over and over. And no one says a god damn thing. When we post a snow forecast map that looks like 500 storms before you don’t say this BS. As long as we’re analyzing why it will snow it’s fine if we repeat the same stuff 100 times. No one has ever told anyone to shut up when they post a similar great looking map to 5000 before. But when I do the same exact thing with a fail and point out how it’s similar to other fails lately and analyze why and compare it to the past and hypothesize why its a fail (hint it’s been really fooking warm lately) then you break out this BS garbage nonsense to suppress a topic you just don’t like. It’s the same repetitive analysis as we do when it’s going to snow! You don’t actually care because it’s repetitive. Because you don’t say a damn thing when we’re repetitive about stuff you like. But that’s hard to win with so you try this BS instead as a passive end around to squash the topic when the real issue is you just dont like what Im saying. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 21 minutes ago, Ji said: We’ve had 4-5 good winters since 2013-14. We’re just in a little slump. We didn’t get the classic modiki Nino either so that’s still in our back pocket Name the 5 good winters since 2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Every time it’s applicable to analyzing something. I didn’t do that not to use it. But let’s cut through the BS shall we. The really disingenuous thing with this tact is absolutely EVERYTHING in this thread is repetitive. We’ve had every possible pattern before. Every type of storm. Every time you discuss a snowstorm you don’t say this. Because it’s a new damn storm. But it’s the same type of storm as hundreds before. it’s the same analysis. The same analogs. And we discuss the history. We repeat the same things over and over. And no one says a god damn thing. When we post a snow forecast map that looks like 500 storms before you don’t say this BS. As long as we’re analyzing why it will snow it’s fine if we repeat the same stuff 100 times. No one has ever told anyone to shut up when they post a similar great looking map to 5000 before. But when I do the same exact thing with a fail and point out how it’s similar to other fails lately and analyze why and compare it to the past and hypothesize why its a fail (hint it’s been really fooking warm lately) then you break out this BS garbage nonsense to suppress a topic you just don’t like. It’s the same repetitive analysis as we do when it’s going to snow! You don’t actually care because it’s repetitive. Because you don’t say a damn thing when we’re repetitive about stuff you like. But that’s hard to win with so you try this BS instead as a passive end around to squash the topic when the real issue is you just dont like what Im saying. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Name the 5 good winters since 2014 13-13 14-15 15–16 19-20 and the one epic January for cape and i95 east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Fantastic way to end an unnecessary argument that ended up belonging in this thread! Move ‘er over here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 18-19 was better than 20-21. Dulles had 52.8”, 36.9”, 36.4”, and 26.5” in 13/14, 14/15, 15/16, and 18/19. All within the last decade, but yet it can’t snow like it did 20, 30, 40, or 50 years ago. Sorry I meant 18-19 not 19-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 @Jii wonder if you thinking of 18-19 when you mentioned 20-21 as a good winter. At least for Dulles, 18-19 had more than twice as much snow as 20-21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 13-13 14-15 15–16 20-21 and the one epic January for cape and i95 east. You said since 2014. Then you included 2014. I assume you meant 2019 not 2021 but you still came up 1 short even including 2014. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 36 minutes ago, Ji said: We’ve had 4-5 good winters since 2013-14. We’re just in a little slump. We didn’t get the classic modiki Nino either so that’s still in our back pocket Plus you said “we” then used a year that by your own admission was only good in a small portion of the area. And 2019 frankly was only “good” in about half. I’ve only had one above avg winter in the last 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Name the 5 good winters since 2014 What’s that recent winter you got 50 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Plus you said “we” then used a year that by your own admission was only good in a small portion of the area. And 2019 frankly was only “good” in about half. I’ve only had one above avg winter in the last 8. That’s why I said 4-5 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I’m glad I’m too young to remember what winter was like. Minus ‘09-10 I’ve got no memories of any winter before 2014, really. And even then I’ve only seen 2-3 years of total garbage - accounting for the fact I like tracking like 90% as much as the actual snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 @Ji I like you a lot…but the last 8 years have literally been the least snowy in our regions history! So you’re not going to gaslight me with a “it’s not been that bad” argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 11 minutes ago, Ji said: What’s that recent winter you got 50 inches? 20/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 11 minutes ago, Ji said: That’s why I said 4-5 lol 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: 20/21 Yes but that winter SUCKED anywhere not at 1000 feet in our region! And 2022 was good in a very small geographic part of our region. It was “ok” in a larger area but it was still below avg in about 75% of our region. I think categorizing either of those as a “good winter” is an extreme stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 The fact remains as a whole it’s been the worst 8 years in recorded history. So arguments “it’s been good or even ok” seem a bit outlandish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I’m replying to this “what winters have been good” stuff in the other thread. Sorry @WxUSAF whether I agree with every decision or not I should respect your wishes because you put in a lot of work to make this board operate and I apologize for being difficult. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 20/21Ya he has no right to complain: that one wasn’t even on my list lol and it was epic for him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Name the 5 good winters since 2014 14-15, 18-19, 20-21, 21-22 were all pretty good here. Have you forgotten some of the winners from the 80s and early 90s? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Fantastic way to end an unnecessary argument that ended up belonging in this thread! Move ‘er over here. Doesn’t have to be an argument if @snowfan stops making this same BS complaint every time I make legit analysts about our climo. I don’t tell him to shut up every time he says something I disagree with, and he says plenty. I just move on. Or maybe I comment that I disagree. But I never ever ever tell anyone what to talk about. He can F off with that BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 The fact remains as a whole it’s been the worst 8 years in recorded history. So arguments “it’s been good or even ok” seem a bit outlandish. Yes but 09-10 to 15-16 was probably best stretch we’ve ever had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Yes but that winter SUCKED anywhere not at 1000 feet in our region! And 2022 was good in a very small geographic part of our region. It was “ok” in a larger area but it was still below avg in about 75% of our region. I think categorizing either of those as a “good winter” is an extreme stretch. 20-21 was very active. We were chasing all winter. Had so many 32 and rain events from what I remember. Winchester Hagerstown and you cleaned up. I’ll take my chances with that kind of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Doesn’t have to be an argument if @snowfan stops making this same BS complaint every time I make legit analysts about our climo. I don’t tell him to shut up every time he says something I disagree with, and he says plenty. I just move on. Or maybe I comment that I disagree. But I never ever ever tell anyone what to talk about. He can F off with that BS. Dude - we will never see eye to eye on the thing that seems to be most important to you…..I don’t think you’re always right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Ya he has no right to complain: that one wasn’t even on my list lol and it was epic for him 2021 was good here locally because I got very lucky. I’d never say WE had a good winter. It was bad for 90% in here. 2022 was good for some but bad for 75% of the region. 2019 was good for a stripe down the middle through IAD and DCA but bad for Baltimore north and south of manassas. Again as a whole it’s been the least snowy 8 years ever so how are you taking the “it’s fine” side??? I didn’t complain,I made analysis of a specific storm and phenomenon. Which this weird anecdotal list of snowy years has nothing to do with. Name the snowstorm we got in any of those years that came in a warm pattern from a perfect track wave? All those storms had a decently cold airmass in place or coming as the wave passed. So this is a bait and switch argument anyways. I shouldn’t have fallen for it as long as I did. 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 14-15, 18-19, 20-21, 21-22 were all pretty good here. Have you forgotten some of the winners from the 80s and early 90s? Pretty good at a specific location I’ll give you. He said “we” and good. Ugh. This is silly. It’s been the least snowy 8 years at all 3 of our regions official recording sites. How do you argue it’s been ok within that fact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 11 minutes ago, snowfan said: Dude - we will never see eye to eye on the thing that seems to be most important to you…..I don’t think you’re always right. I don’t care that wasn’t my point. Don’t tell me what or how to talk about the weather. If you don’t like it too bad. Plenty of people say shit I don’t like on here and I don’t try to suppress it or squash their right to say it. I might argue the point but have never said “don’t talk about that”. If you can’t handle it put me on ignore and move on with your life like a grown ass adult and stop this childish passive aggressive attempt to stop conversations you don’t like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Pretty good at a specific location I’ll give you. He said “we” and good. Ugh. This is silly. It’s been the least snowy 8 years at all 3 of our regions official recording sites. How do you argue it’s been ok within that fact? If you had a good winter than I had a good winter because 90% of my winter enjoyment is tracking and digital. The actual event is so short and stressful that it’s not that enjoyable unless we are performing or over performing. And post storm is super depressing. I’m wired a bit different I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, CAPE said: You keep doing this. Now isn't then. Who exactly are you trying to convince? That is a hell of a good question! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 If you had a good winter than I had a good winter because 90% of my winter enjoyment is tracking and digital. The actual event is so short and stressful that it’s not that enjoyable unless we are performing or over performing. And post storm is super depressing. I’m wired a bit different I guess So 2013-14…14-15 15-16 19-20 20-21 for you and 21-22 for cape….thats 6 years with people from thjs subpage enjoying a great stretch of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now