WEATHER53 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 35 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I looked 3 pages back to now, and found nothing of substance from your posts except “don’t trust day 15 models” Maybe I missed it, or maybe I didn’t dig deep enough. But if you really want to foster change in this forum in terms of how to do seasonal forecasting, don’t send us digging for that information. We don’t have time for that. Make a standalone thread and link to it instead. Yeah thanks for being interested and we do well but it’s there over last several days i posed questions looking into why clippers snd Miller As have become much rarer. I brought up how good cold air masses dive in and out in 24 hours and don’t stay 2-2.5 days like when it snowed more . I’ve stated that since gas stoves and cow farts have created much hand wringing, how about outside the box like volcanoes, earth quakes , tsunamis lave flow including below sea , ice melt, on and on. Those things slap Mother Nature and the entire Earth way more than puny humans. I’m not just “complaining” (fact recognition really) . Now, some of my questions may not be pertinent but rather than bombastically model hug, I pose them. There have always been ardent model huggers here and 1 or 2 who feel like they run the place. We’ve had them before. I hope this answers part of the questions that you legitimately asked about, Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 The 4 pages before this one has approximately 120 responses. One guy has 39 You all can be the judge of what that translates into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 34 minutes ago, uncletim said: I think this is what W53 refers to. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 I haven't quite given up on the time frame over the next few days that I outlined before. It looks bad now. But the models are rapidly changing locally. You already have a Blue Norther level cold front charging east, with St. Louis set to drop something like 65 degrees in 12 hours. NAM has snow around St. Louis after they hit 86. I doubt the solution further east is resolved well just yet. Each new run has some kind of fluky Southern snow, either Atlanta, Nashville, Little Rock, etc. I guess my premise is if someone that far south gets snow, someone in the Northeast will too - but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 @WEATHER53 It’s hard to have a productive dialogue or any back and forth with you. You pose questions then ignore when someone responds and bull ahead asking it again and again. Just yesterday you asked about why we don’t discuss clippers and I replied and said we have had that discussion lately and even summarized it and then you just ask again. You get frustrated and act agitated when someone challenges you and instead of defending your position and having a productive exchange with them and offering evidence you often get belligerent. You keep railing about model hugging but this thread has mostly been about long range forecasting which is 90% analog based. We’ve been discussing indexes we use in identifying analogs like the PDO and enso but you keep going on this crusade about models. There are like 5 seasonal forecast threads posted in here including mine and I don’t think any of them cited models as a major part of those forecasts. We look at the super long range models FOR FUN but no one bases their monthly or seasonal forecasts on them when we know they have almost no skill at all! I asked you how to improve long range and your first suggestion was “don’t focus on 7+” ok how do I make a seasonal long range forecast and not focus on past 7 days? That’s not helpful. I’ve been trying hard to give you the benefit of the doubt and have a dialogue with you but you don’t seem to want that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Take a break. Exhale. Realize others are entitled to some space here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Take a break. Exhale. Realize others are entitled to some space here. Anyone can post anytime they want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anyone can post anytime they want Just can’t and it’s been very evident for a while to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Just can’t and it’s been very evident for a while to all I honestly tried. It’s clear you don’t want a productive dialogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Now that we have established that @psuhoffman is a stalker, I propose we just start a PDO watch, sort of like how Nightline started specifically to follow the Iran hostage crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Beyond two or three days, even the world's best forecasts are still speculative, and beyond a week, they are worthless. Such is the paradox that is chaos. If you have control issues, weather might not be the best hobby for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 I strongly believe the lack of a modoki nino killed our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 3 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I strongly believe the lack of a modoki nino killed our winter. the nino actually became more modoki than expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 the nino actually became more modoki than expected...lol most on Twitter are blaming the strong east based nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 It was basin wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 9 hours ago, Ji said: lol most on Twitter are blaming the strong east based nino that place is awful 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: It was basin wide definitely, I was just referencing that by the raw numbers when I peeked at the different enso region numericals and the modoki index, which I know is imperfect, by the raw numbers it ended up slightly more central pac based than the projections back in November that I saw. I don't think that was why we failed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 I wish I had better understanding of the dynamics involved. Many times, we had bad luck! At times the temps were a few degrees off. The weird way the Nino activity worked this year was reminiscent of Nina at times. When we were really wet, the cold was not cold enough or not available at all. Lack of Negative NAO combined with the PNA pattern were obvious issues. I mean we know the reality of what transpired, but, as Bob noted, maybe we just got unlucky. If we had a few big systems hit when it was cold, it would have been good. NA snow cover shows it was not just a local issue! When the continent is low on snow cover, we should know we are going to be even more unlucky. I think there were many compounding issues. The additional obvious trend of the boundary being very warm the last several years is no help! I think the warm Atlantic and even the great lakes do not help us when we are marginal, but that maybe just chicken and egg discussion. What also sucked was the poor model outlooks that were usually false and ended up failing miserably! I will try and read the summary of all the pages in this thread, but I so appreciate the time and energy many put into pattern recognition and other factors. The passion and input are so well appreciated. The squabbling and frustration are painful, but, if we can agree that we are all trying to understand and grow in knowledge, it would be good. Personal attacks and stupid comments just are no fun. Emotion and pride make it worse, especially ignorant rants with limited support. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 I'm smoothing over a lot of months, but in my mind we've been through a never-ending torch since spring 2010, with just two pauses: a brief one in winter 2017/18, and a longer 15-month period from January 2014 through March 2015. That 15-month period impresses me the most nowadays, it's like something from over a century ago. How did we manage that amidst the secular warming trend? Could we ever do it again, I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 12 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I'm smoothing over a lot of months, but in my mind we've been through a never-ending torch since spring 2010, with just two pauses: a brief one in winter 2017/18, and a longer 15-month period from January 2014 through March 2015. That 15-month period impresses me the most nowadays, it's like something from over a century ago. How did we manage that amidst the secular warming trend? Could we ever do it again, I wonder? Even with 2014-2015 DC is averaging the same climo wrt temps and snowfall as central NC since 2010. It's averaging the same climo as SC since 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 19 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I'm smoothing over a lot of months, but in my mind we've been through a never-ending torch since spring 2010, with just two pauses: a brief one in winter 2017/18, and a longer 15-month period from January 2014 through March 2015. That 15-month period impresses me the most nowadays, it's like something from over a century ago. How did we manage that amidst the secular warming trend? Could we ever do it again, I wonder? However, 2011 was actually cold, we just got miller b'd a few times on all the big storms. 2012-2013 was a torch here but legit COLD out west...I dont mean cold like the last 8 years where its just "colder" but legit cold. So for our specific location on the means you're right its been mostly a snowless torch since 2010 with just a short interlude...but if you pull back its been since the last super nino in 2016 that this "warm all over at our latitude" has been a troubling issue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: 2012-2013 was a torch here but legit COLD out west I could have sworn that 2012-2013 was a Pac Puke year. I seem to remember that being the year I learned about the joys of the Alaska vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 32 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I could have sworn that 2012-2013 was a Pac Puke year. I seem to remember that being the year I learned about the joys of the Alaska vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was the year SNE got Nemo. I hope one day I can experience what they did under that >50dbz death band. Or I can just go to the Sierras. Or to Buffalo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That was the year SNE got Nemo. I hope one day I can experience what they did under that >50dbz death band. Or I can just go to the Sierras. Or to Buffalo I was in that band... one of many storms I've chased over the years. Helped someone driving some 80s oldsmobile near Yale who had no business being on the roads get unstuck twice only to watch him immediate drive into the next snow drift lol. Had to dig myself off the highway in New Haven because none of the exits were plowed yet. Was stuck there for a couple days. But...I actually didn't find the band itself all that impressive. It was very wet, and windy, and while it was snowing incredibly hard it didn't look as aesthetically pleasing as some other heave snow events I've witnessed. The heaviest sustained snow I've ever experienced still remains the first few hours of the Feb 10 2010 storm here...not the CCB the following day but that WAA band that set up the night before and was mostly a mix down near DC and Baltimore...we had this crazy convective band sitting over us here for 3 hours and got about a foot of snow from it. But it was not windy and just cold enough so it was HUGE flakes and looked even harder then it was...not that 3-4" an hour wasn't heavy snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was in that band... one of many storms I've chased over the years. Helped someone driving some 80s oldsmobile near Yale who had no business being on the roads get unstuck twice only to watch him immediate drive into the next snow drift lol. Had to dig myself off the highway in New Haven because none of the exits were plowed yet. Was stuck there for a couple days. But...I actually didn't find the band itself all that impressive. It was very wet, and windy, and while it was snowing incredibly hard it didn't look as aesthetically pleasing as some other heave snow events I've witnessed. The heaviest sustained snow I've ever experienced still remains the first few hours of the Feb 10 2010 storm here...not the CCB the following day but that WAA band that set up the night before and was mostly a mix down near DC and Baltimore...we had this crazy convective band sitting over us here for 3 hours and got about a foot of snow from it. But it was not windy and just cold enough so it was HUGE flakes and looked even harder then it was...not that 3-4" an hour wasn't heavy snow. Interesting. I did see someone in the CT forum complaining that the snow under the death band was heavily rimed. He still got 40 inches. Btw, I was in one of the Buffalo LES events back in Dec 2001, one place got over 80" but where I was we "only" got 30-36". Kinda wild to see it go from 3 feet to barely an inch in just 15 minutes driving on I-90 east towards Rochester. The rest of the winter was crap, even up in Rochester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I was looking around for that easy-to-use NCEP reanalysis site that you use. You gave me the link to it one time but I have lost it. Can you give it again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Now that you mention it, I think it was 2011-12 that as the Pac Puke winter (one of many in the future I am afraid). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 41 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I was looking around for that easy-to-use NCEP reanalysis site that you use. You gave me the link to it one time but I have lost it. Can you give it again? Daily https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ monthly https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 @psuhoffman I was just thinking that last year, CA mountains received record snowfall during a La Nina year, and now they are again getting record snowfall during an El Nino year. ENSO doesn’t seem to matter. I think that gives your posts about opposite pacific configurations giving the same western trough eastern ridge more validity than people seem to be giving it. I don’t know if this is caused by CC, or just part of a cycle. We used to have a persistent western ridge eastern trough for years while I was growing up here, and I thought that was a permanent fixture of north american climate. The opposite seems to be happening now, which makes me think it is more cyclical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 This was the warmest winter on record for the contiguous USA: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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