What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

A broke  tool rarely fixes a broke tool 

we have plenty of tools 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The pattern has been more zonal, vs major troughs.. now, the -PNA that we have seen since 1998 and then 3x more since 2016 is a real anomaly, and not a product of global warming. 

I hope you're right...

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here is what I accidentaly posted in the long range thread.. I left it there because PSUhoffman replied quoting it. 

I think the reason for less clippers and Miller A's is lack of +PNA, although even when that pattern is present, those two storm types are happening about 30% less of the time.

Basically.. I don't have a good answer for you. The pattern has been more zonal, vs major troughs.. now, the -PNA that we have seen since 1998 and then 3x more since 2016 is a real anomaly, and not a product of global warming. 

Wouldn’t the expanded Hadley cell explain. If the jet is shifted north in the pacific the compression of the flow between the subtropical, polar, and arctic jets in the pacific speeds them up.  Its also shifting the NS north.  Add in the -pdo Nina base state that puts a ridge in the east more often. That’s a bad combo for getting a trough deep enough to get a clipper here. Doesn’t seem like a mystery to me. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I hope you're right...

 

I agree that the PDO is a cyclical issue and not CC. We’ve had PDO cycles like this before in the 50s and early 70s and they both sucked too, relative to those periods base state.  But some of the other factors like the MC forcing and expanded circulation and north shift in the jet I’m more skeptical. Some of that seems a logical common sense effect of warming. But what do I know. We had an argument in here 2 nights ago that maybe the last 8 years were actually snowy. I mean the actual data says it was the least snowy period ever. But so what, apparently that is debatable. 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the jet is shifted north in the pacific the compression of the flow between the subtropical, polar, and arctic jets in the pacific speeds them up.  Its also shifting the NS north.

That would make sense to me if the arctic cold pool was "standing its ground" as it were, but since the high latitudes are warming faster, I would expect arctic/polar jets to retract faster then than the STJ, thus lessening the latitudinal temperature gradient and leading to weakening of the jets.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Do you find that unexpected or surprising?

Me, no. But some in here think warming is debatable, somehow thermometers are subjective tools in their reality, so it’s worth pointing it out. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

That would make sense to me if the arctic cold pool was "standing its ground" as it were, but since the high latitudes are warming faster, I would expect arctic/polar jets to retract faster then than the STJ, thus lessening the latitudinal temperature gradient and leading to weakening of the jets.  

Except the atmosphere is warming from the ground up which actually increases the gradient vertically which can increase the jet and interfere with blocking.  And it’s not a 1:1 thing. The compression of the jets imo outweighs the warming of the polar vortex. It might be a weaker vortex but if it has a screaming zonal jet around it it’s not going to buckle and that will artificially enhance it and offset the warming. 

[Maestrobjwa]

19 hours ago, Ji said:

There will probably be a few tracking windows next winter

I'll bet not a one will yield more than 3 inches. And that maybe a couple threats worth. But, I'd welcome some December snow even if it's just scenery 

P.S. I'll take the bet even further: I'll bet somebody $100 that BWI does not see a verified WSW until at least 2026.

[cbmclean]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Me, no. But some in here think warming is debatable, somehow thermometers are subjective tools in their reality, so it’s worth pointing it out. 

Meh, you might care too much about what they think.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'll bet not a one will yield more than 3 inches. And that maybe a couple threats worth. But, I'd welcome some December snow even if it's just scenery 

P.S. I'll take the bet even further: I'll bet somebody $100 that BWI does not see a verified WSW until at least 2026.

2027 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Meh, you might care too much about what they think.

My motivation isn’t caring what they think…

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

2027 

Lol Now see two years was my first thought too, but I was trying to leave room for the off chance the Nina won't double-dip...but I mean don't they all do that these days?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Meh, you might care too much about what they think.

When I was in competitive debate i hated when it went to the judges with any doubt. It was more satisfying when I left the opposition so completely defeated that they were an emotionally unstable train wreck either literally crying or screaming in incoherent rage and the only question was how lopsided the ballot would be.  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Now see two years was my first thought too, but I was trying to leave room for the off chance the Nina won't double-dip...but I mean don't they all do that these days?

I mean we could get a freak snowstorm next year.  Nothing is 100% in this game. But if you forced me to bet money I’d go 4 years before 2. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Wouldn’t the expanded Hadley cell explain. If the jet is shifted north in the pacific the compression of the flow between the subtropical, polar, and arctic jets in the pacific speeds them up.  Its also shifting the NS north.  Add in the -pdo Nina base state that puts a ridge in the east more often. That’s a bad combo for getting a trough deep enough to get a clipper here. Doesn’t seem like a mystery to me. 

The thing about the expanded Hadley Cell is, what's causing it? For the Hadley cell to expand, another cell has to contract. You could say that the +AMO and -PDO favor more mid-latitude High pressures. I also think it could come from more La Nina patterns that we have seen (almost 2:1), since sunspots started quieting down in the 1990s? 

In global warming, the poles are hit the hardest, but it seems like a La Nina pattern to me. That doesn't mean general warming still isn't occurring.. it is, and actually, almost exponentially. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

When I look at this I think warm. It’s definitely not ideal. But I don’t think 3rd warmest winter ever across the US!  Warm yes. Not close to warmest ever. 

The crazy thing about this map and us being the 3rd warmest is, it looks like it's a -AO pattern! It was once theorized that AO was our #1 pattern for warm and cold, but there have been some warm -AO's the last few Winters.. I think the key these days is more on the Pacific side.  The circulation between the Poles and the mid-latitudes seems to have quieted down some.. it's more about having more low pressures around the Earth at your latitude. 

[pazzo83]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+EPO/+WPO floods the surface CONUS with warm air. The number 2 on record, I think? 01-02, had a similar pattern. 

https://ibb.co/VLCJDVG

We are also shattering previous records for global temperature, the chart is starting to move more exponential. 

 

yeah there are also heat records being blown away all over the planet right now.

[pazzo83]

Great discussion in here btw.

[Ji]

Great discussion in here btw.

Dig blu!

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[psuhoffman]

9 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

Great discussion in here btw.

Unfortunately it can be summed up with “We’re F’d” 

[IronTy]

18 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Now see two years was my first thought too, but I was trying to leave room for the off chance the Nina won't double-dip...but I mean don't they all do that these days?

Everybody seems to be really be piling into the idea that the next couple winters are going to be pretty crappy.  Given the (in)accuracy of the LR thread and people predicting epic cold as of late I would take this as a positive sign that we will surprise to the upside next winter.  

When JB finally throws in the towel and issues a blowtorch forecast for next winter then we can be assured of Nina snows.  And maybe that one really handsome twitter Met too.  He wasn't much use either.  

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Everybody seems to be really be piling into the idea that the next couple winters are going to be pretty crappy.  Given the (in)accuracy of the LR thread and people predicting epic cold as of late I would take this as a positive sign that we will surprise to the upside next winter.  

When JB finally throws in the towel and issues a blowtorch forecast for next winter then we can be assured of Nina snows.  And maybe that one really handsome twitter Met too.  He wasn't much use either.  

the biggest weenie on twitter....Mark Markgarbage just forecasted zero inches of snow for south of Maryland border next winter

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

the biggest weenie on twitter....Mark Markgarbage just forecasted zero inches of snow for south of Maryland border next winter

The Maryland border would be a weird demarcation line to try to predict snow off.  Just for the stupidity of that boundary he should be discounted.  

[psuhoffman]

Have to wait and see what the PDO looks like next fall. 

[WEATHER53]

Most of the references to “our problems” are index related unproven theories offered up to “explain” why forecasting methods Are Not Working

Start researching  and implementing different methods of approach instead of model hugging as if we are Lost without them.  I’ve made three very detailed snd specific and different suggestions over last 4/5 days and  the responses are general chastisement and model clinging. 
I mean let’s hear from some other than the same 1/2 lengthy responders.

Yes or No answers only to the below. 

1.Do you think models were effective in predicting or assisting in prediction of our winter weather 2023-24

2.Do you have a general satisfaction with them during your.time of involvement with 

 

But….but…buts means No 

[Terpeast]

28 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’ve made three very detailed snd specific and different suggestions

What were they?

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

4 hours ago, IronTy said:

Everybody seems to be really be piling into the idea that the next couple winters are going to be pretty crappy.  Given the (in)accuracy of the LR thread and people predicting epic cold as of late I would take this as a positive sign that we will surprise to the upside next winter.  

When JB finally throws in the towel and issues a blowtorch forecast for next winter then we can be assured of Nina snows.  And maybe that one really handsome twitter Met too.  He wasn't much use either.  

If next year goes cold and snowy then it would really prove my point about ENSO being overrated. I still think we’re screwed, but I might play contrarian in next year’s snowfall contest just for fun.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

What were they?

 

Couple pages back. I’m not in here constantly so the info won’t always be on same page 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Couple pages back. I’m not in here constantly so the info won’t always be on same page 

I looked 3 pages back to now, and found nothing of substance from your posts except “don’t trust day 15 models”

Maybe I missed it, or maybe I didn’t dig deep enough. But if you really want to foster change in this forum in terms of how to do seasonal forecasting, don’t send us digging for that information. We don’t have time for that. Make a standalone thread and link to it instead. 

[uncletim]

On 2/20/2024 at 1:52 PM, WEATHER53 said:

See I’ve provided  that about 5 times and even in last 36-48 hours after the most recent 6-120 hour bust but you all won’t read it. You flare up instead almost as if addicted 

SO For one last time 

Ditch the 7+ . A lot of extended weather is corrupted for agricultural and oil futures advisements

Stop looking at weather through a microscope. It does not enhance the resolution but rather blurs it. 5 miles by 5 miles is more than enough of a close up, really 10x10.  The closer up you zoom that more the errors rapidly multiply..

Go with less calculus and more AI stipulated analog composition 

Begin to consider that earthquakes,volcanoes and huge tidal waves actually may have shifted things in some way.  Lord knows plenty buy  into gas stoves and cow farts as our ruination and the things I mentioned are 20,000X stoves and cows. 
 

if one is wedded to all is just fine now then sally forth. I recognize that to not be true and yes I say so and it bothers the huggers real bad but I have had and  do right now have my suggestions for alternatives 

 I’m not the genius who invented models so maybe go to some other real smart hands on the controls guys who actually want a better forecasting science 

 

 

I think this is what W53 refers to.