psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 4 minutes ago, Ji said: If you had a good winter than I had a good winter because 90% of my winter enjoyment is tracking and digital. The actual event is so short and stressful that it’s not that enjoyable unless we are performing or over performing. And post storm is super depressing. I’m wired a bit different I guess Yea I got 50” in 2021. So what. That isn’t even an anomaly here. I Avg 40”. Or I used too lol. That’s like DC getting 17” in a winter. It’s the same departure from avg! A 50” winter happens every few years here. That isn’t the same feat it is for DC or Baltimore when that’s a once a decade thing. I’ve had 7 below avg years around that and I’m currently in the longest stretch without an 8” snow here ever going back to 1942 when reliable records started in this area. And why are you trying to rope me into defending arguments I never even made. When did I say it hadn’t snowed at all recently? When did I say we’ve had no good winters at all recently. I’ve made 2 arguments lately. It’s snowing less partly because more marginal temp storms are rain now than in the past. And that it’s been the worst 8 years ever for snow. Nothing you’re saying refutes either of those arguments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 28 minutes ago, Ji said: 20-21 was very active. We were chasing all winter. Had so many 32 and rain events from what I remember. Winchester Hagerstown and you cleaned up. I’ll take my chances with that kind of winter JFC you just proved my whole point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Btw…how do you average 20 more inches of snow more than me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Btw…how do you average 20 more inches of snow more than me? I can see one year….but average? I don’t think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 JFC you just proved my whole point I meant sleet. I had a ton of sleet that winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 JFC you just proved my whole point I’m actually not trying to argue lol. We are in a very poor stretch after coming off an epic stretch. So it just sounds like we are in a rotten cycle but we’ll get good again. I promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 17 minutes ago, Ji said: I can see one year….but average? I don’t think so You’re east of a ridge in a down sloping situation. I’m on top of the highest point in the region. I’m north of you. I’m northeast which matters because I can get into later developing storms. Miller Bs aren’t as bad here. Yea they aren’t NYC good but…You got like 3” from Jan 2005 my area got 7”. That may not seem huge but it happens over and over. Someone’s it is huge. Feb 1978 your area got 2” my area got 16”. Also I’m on the first ridge so with an east wind in a coastal the upslope enhancement is insane. And being northeast helps me with the downslope zone east of the blue ridge. With a SWFE you’re in the dead zone. By me those systems redevelop some. And my elevation helps me with every marginal surface temp situation. Lastly I don’t avg 20” more than you because you don’t avg 20”. You’re closer to 23” so I average like 17” more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m actually not trying to argue lol. We are in a very poor stretch after coming off an epic stretch. So it just sounds like we are in a rotten cycle but we’ll get good again. I promise It’s ok. Our debates are amicable. I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. Actually I do think we get more snow once the pdo flips. I just thing we’ve warmed too much to overcome a -pdo anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 47 minutes ago, stormy said: That is a hell of a good question! They know who they are, that’s why they bitch and moan whenever I say it! @CAPE Maybe I’m not trying to convince them. Maybe I’m just trying to throw indisputable irrevocable proof that they’re wrong in their face! And maybe they don’t like that which is why they throw a hissy fit to try to force the mods to shut down the conversation. They can’t argue the evidence so they try to stop it from being shown. They have the right to be ignorant. And I have the right to throw the proof they are wrong in their face! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Doesn’t have to be an argument if [mention=3375]snowfan[/mention] stops making this same BS complaint every time I make legit analysts about our climo. I don’t tell him to shut up every time he says something I disagree with, and he says plenty. I just move on. Or maybe I comment that I disagree. But I never ever ever tell anyone what to talk about. He can F off with that BS. I think you know I think you are right on this debate…. And you have every right imo to post in the LR thread that a storm might’ve worked 5/10/15/20/50 years ago… that interests me greatly and I know it does others. But when someone says it doesn’t matter, there’s no analog, every storm is different and misses the essence of what you are saying, it takes two to tango and someone should just drop it and “lose” the argument, I guess is my take. I’m bad at doing that. Just ask my girlfriend. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 14-15, 18-19, 20-21, 21-22 were all pretty good here. Have you forgotten some of the winners from the 80s and early 90s? My mom still lived in Winchester during those years so I paid attention and I think at least 3 of those winters were 30 plus inches around Winchester is that about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 It seems like it hurts people’s feelings that it’s warmer. And that’s why it cant be spoken of...That’s ok. It hurts my feelings too. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Seems weird to analyze weather without factoring in temperature trends. But to each his own. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Name the 5 good winters since 2014 BC 1888, 1899, 1922, 1960, 2010 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Since 2014 only 2016 has been a good winter in the immediate Baltimore metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 7 hours ago, notvirga! said: My mom still lived in Winchester during those years so I paid attention and I think at least 3 of those winters were 30 plus inches around Winchester is that about right? Yes, if not more than 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I’m not in Winchester, but in my yard 5 of the past 11 seasons were >30” 2013-14: 52.4” 2014-15: 36.7” 2015-16: 40.8” 2018-19: 37.0” 2020-21: 31.6” long-term average is 26.5” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 7 hours ago, paulythegun said: Seems weird to analyze weather without factoring in temperature trends. But to each his own. I love how our “science based” board is actively hostile to the science they don’t like cause of whatever reasons. Telling psu to shut up won’t change the outcome it just pushes away one of our best posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 All these people in higher elevation locations posting how their snow has been better than the majority of this region only proves my point more because the boundary layer is warming faster. Higher elevations are as of yet less affected by what I was talking about. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Guys, all you all need to do is get solar panels, electric vehicles, stop supporting cow farts... if everyone in this Mid Atlantic group does that, maybe some of those borderline snowstorms PSU always points out will fall as snow! Come on guys, get to it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 5 minutes ago, Wxdood said: Guys, all you all need to do is get solar panels, electric vehicles, stop supporting cow farts... if everyone in this Mid Atlantic group does that, maybe some of those borderline snowstorms PSU always points out will fall as snow! Come on guys, get to it! discussing how the fact it’s warmer is affecting storms is topical and belongs in here. But then 5 people complain and fill the thread with arguments about it. Then sarcastic posts like this pop up. And the purpose is to F up the thread so bad every time this topic comes up to force the MODS to step in and squash it. It’s not cute or clever. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I love how our “science based” board is actively hostile to the science they don’t like cause of whatever reasons. Telling psu to shut up won’t change the outcome it just pushes away one of our best posters Stop being dramatic. This is not what's happening here. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 11 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m glad I’m too young to remember what winter was like. Minus ‘09-10 I’ve got no memories of any winter before 2014, really. And even then I’ve only seen 2-3 years of total garbage - accounting for the fact I like tracking like 90% as much as the actual snowfall I’m pretty sure we’re the youngest two here and I’m just jealous you at least remember 09-10, personally I have no real memories besides some weak ones of what I assume is 13-14/14-15. Then I was sick and in 3rd grade for 2016 so I have no great memories of it too. I just wanted to have one good hecs or mecs (at this point I’d take a secs) before I go off to college and I couldn’t even get that… that said my winter expectations have been shaped from 2017-2024 and for me what makes a good winter is we cover/coat the grass once (which is rlly sad if you think about it) but that’s all I’ve come to expect at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I’m pretty sure we’re the youngest two here and I’m just jealous you at least remember 09-10, personally I have no real memories besides some weak ones of what I assume is 13-14/14-15. Then I was sick and in 3rd grade for 2016 so I have no great memories of it too. I just wanted to have one good hecs or mecs (at this point I’d take a secs) before I go off to college and I couldn’t even get that… that said my winter expectations have been shaped from 2017-2024 and for me what makes a good winter is we cover/coat the grass once (which is rlly sad if you think about it) but that’s all I’ve come to expect at this point. Yep… I’ve come to appreciate how much 2” really is. Pretty appreciable amount when you think about it. @ravensrule I still think we are due for our BECS. One day we’ll get a dynamic cooling monster just soaking in that Gulf Stream energy with juuust enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 10 hours ago, Ji said: If you had a good winter than I had a good winter because 90% of my winter enjoyment is tracking and digital. The actual event is so short and stressful that it’s not that enjoyable unless we are performing or over performing. And post storm is super depressing. I’m wired a bit different I guess You're definitely weird but that's ok. My first thought is to give you some wisdom filled response about living in the moment and being grateful for the positive things in your life. Then I thought about how you probably have heard that kinda stuff your entire life. We all find joy in our own little weird way. Just because you don't think like I do, doesn't mean I need to help you think differently. A lot of people think im weird for wondering around smoking joints in the woods all day while its snowing. I hope you get lots of digital blue and exciting PBP's in your future. Stay weird, my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 6 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: We spent weeks and weeks posting tons of maps and analysis about a late Feb “epic” pattern that was totally fictional. Not only was it fictional; but we are literally in the 50’s and 60’s with rain into Canada. I’m just not seeing any science behind any of this. I am also not seeing much “ Mea culpa” and pause being given into how wrong it at was and learning from it to forecast better in the future. That frustrates me how Mets are just so wrong and move on like they didn’t make major mistakes.. to be fair, maybe they don’t have any good answers as to why the projected blocks vanished into thin air (literally). All we have is theories and poor LR model performance. My own theory is that the marine heat wave off Japan disrupted the wave train downstream, breaking up any attempt for the aleutian low to form and sustain itself, and also pushing the pac jet northward effectively broke up the blocks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 With a La Nina being almost a given for next winter, the only thing we can realistically root for is the N Pac high to push further poleward into Alaska for a -epo. But with less blocking, good luck getting a -nao. Winter should be a rockin’ out west, though! Start saving up for your trips, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I am the farthest thing from a scientist, but I can't say that I can fully accept the suggestion that winters in our area have become so much warmer now that the likelihood of future snowy winters is past us. I go on LWX's site and look at temperature records for the past century, expecting to see a hockey stick-like rise recently that bears that out. And all I see are mean winter temps within the same range they have remained all of that time. Yes, the last 10 winters have been mild. Not as mild overall as 1930-39, or 1995-2004. But beyond the short-term cycles, what about this data leads one to subscribe to the idea that it's become too warm in our area to snow going forward? There is a trendline dotted on the graph after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Carrying this reply into this thread. The Jan 6-7 event this year is a perfect example of what could have been a 6-12” snowstorm in our area had it not been a couple degrees too warm. A lot of cases we point at may not be clear cut, but this Jan 6-7 one is the most clear cut to me. Unforgivable and inexcusable. After seeing that one fail, I basically threw my snowfall outlook out the window right then and there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 On 2/20/2024 at 9:30 PM, DarkSharkWX said: the record -PDO not even coming close to flipping is nonetheless surprising I mean the D in that stands for decadal and it’s only been in place for a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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