What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Eh median is not out of the question then.  I'll be rooting for you!

I grade subjectively. I like big storms more than a lot of nickel and dime events. Also I have a higher bar for Ninos. So this year is kind of missing all my marks. But if I had to make an objective scale that put an avg of 2 years per decade into each grade it would be  like this numerically.  I ran the numbers a couple years ago and this would put an equal number of years into each grade  

A=49”+
B=39-48”
C=30-38” 

D=18-29”

F=under 18”

[Ji]

I really don’t understand how 96 happened in a Nina.

Nina can get really cold and once in a while they can have an active southern jet

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I really don’t understand how 96 happened in a Nina.

PDO didn’t couple with the Nina. North pacific was more Nino than Nina like.  Same way the last 2 ninos never coupled with the long wave pattern. It can happen. Why?  Who knows. Variables we can’t correctly understand yet. But you want to bet on a Nina not coupling with a strong Nina base state?  lol 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I really don’t understand how 96 happened in a Nina.

Jan 17, 18, and 22 all had big snowstorms that impacted eastern areas of the MA. 2018 also had the March storm that was a biggie for at least northern/eastern parts of our region. We are perfectly capable of getting a complete ratter regardless of ENSO state.

[fujiwara79]

3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

The 1960s might be out of reach but there was still a good amount of snows between 2013 and 2016.

20 years from now, even 2013-2016 may feel out of reach.  Especially if the oceans continue their warming trend.

We've had eight consecutive warmer-than-average winters.  Just having a winter where temperatures are average is very difficult these days.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Jan 17, 18, and 22 all had big snowstorms that impacted eastern areas of the MA. 2018 also had the March storm that was a biggie for at least northern/eastern parts of our region. We are perfectly capable of getting a complete ratter regardless of ENSO state.

Your larger point is 100 but Nina’s have a vastly different climo for 95 west and places SE of 95. I’d argue those coastal plain storms fit Nina climo. There are two types of Nina patterns. Flat pac ridge and poleward ridge. When the pac ridge is poleward it can get cold but the NS is still dominant and waves tend do phase late and be progressive. This favors coastal locations. Always has. 89, 99, 02, 06, 09, 2011, 2017, 2018, 2022 all featured at least one major coastal scraper. Some managed to clip 95. Some barely got the coast. But that’s a normal staple of a Nina. If you look at all Nina’s for example a place like Salisbury or ACY is way more likely to hit climo than say me or Baltimore. It’s why I hate them with the passion of a 1000 suns. If I lived where you do I’d be way more ambivalent about them.  If I lived in OC or ACY I’d root for them! 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Nina can get really cold and once in a while they can have an active southern jet

Not really a southern  jet like in a Nino, but during a +PNA/-EPO episode there can be a bit of a split flow and/or a wave embedded in the flow overtop the ridge and drops southward, then propagates eastward. The Jan 22 storms evolved from that type of pattern.

[cbmclean]

31 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I really don’t understand how 96 happened in a Nina.

There's quite a bit of variability in the "snow response" to ENSO.  Because I love to graph things I have made a scatter plot of ONI values vs snow at IAD.  For the ONI values I have taken the data from here:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

I have averaged the DJF and JFM values for each year to obtain the single "winter ONI" value for my plot.  I got IAD snow data here:

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

In the plot you can see the general trend for low ONIs to be lower in snow but there is still a ton of variation.  The red point is 1996.  The green point is 2010

 

[Jebman]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

24”. My avg is down to 39.5 after the last few seasons and median is about 35. 

I wanted you to get that 14 so bad.

[fujiwara79]

You know things have gotten bad when we're now thinking La Ninas aren't too bad, actually

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Not really a southern  jet like in a Nino, but during a +PNA/-EPO episode there can be a bit of a split flow and/or a wave embedded in the flow overtop the ridge and drops southward, then propagates eastward. The Jan 22 storms evolved from that type of pattern.

Yea 96 didn’t really have a strong STJ, NS waves just dug so far south due to a perfect pac and blocking that we kept getting striped.  I’m not so sure how likely that is to work anymore. Frankly that was an extreme outlier unlikely solution even in the 90s but it’s been a long time since NS waves dug south enough to amplify that much and still stay under us. It’s almost unheard of anymore. Hence those depressing stats I showed how we don’t get days with significant snow and high temps below 28 at all anymore when they once were fairly common.  
 

Before people jump down my throat no I can’t prove that it wouldn’t work. But it’s fair to speculate given the fact it doesn’t happen often or at all anymore for quite a while now. At some point it’s fair to at least question whether under the current reality if it’s still a viable realistic option. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Your larger point is 100 but Nina’s have a vastly different climo for 95 west and places SE of 95. I’d argue those coastal plain storms fit Nina climo. There are two types of Nina patterns. Flat pac ridge and poleward ridge. When the pac ridge is poleward it can get cold but the NS is still dominant and waves tend do phase late and be progressive. This favors coastal locations. Always has. 89, 99, 02, 06, 09, 2011, 2017, 2018, 2022 all featured at least one major coastal scraper. Some managed to clip 95. Some barely got the coast. But that’s a normal staple of a Nina. If you look at all Nina’s for example a place like Salisbury or ACY is way more likely to hit climo than say me or Baltimore. It’s why I hate them with the passion of a 1000 suns. If I lived where you do I’d be way more ambivalent about them.  If I lived in OC or ACY I’d root for them! 

I get it. We have had this discussion before. Just making the point to him that it isn't that unusual for big snowstorms to occur in our region during a Nina. The early Jan 22 storm was a double digit snow for some, and not a coastal scraper. It was a juiced wave tracking along the boundary and impacted all but the very northern parts of our subforum.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I wanted you to get that 14 so bad.

lol I’m fine. Ya I love snow. But I’ll survive it’s not that big a deal. And I did get 5 legit snow events that my kids got to enjoy. Although maybe 4 would have been better for my knee lol!  I also saw 2 big snows while traveling.  This wasn’t a disaster like last year.  

[CAPE]

That early Jan 22 event was THE(one and only) CAPE storm. Saw that potential when we were in the no way out, shit the effin' blinds pattern lol. That was the beginning of a pretty cold period that featured 3 snowstorms in Jan, 2 of which were focused east. Interior/northern crew got a moderate storm in Feb around the SB I believe. Pretty there was at least one other event that month that wasn't an 'eastern special'.

But yeah, I don't fear a Nina, even though my yard often ends up on the western edge of a big coastal storm.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I get it. We have had this discussion before. Just making the point to him that it isn't that unusual for big snowstorms to occur in our region during a Nina. The early Jan 22 storm was a double digit snow for some, and not a coastal scraper. It was a juiced wave tracking along the boundary and impacted all but the very northern parts of our subforum.

True and 22 was still way below climo here. There is variability with any storm but overall the further NW you go in our region the less likely to hit climo in a Nina. That’s all I was saying. I totally get why people on the coastal plain have a more favorable or at lease ambivalent view of Nina’s. 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea 96 didn’t really have a strong STJ, NS waves just dug so far south due to a perfect pac and blocking that we kept getting striped.  I’m not so sure how likely that is to work anymore. Frankly that was an extreme outlier unlikely solution even in the 90s but it’s been a long time since NS waves dug south enough to amplify that much and still stay under us. It’s almost unheard of anymore. Hence those depressing stats I showed how we don’t get days with significant snow and high temps below 28 at all anymore when they once were fairly common.  
 

Before people jump down my throat no I can’t prove that it wouldn’t work. But it’s fair to speculate given the fact it doesn’t happen often or at all anymore for quite a while now. At some point it’s fair to at least question whether under the current reality if it’s still a viable realistic option. 

Arguably this here Nino is very much Nina like. We can start with the NS dominant pattern, and the tropical forcing that can't progress east of the MC for more than a minute.

[cbmclean]

I admit I am still curious to see what a nice strong Modoki Nino could do.  I suspect I'd be disappointed but I am still curious.

 

ETA: apparently Modokis were at one time thought to be becoming more common due to Babar.  Can;t say I have seen it lately though.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/ftp/hrd/annane/DIS/Q3.pdf

[SnowenOutThere]

On 2/16/2024 at 12:52 PM, psuhoffman said:

Maybe. 2010, 2014, 2015 would maybe indicate we can get hit pretty good with a favorable pdo still.  And perhaps the wetter base state makes them more snowy. But small sample size. 
 

Howevwr there was another major temp spike post the 2016 super Nino.  No telling how that’s changed the equation. Also the pdo has become increasingly hard to predict. The cycles have become more irregular so it’s impossible to say how much longer this lasts. 

So excited for another nino boost to our climate, let’s see how high we can get this planet! 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

True and 22 was still way below climo here. There is variability with any storm but overall the further NW you go in our region the less likely to hit climo in a Nina. That’s all I was saying. I totally get why people on the coastal plain have a more favorable or at lease ambivalent view of Nina’s. 

Imo, regardless of where we specifically live(piedmont, coastal plain) at our latitude, other than maybe the western highlands, long term snowfall climo-mean/median- simply cannot be the expectation or 'bar' for a good winter anymore. 

I will enjoy a snowless winter because it provides a wonderful break from the relentless heat and humidity(and bugs) of our long, long summers. 

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So excited for another nino boost to our climate, let’s see how high we can get this planet! 

Maybe at some point we can max out the register and cause it to roll over into colds again.

[WEATHER53]

What is wrong is we are hamstrung with inefficient tools with a lot of clinging to “it’s all we got” Stop hitting those sites and maybe a message is sent. Plus now we have ninos  not being ninos .  Those examples of possible outcomes wiggled  0-10” within 24-36 hours and even with just 6 hours remaining they missed badly in total qpf  most of which saw 4-6 turn out 1-3” just  4-6 hours from onset. 

[cbmclean]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

What is wrong is we are hamstrung with inefficient tools with a lot of clinging to “it’s all we got” Stop hitting those sites and maybe a message is sent. Plus now we have ninos  not being ninos .  Those examples of possible outcomes wiggled  0-10” within 24-36 hours and even with just 6 hours remaining they missed badly in total qpf  most of which saw 4-6 turn out 1-3” just  4-6 hours from onset. 

What, in detail, is your proposed alternative to model-based forecasting?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think +PNA still works. I've seen many cold periods lately, when the PNA lines up right. The -NAO is ridging north, and even the -AO and -EPO to an extent, but the W->E flow pattern is still in effect. The global +13dm -PNA over the total last 25 years is a major anomaly, and no one should be making assessments about snow seasons being over because of that anomaly. As far as I know, it's cyclical. 

[WEATHER53]

35 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What, in detail, is your proposed alternative to model-based forecasting?

See I don’t have to have an answer for my ibservations  to be correct. Not saying you are doing this but that question is basically a model hugger deflection

if you feel status quo is sufficient then that’s just very different from my thinking.  Every occurrent snowstorm this season has been 50% higher or lower than just 24 hours in advance was depicting 

I would venture that AI is going to formulate an analogue occurrent outcome data base from last 1-25 years and get into a more current and correct manner of evaluation, assessment and forecasts. Also ditch the 7+ day stuff, enhance the short term, destroy the floppy discs. 

[Fozz]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It is what it is. No sense getting all upset. 

On top of living where I do ( anyone willing to make the commute can do what I do) as a skier I see a lot of snow each year regardless of what happens here. It helps some. 

It sure does. And after Jan 2016, which was like the ultimate W for this hobby (along with Feb 2010), I am not quite as emotionally attached to IMBY snow as I was before. It's still nice to see, but there are also so many mountains where I want to experience big storms and powder days.

These -PNA patterns we've been getting are all great opportunities to ski out west while this area gets skunked, and I encourage those who are able to take advantage of it.

[Itryatgolf70]

I don't think many thought January would be the coldest month this winter, especially considering all the mentions about February being the coldest month. This was an interesting niño for sure. 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

See I don’t have to have an answer for my ibservations  to be correct. Not saying you are doing this but that question is basically a model hugger deflection

if you feel status quo is sufficient then that’s just very different from my thinking.  Every occurrent snowstorm this season has been 50% higher or lower than just 24 hours in advance was depicting 

I would venture that AI is going to formulate an analogue occurrent outcome data base from last 1-25 years and get into a more current and correct manner of evaluation, assessment and forecasts. Also ditch the 7+ day stuff, enhance the short term, destroy the floppy discs. 

I try to be open-minded.  I agree that we probably place too much confidence in modeling in d10+.  And I understand that human knowledge can do a lot from simple analysis roll forward say to ~ day 3.  But from day 3 through day 10 I truly don't see any alternative to model-based forecasting.  If you have a different alternative to propose I would honestly like to hear you out. 

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE this simplifies the climo difference northwest to south  east across our area in a Nina. 

Odds of hitting avg snow since 2000 (13 ninas)

Me: 8%  Baltimore: 15%. ACY: 54%

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Arguably this here Nino is very much Nina like. We can start with the NS dominant pattern, and the tropical forcing that can't progress east of the MC for more than a minute.

Well in terms of our snowfall you’re totally correct. But we did have 3 juiced up perfect track STJ dominant waves and 1 hybrid where the h5 crossed just south of DC in our “money box”. But they were all too warm and just rain.  In a non Nina we don’t typically get that many stj chances. I think this year ended up a hybrid. Had the juiced up STJ but superimposed onto the Nina pac base state with associated warmer thermals. That neutralized the advantage of a Nino for our snow purposes and left it Nina like wrt snowfall. 

[AlexD1990]

[mention=1005]CAPE[/mention] this simplifies the climo difference northwest to south  east across our area in a Nina. 

Odds of hitting avg snow since 2000 (13 ninas)
Me: 8%  Baltimore: 15%. ACY: 54%

That's a eyebrow raising statistic

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