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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm


DDweatherman
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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hell of a Nino this has been lol. Ready to roll the dice with another Nina. B)

I’m tempted to have something to say about that, but after getting called out for being “too depressing”, I’ll just say that I’m soaking it all in right now :snowman:

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28 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

1.0” snow.  0.12” precip (not a ratio, some was rain).

 

Just a debacle from the global models.  

Yup - bust here too just NW of Vienna.  Right at an inch.  Driveway totally melted last night - even the stepping stones by our deck melted.  

Went out for a feeble attempt at a Jebwalk around 0200 and it was coming down nice, until the sleet started mixing in.  At that point it was over.  Big disappointment around here.  

Congrats to those who scored 4+.  

Amazing with today's computing power how most the models missed it until the retraction started a few hours from the start.

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I’m tempted to have something to say about that, but after getting called out for being “too depressing”, I’ll just say that I’m soaking it all in right now :snowman:

I’ll say it.  The fact that some of our classic ways to get snow like a -nao or a Nino have failed lately have lead at times to comments like “maybe what we need is something else”. But there is absolutely no evidence that Nina’s neutral winters or positive NAOs are becoming more snowy. We are just getting less snow because what does produce snow is working less. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

That crazy fgen zone guidance had over our area yesterday ended up pushing north and they got it. 

That fgen band was about 50 miles further north and much stronger than modeled. I saw this coming as soon as the dual band structure showed up and the north trend started. 

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I doubt this is my last snow. If so it would be the earliest other than 2020 and 2023 when it barely snowed at all all winter. But just in case I’m enjoying this one. 
 

View of the Catoctins looking west 

cMhjUE4.jpeg

looking south towards Manchester 

ia24BkN.jpeg
 

Looking southeast towards Parrs Ridge. I’m technically on Dug Hill which is the next ridge NW of Parrs. The water tower you see is the highest point on Parrs Ridge!  
YPGZcql.jpeg
 

9W0QTbV.jpeg
 

Looking northwest, through those trees there is a fire tower along the next ridge of Dug Hill that’s actually the highest point in Maryland east of the Catoctins. It’s about 50 feet higher than me. 
QE3KBDL.jpeg

zz4YV37.jpeg

cgfWZEb.jpeg

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I doubt this is my last snow. If so it would be the earliest other than 2020 and 2023 when it barely snowed at all all winter. But just in case I’m enjoying this one. 
 

View of the Catoctins looking west 

cMhjUE4.jpeg

looking south towards Manchester 

ia24BkN.jpeg
 

Looking southeast towards Parrs Ridge. I’m technically on Dug Hill which is the next ridge NW of Parrs. The water tower you see is the highest point on Parrs Ridge!  
YPGZcql.jpeg
 

9W0QTbV.jpeg
 

Looking northwest, through those trees there is a fire tower along the next ridge of Dug Hill that’s actually the highest point in Maryland east of the Catoctins. It’s about 50 feet higher than me. 
QE3KBDL.jpeg

zz4YV37.jpeg

cgfWZEb.jpeg

Great pics, it’s time to make the next storm happen. Shame modeling showed a nice back down last minute, but it’s been a big time IMBY sport this winter. I’m at 23” for the season which is one of the better #’s overall I believe, and 2 storms with 6”. Need a region wide hit sometime.

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6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

3” here, beautiful morning. What could have been, but in reality the FGEN band even over our area would have had big winners but big losers in the subsidence zone. 

Yeah many of the runs a few days ago had my area in between the bands, and with maybe 1-2” while places north and south would’ve gotten quite a bit more.

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Just now, Fozz said:

Yeah many of the runs a few days ago had my area in between the bands, and with maybe 1-2” while places north and south would’ve gotten quite a bit more.

It sucks to see it close by, esp for the northern folks that were only 30-40 miles south of it, but I can’t complain too much with a 6.25” and a 3” in the same week. 

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12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That fgen band was about 50 miles further north and much stronger than modeled. I saw this coming as soon as the dual band structure showed up and the north trend started. 

Like 3 days ago I said “we should ignore the south band and focus on the north, history says that’s where the goods will be and the south max will be disappointing”  I let my desire for us not to be shafted influence me too much yesterday. For a time the guidance kept the fgen displaced south of the arctic boundary and indicated two separate legit heavy snow bands. But things converged on a more historically typical outcome with the fgen shifting north with the better thermal gradient along the arctic boundary. I should have seen that coming. I did from 3 days then kidded myself when crunch time came. 

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Like 3 days ago I said “we should ignore the south band and focus on the north, history says that’s where the goods will be and the south max will be disappointing”  I let my desire for us not to be shafted influence me too much yesterday. For a time the guidance kept the fgen displaced south of the arctic boundary and indicated two separate legit heavy snow bands. But things converged on a more historically typical outcome with the fgen shifting north with the better thermal gradient along the arctic boundary. I should have seen that coming. I did from 3 days then kidded myself when crunch time came. 

I did the same thing.

And fgen is always further north.


.
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Just took the kid to her job at the skate rink. We have this beautiful restored bank barn in our neighborhood, with a walking path down to Ballenger Creek. The amount of snow just lining the branches and the clear path made for a put my car in park and grab the iPhone for a couple of shots. 
 

Now we just wait for the solar panel avalanche that will happen as when I drove into the garage I can see the panels heating up and the snow slipping.

IMG_0397.thumb.jpeg.ab7fb578df44a25d263c90e29dae8d36.jpeg

IMG_0398.thumb.jpeg.a6d69a44783ea468e85d2eebd4dce29a.jpeg 

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4 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Just took the kid to her job at the skate rink. We have this beautiful restored bank barn in our neighborhood, with a walking path down to Ballenger Creek. The amount of snow just lining the branches and the clear path made for a put my car in park and grab the iPhone for a couple of shots. 
 

Now we just wait for the solar panel avalanche that will happen as when I drove into the garage I can see the panels heating up and the snow slipping.

IMG_0397.thumb.jpeg.ab7fb578df44a25d263c90e29dae8d36.jpeg

IMG_0398.thumb.jpeg.a6d69a44783ea468e85d2eebd4dce29a.jpeg 

Man. That road got plowed quick. Lol. 
 

I got about 4 inches and the roads were clear when I woke up. The driveway never caved. 

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Just went sledding with my daughter. Surprisingly good and fast! Happy to have gotten just enough for it and the rest doesn’t really matter

I think I might of gotten a bit more than 2 before melting cd6e50ba2d1ec768f7f8faf186a3352a.jpg
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26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I doubt this is my last snow. If so it would be the earliest other than 2020 and 2023 when it barely snowed at all all winter. But just in case I’m enjoying this one. 
 

View of the Catoctins looking west 

cMhjUE4.jpeg

looking south towards Manchester 

ia24BkN.jpeg
 

Looking southeast towards Parrs Ridge. I’m technically on Dug Hill which is the next ridge NW of Parrs. The water tower you see is the highest point on Parrs Ridge!  
YPGZcql.jpeg
 

9W0QTbV.jpeg
 

Looking northwest, through those trees there is a fire tower along the next ridge of Dug Hill that’s actually the highest point in Maryland east of the Catoctins. It’s about 50 feet higher than me. 
QE3KBDL.jpeg

zz4YV37.jpeg

cgfWZEb.jpeg

You look like you're not very far from me...I'm over in Alesia. 

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Potato dust. *yawns*

Eh, I'm ready to chuck the models and just look out the window at this point. Another cautionary tale of getting too emotional about snow. Enjoy it when it happens and if it doesn't...go find something else to do. Weather patterns don't have joy or sadness.  Snow lovers are getting conditional (and desperate) in their demands about type of snow, duration, etc. You get what you get! Chaos rules and we've become tools.

Besides, Phil said it all at a press conference. No shadow! :raining:

image.png.9ba6352787d4703660ac2b0a88919906.png

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59 minutes ago, jayyy said:

My cousins up in central NJ ended up with 12” despite a 1-3” forecast. Fuckers.

That area from Lehigh Valley to NJ/NYC just wins over and over again. Some of those areas climo aren’t supposed to be that much better than ours either. I have an opinion on that but it involves elephants we can’t talk about lol

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