midatlanticweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 West to east moving systems with dry airmasses get that down sloping dryness! Systems like this then get more moisture as they reached the coast, but the leeward side miss some of the goods! Feels that way many times even in summer, unless the airmass is juicy, storms kind of split for me out here SW of Purcellville. The January 2 snow events did the same for me. Anyways.. ranting about MBY sitting at about 2 inches of snow less from the January storms but getting over an inch yesterday is kind of foolish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 RGEM was a move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z RGEM, FWIW, was slightly drier and a tad north compared to 6z. Still decent for a 1-3/2-4 though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z ICON also going to be slightly drier, but nudged south looking at the QPF field QPF and 10:1 snow map posted below. I did a local area zoom in, so it's total qpf through 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I'll let @stormtracker do the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I mean, I'd take the ICON without hesitation and call it a day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean, I'd take the ICON without hesitation and call it a day 90% of the sub would, it's even nice for us over here. I just want to see snow on the ground... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We will get a foot from this. The ICON is always stingy with the snow and always too low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 LWX slightly more bullish than this morning's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean, I'd take the ICON without hesitation and call it a day Same! Maybe as we get closer we juice it a bit more and get some 4-5” lollis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Do weather models take soil moisture into account? Gotta believe that wind over saturated soils has some effect on precipitable water available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Do weather models take soil moisture into account? Gotta believe that wind over saturated soils has some effect on precipitable water available. So anyone downwind of East Coast NPZ is screwed? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 So far, seems like the other 12z mods...a little drier and souther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 starts at 3z Sat...definitely drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2-4 south of FDK -Westminster like...1-3 north across to Mappy land 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 2-4 south of FDK -Westminster like...1-3 north We take... I think as long as we set our goal as 1-3, we will do fine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It's drier, but acceptable I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS much better than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, yoda said: Yeah we take for sure. 1-3” to 2-4” seems best case. At least all models have it this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 When do we start the rescue thread lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, yoda said: solidly in the dark blue on that run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Yeah we take for sure. 1-3” to 2-4” seems best case. At least all models have it this time Wait until about 1:15. That 6z euro run was a harbinger 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Wait until about 1:15. That 6z euro run was a harbinger EPS > Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: solidly in the dark blue on that run Nice little Dulles jack that run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When do we start the rescue thread lol? This is all on track. Keeps drying out until the tomorrow 18z runs. Then we make our epic last 30 hour juice up to warning level. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z CMC not really enthused still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, yoda said: 12z CMC not really enthused still It’s a little worse for our area but definitely wetter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: solidly in the dark blue on that run i need to move out of leesburg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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