gopper Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=LWX-N0Q-0-12-100-usa-rad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 That's worse than 18z.Maybe… but we’re 3 hours from go time so like who cares? Its still the snowiest model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Cue Tom Patty’s I won’t back down And if you dove off a cliff earlier this evening, this train doesn’t take tickets to ride from weather zombies. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Starting to cool again now that the QPF is moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Meso discussion from SPC, would seem to support there's issue with drier air. Mesoscale Discussion 0149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia to western New Jersey Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170333Z - 170730Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to spread east across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate snowfall continues to spread east from the upper OH River Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic based on recent regional reflectivity composites. Transient organized snow bands continue to be observed within this broader zone, resulting in visibility reductions from 1/2 to 1/4 mile and steady snowfall accumulations based on recent snow reports from the region. Favorable phasing of synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and strong isentropic and frontogenetic lift within the 925-700 mb layer, which has been driving this activity so far, is expected to persist as the system pushes towards the East Coast over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance depicts reasonably high probability in snowfall rates between 1-2 inch/hour across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (and possibly as far east as the NJ coast) through 08 UTC. Based on observed trends, this depiction seems fairly reasonable. One caveat is a lingering warm/dry layer below 850 mb sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings and noted in surface observations across northern MD, southeast PA, and into western NJ, which may limit snowfall rates in the near term. However, a combination of evaporative cooling and persistent mesoscale ascent along the warm frontal zone should support adequate low-level saturation/cooling to allow for moderate to heavy snowfall in the coming hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Meso discussion from SPC Mesoscale Discussion 0149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia to western New Jersey Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170333Z - 170730Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to spread east across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate snowfall continues to spread east from the upper OH River Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic based on recent regional reflectivity composites. Transient organized snow bands continue to be observed within this broader zone, resulting in visibility reductions from 1/2 to 1/4 mile and steady snowfall accumulations based on recent snow reports from the region. Favorable phasing of synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and strong isentropic and frontogenetic lift within the 925-700 mb layer, which has been driving this activity so far, is expected to persist as the system pushes towards the East Coast over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance depicts reasonably high probability in snowfall rates between 1-2 inch/hour across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (and possibly as far east as the NJ coast) through 08 UTC. Based on observed trends, this depiction seems fairly reasonable. One caveat is a lingering warm/dry layer below 850 mb sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings and noted in surface observations across northern MD, southeast PA, and into western NJ, which may limit snowfall rates in the near term. However, a combination of evaporative cooling and persistent mesoscale ascent along the warm frontal zone should support adequate low-level saturation/cooling to allow for moderate to heavy snowfall in the coming hours. painful reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 First flakes let's go! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: Cue Tom Petty’s I won’t back down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: First flakes let's go! Lies. 3z HRRR says you don't see anything until after midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: First flakes let's go! Yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Flurries in Smithsburg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 LMAO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 pm 38/27 0-5” really don’t matter as long as you are alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Coming down nicely now. Beautiful Jebwalk just now. Love the sound of snow bouncing off of my coat. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: LMAO If this fails, future posting of the HRRR should lead to automatic bans from the Board 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Best frontogenesis is in the favored spots. Hope it tick south just a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Approaching 2”, current rates are 1”+/hr. The HRRR is garbage and doesn’t come close to reflecting ground truth right now. 25.1/24 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 40/19 Got a good feeling about this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Best frontogenesis is in the favored spots. Hope it tick south just a touch. came by to post that so I'll post this instead: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 See that dryslot west of DC around the VA/WV border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Snow has commenced in Round Hill. 38/21 On a side note…prayers to the firefighters in Loudoun County tonight. God bless them. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: See that dryslot west of DC around the VA/WV border? The radar hallucinations have begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Round Hill WX said: Snow has commenced in Round Hill. 38/21 On a side note…prayers to the firefighters in Loudoun County tonight. God bless them. Was just reading about that. Absolutely horrific. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: Snow has commenced in Round Hill. 38/21 On a side note…prayers to the firefighters in Loudoun County tonight. God bless them. Sources say they are all accounted for and will be alright 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, yoda said: Sources say they are all accounted for and will be alright Unfortunately no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Round Hill WX said: Unfortunately no. Thats what wusa9.com is reporting fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 winchester abt to get pummeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Light snow falling here. Big flakes. 36/24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Anyway, hoping for 1-2" of snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, WVclimo said: Light snow falling here. Big flakes. 36/24. Once the flurries turned into light snow, the dendrites were immediate which was great to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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