konksw Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Man can we quit it with the HRRR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: They are drying up, but you guys are acting like they showed 6-10" a few days ago. No, but when nws had to make decisions based 12z guidance of gfs and NAM and 6z euro earlier today the blend of what NWS weights most GFS EURO 3kNAM was showing ~.5 qpf across the area and most importantly qpf was trending up at that time, all 3 were showing a good slp track and crazy insane fgen over the area and a thermal profile conducive to optimal dendritic growth and good ratios. It may have been a little ambitious but found with 3-5 and 5-8 across the area at that time wasn’t crazy given a mean qpf of .5, and up trend, and potential for decent ratios. I kind of doubt they would have gone so ambitious had they known what the 18z guidance would look like. But now they have to decide whether to lower based on off hour runs and CAMs which are notoriously unreliable or let the forecast ride despite some new evidence suggesting they are a bit liberal on snow. You were misrepresenting things to make it seem like guidance never supported what they have and I disagree. When they released it at the time I thought it was a but high, they went over my forecast numbers, but not by a lot and given trends at that time it was reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, WesternFringe said: It’s not working out very well. Weenies be cliff diving and stuff The short duration of the storm makes it a likely challenge for the DC crew when we're starting out so warm. For those outside the beltway, nobody should be cliff diving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 35.8/26.2 right now in Colesville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Radar looks great. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 For the record I’m not cliff jumping. I love to analyze this stuff. I’m curious why the CAMs are off on a tangent so close to game time. But I’ve noted they do this sometimes and the radar looks great. But I’m always open minded to all possibilities. Maybe they’re right. Doubt it but I’ve seen weirder things! It’s chips fall time. But I like to analyze all these situations. They are learning experiences. We will have another similar wave scenario to this someday in the future and the outcome here along with the performance of these guidance tools will be used to help me make a better forecast in the future. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 41/24 with a slight north trend out of the south in NE DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 If this underperforms should there be a post mortem what went wrong write up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 About 45 minutes of random flurries here and there. But picking up now with light snow and dendrites already falling - poses well for snow growth for everyone. Down to 29.8. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 If this underperforms should there be a post mortem what went wrong write up?What counts as underperforming? The precip max shifted 80 miles north in the past 24 hours so what baseline do we even use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Mesoscale Discussion 0148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...The Upper Ohio River Valley into the central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170040Z - 170445Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected to spread east across the upper Ohio River Valley into the central Appalachians through the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, a semi-persistent band of moderate to heavy snow has shifted east across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley. Surface observations and web cams under this band have shown visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile at times, indicative of moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Snowfall reports over the past 1-3 hours support this idea with multiple reports of 3-5 inch snowfall totals since early afternoon. Recent upper-air analyses continue to show favorable overlap of broad synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching low-amplitude upper wave with a more focused zone of mesoscale ascent driven by a plume of warm advection and frontogenesis within the 925-850 mb layer. Favorable phasing of these mechanisms is expected to persist for the next several as the synoptic system shifts east towards the Mid-Atlantic. Consequently, organized snow bands capable of heavy snowfall rates upwards of 1-2 inch/hour will remain possible across the upper OH River Valley into the central Appalachian region for the next several hours. Locations downstream that are currently not below freezing may see a slightly delayed onset of snowfall as low-level saturation promotes temperature reductions below freezing. Furthermore, orographic ascent within the Appalachians may augment lift over eastern WV/western VA and increase the potential for 2+ inch/hour snowfall rates during the 04-06 UTC period. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LMK... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: What counts as underperforming? The precip max shifted 80 miles north in the past 24 hours so what baseline do we even use? Looks like I was just reading posts from catastrophizing weenies. One of the posters here is in Alexandria and they’re already seeing flurries. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 @Stormchaserchuck1 not everyone bases they’re snowfall forecast on 1984 atari snow depth maps 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I think you all need to be careful on some of those radar images a lot of those radars overhype precip and show virga. This one below is rather good I find and it sadly is very hrrr esk i find the precip orientation to be problematic. Just look at it! I find temps to be a problem for initial stickage in the cities. We will snow but there is no question in my mind that we significantly underperform nws totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: If this underperforms should there be a post mortem what went wrong write up? The storm was always going to do what it was going to do. The post mortem would be that models are just that and shouldn’t be read as gospel. It’s also possible it overperforms. We won’t know till it happens because all we have are models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, konksw said: The storm was always going to do what it was going to do. The post mortem would be that models are just that and shouldn’t be read as gospel. It’s also possible it overperforms. We won’t know till it happens because all we have are models. Yeah but some of the trends show a significant reduction of what the NWS is predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Looks like I was just reading posts from catastrophizing weenies. One of the posters here is in Alexandria and they’re already seeing flurries. I’m at our place in McHenry for this. But stop listening to the worry worts, too much teeth gnashing over the HRRR. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I think you all need to be careful on some of those radar images a lot of those radars overhype precip and show virga. This one below is rather good I find and it sadly is very hrrr esk i find the precip orientation to be problematic. Just look at it! I find temps to be a problem for initial stickage in the cities. We will snow but there is no question in my mind that we significantly underperform nws totals. The precip orientation is great for Philly!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m at our place in McHenry for this. But stop listening to the worry worts, too much teeth gnashing over the HRRR. It's not just the hrrr that's hurting us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I think you all need to be careful on some of those radar images a lot of those radars overhype precip and show virga. This one below is rather good I find and it sadly is very hrrr esk i find the precip orientation to be problematic. Just look at it! I find temps to be a problem for initial stickage in the cities. We will snow but there is no question in my mind that we significantly underperform nws totals. I am sorry but it is clearly not raining or mixed in snowshoe as you radar is depicting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 CWG is holding the line. Looking at their comment section I’m not seeing any cliff jumping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Snowing now at deep creek lake per md traffic cams 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: About 45 minutes of random flurries here and there. But picking up now with light snow and dendrites already falling - poses well for snow growth for everyone. Down to 29.8. My grill cover already caved! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, notvirga! said: Snowing now at deep creek lake per md traffic cams Let’s hope this continues on the other side of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Frostburg mesonet site is showing a steadily rising surface dewpoint. Snow should start shortly there. Looksnlike dry air won't be an issue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, paulythegun said: The precip orientation is great for Philly! . That radar is garbage 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, mdhokie said: My grill cover already caved! Yep, the parts of the deck that didn’t have snow cover left have caved too. Meso discussion looks tasty! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Frostburg mesonet site is showing a steadily rising surface dewpoint. Snow should start shortly there. Looksnlike dry air won't be an issue. Hopefully the mountains don’t cause a pseudo rain shadow for those of us to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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