Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Yes, this has trended north, but we're still in the game. If I lived 30 miles south of DC, I'd be sweating it though 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, Negnao said: Surprised there’s not more panic about the north trend. The wiggle room for dc is gone. I still see about 30-40 miles of wiggle room... and with the time left... I would not be sweating it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Clinging to my 300' ASL. I did great in the two january storms so hoping for another heat-island win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: I really hope to get ThunderSnow out of this one. Would be an awesome cherry on top hate to state the obvious but if we see Cantore anywhere near our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Time for the 12z day before the storm tradition: posting idiotic models while we wait for the Euro. The 12z ARPEGE. Still waiting for the GDAP/UM(mmmm) model to run. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I am surprised they went 4-8 for the storm warning for my area. Bullish call imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I know its value is limited at this range, but since I like what it shows, I'm sharing it anyway. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 44 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: HRRR and RAP give me pause with the northward look. I hope we do not see this slip too far north! I’ve been worried about that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Radar is looking tasty though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm planning on going to bed early'ish and getting up after midnight. But we'll see how much whiskey I get into this evening. Pass out at 7 and come to at midnight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: This is looking good. And raise the bar. You don't want to hurt your back reaching for that beer. Bar raised. And the bar will also be open! LOL. Also—Sapwood today for beers? I’m down if you are. And anyone else that’s want to join of course is welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looks like the Canadians are starting to come around. Maybe by 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 42 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Suffice it to say, this ain't happening. But I think 3 to 5 is possible for us immediate metro folks? This is 2024. We are on a roll. I think we can do 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Bar raised. And the bar will also be open! LOL. Also—Sapwood today for beers? I’m down if you are. And anyone else that’s want to join of course is welcome. Oooooh. My fav MD beer.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 49 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 4 to 6 area wide, 6-8 DC N and West up to Mont county. Gettin bigger by the hour !! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 49 minutes ago, Negnao said: Surprised there’s not more panic about the north trend. The wiggle room for dc is gone. Take meds now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks like the Canadians are starting to come around. Maybe by 0z. They have been a mess lately, never had me getting any snow with the last system, even as I already had a few inches on the ground! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’ve been worried about that too There is always the chance of a last minute curve ball, and there is so much guidance now you will always find something that shows either the solution you want or don't want. But I wouldn't worry about those two unless we were within 12 hours OR other more reliable guidance were to trend in its direction. The GFS did shift north some but it was south of the euro. The euro has been pretty much rock steady for 2 days now. I think this was just the GFS coming in line with it, and now the better guidance is all aligned. I am not saying NOT to worry at all but the RAP and HRRR are jumpy and unreliable and I wouldn't base my worries on them without any other support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Radar is looking tasty though Let me ask about the streaming from off TX gulf coast. Is any of the moisture of other benefit of that going to mix in with the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 May be a bit ambitious for my area towards Baltimore, but I’m hoping for a warning-level event. Would be the first here since 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Let me ask about the streaming from off TX gulf coast. Is any of the moisture of other benefit of that going to mix in with the clipper? that TX gulf coast junk was suppose to be PD3 instead we get a PD 2.214848 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is always the chance of a last minute curve ball, and there is so much guidance now you will always find something that shows either the solution you want or don't want. But I wouldn't worry about those two unless we were within 12 hours OR other more reliable guidance were to trend in its direction. The GFS did shift north some but it was south of the euro. The euro has been pretty much rock steady for 2 days now. I think this was just the GFS coming in line with it, and now the better guidance is all aligned. I am not saying NOT to worry at all but the RAP and HRRR are jumpy and unreliable and I wouldn't base my worries on them without any other support. Besides there's only 12 hours left. Not a whole lot of time left for big shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Ji said: that TX gulf coast junk was suppose to be PD3 instead we get a PD 2.214848 Just think, we could all be under warnings right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mama2Many Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Woke up to this..... Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I've seen enough. I'm in. the dynamics look great for out here. hopefully I will get somewhere close to what LWX has forecast, unlike the paltry .5" that fell here on Tuesday. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The HRRR was straight awful the prior event, but I’d still like to see it come around on this one. I’m not a fan of running 4 degrees warmer than the NAM right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Throwing it out there for anyone and everyone. @nw baltimore wxand I be will talking snow and beer at Sapwood around 3:00. The more the merrier. Come on by so we can all watch the HH models roll out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looks great! WB 12Z GFS#purpled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Throwing it out there for anyone and everyone. @nw baltimore wxand I be will talking snow and beer at Sapwood around 3:00. The more the merrier. Come on by so we can all watch the HH models roll out. I thought you meant 3AM. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: I thought you meant 3AM. Lol EDIT. This afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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