Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, EHoffman said: Give us the FREAKIN snow maps! I think the Pivotal maps might've got to the end... but here are the WxBell ones.12k Kuchera 3k Kuchera 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3k has some notable instability aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 With the NAM.. my guess is that Blue Ridge parts of the area will get the warning levels. It may be the same elsewhere. If it were a weekday and not the weekend tomorrow, I would think it would be a more widespread warning due to commute impacts. Just me rambling. This looks nice. Loving the FGEN! I would love some thunder. Thinking I take a nap this afternoon so I can be up late! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: 3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates. Yeah I noticed that too. My biggest takeaway is that the NAMs don’t show the claw… which is great lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates. Temps are basically at freezing near the cities. Once you move toward mountains and the Mason-Dixon Line, different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3K Nam says a few hours and over by 5am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates. You’re not getting 15:1. No one is expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Ji said: 3K Nam says a few hours and over by 5am But we already knew this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, snowfan said: You’re not getting 15:1. No one is expecting that. A few mets on here suggested something from 12:1 to 15:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.What I think I’ve picked up over the past day is that Kuchera heavily weights ground temps in its formula. There are “other” ways to try and calculate it, and some of the better Mets think they’ll be higher. I’m expecting 8:1 as always seems to actually fall. Rates never save anyone in the Beltway… but maybe some folks will do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 North of 70 will likely get 10:1 South obviously Less more like 7-8:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NAMs always thrill or disappoint there is rarely a middle ground.....this particular run for MBY....i feel like i just ate some vanilla ice milk that was out of date....good thing i was hungry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 42 right now and never dropped below 40 last night. Yes, dewpoints look great, but in the immediate metro we always lose something because of balmy temps and a period of white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3k ratios on Pivotal are basically 8-9:1 for most of the area, except along the M/D line which is ~10:1 and the mountains are 15-16:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Liking the trend. I'm all in on the Tenleytown Massif reaching 5". And given the insomnia I've been having recently, I ought to be up for it. Watch tonight be the *one* night when I get continuous stage 3 sleep, though. So better stay up and drink so I'll be there, if not coherent, for the ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just give me one small shift south and I can be happy with 3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 33 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: That was me! I'm 57. It's so nice to have a whole community to talk weather with on here. All I had was weather on the news and my Bearcat weather radio I'm hoping this one surprises a la 3/9/99 I remember listening to my weather radio on low volume so my parents wouldn't hear it, while staring out of the window at the street light watching it ripping. I agree 100%. Thank goodness for the internet. I thought I was alone and weird. I'm weird and not alone lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Perfect pass for us at h85 and the h7 fronto is off the charts. If the NAM verified verbatim, there would be 2-3"/hr rates happening somewhere and possibly TSSN+ 3k is a pounding too, funny how kuch is lower than 10:1, with those soundings and that setup, the growth should be great. Colleague and I were just talking about this. Pivotal utilizes the surface as part of the formula for ratios on Kuchera and it's weighted too heavily. If it started off the surface from 925 and up, it would be much much better. The Kuchera ratios are better on WeatherBell, but still might be a touch high. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Don’t know if this was posted yet. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, EB89 said: Don’t know if this was posted yet. Gotta always share the Reasonable "Worst Case" too 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, EB89 said: Don’t know if this was posted yet. High end potential: Low end floor: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, EB89 said: Don’t know if this was posted yet. That thing must be tied directly to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 938 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-171445- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 938 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The winter weather headlines continue through early Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should be prepared to report snowfall measurements and observations of heavy snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 935 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 MDZ004-VAZ505-170000- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0005.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0007.240217T0400Z-240217T1000Z/ Frederick MD-Western Loudoun- 935 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. The highest totals are most likely under heavier snow bands and for elevations above 1000 feet where isolated totals to 8 inches are possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD County. In Virginia, Western Loudoun County. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible for a few hours under the heaviest snow bands. Visibility may be reduced to less than one half mile at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. && 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 They dropped the watch for the northern counties and went with a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 They snatched back the Warning to the west. Poor Ji. Don't despair, we'll get upgraded after midnight when the storm is just about over. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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