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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm


DDweatherman
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3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It did well for one or both of the Jan events, but a terrible job with the recent one a few days ago

Ehhh. During the first even it didn’t even have the storm in the same location as the radar lol. It was sending the snow to like Altoona. 

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HRRR was awful for the last storm and is also very jumpy this far from the event. I wouldn't really get worried about anything it is showing until this evening, and even then, I wouldn't give it much weight unless other guidance came in line with it.

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2072046756_Snowforecast.thumb.PNG.361fd8641a2b47e14792d372face208b.PNG

 

Rough snow forecast outline (Medium Confidence):

Zone A: 6-10"

Zone B: 3-5" w/ stripe of 5-6" within the 85H frontogen band that sets up from NoVA through SoMD. The potential does include the DC metro, but best chance for highest totals will lie on the edge and outside the beltway. Uncertainty for Southern DE due to thermals

Zone C: 4-6" in the Catoctins and adjacent terrain 

Zone D: 4-6" w/ max of 7" elevation areas above 650ft. This is tricky depending on 7H frontogenesis placement

Most of region: 2-5" fairly widespread. Higher totals within the Parrs ridge area from NW MoCo through western HoCo into the Carroll/Frederick border (Clarksburg/Damascus/Mount Airy). 1-2" for areas south of Zone B

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

2072046756_Snowforecast.thumb.PNG.361fd8641a2b47e14792d372face208b.PNG

 

Rough snow forecast outline (Medium Confidence):

Zone A: 6-10"

Zone B: 3-5" w/ stripe of 5-6" within the 85H frontogen band that sets up from NoVA through SoMD. The potential does include the DC metro, but best chance for highest totals will lie on the edge and outside the beltway. Uncertainty for Southern DE due to thermals

Zone C: 4-6" in the Catoctins and adjacent terrain 

Zone D: 4-6" w/ max of 7" elevation areas above 650ft. This is tricky depending on 7H frontogenesis placement

Most of region: 2-5" fairly widespread. Higher totals within the Parrs ridge area from NW MoCo through western HoCo into the Carroll/Frederick border (Clarksburg/Damascus/Mount Airy). 1-2" for areas south of Zone B

Tell LWX to give me my goddamn warning or there WILL be consequences. 

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12 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

This reminds me of a classic event when I was a kid (I'm 45). Go to bed with no snow and wake up with snow! That was normal kids. I wasn't surprised because I was up all night creeping around the house, looking out every window lol

That was me!  I'm 57.  It's so nice to have a whole community to talk weather with on here.  All I had was weather on the news and my Bearcat weather radio

I'm hoping this one surprises a la 3/9/99

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Perfect pass for us at h85 and the h7 fronto is off the charts. If the NAM verified verbatim, there would be 2-3"/hr rates happening somewhere and possibly TSSN+

3k is a pounding too, funny how kuch is lower than 10:1, with those soundings and that setup, the growth should be great. 

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