Snowman. Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS juiced up too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This little clipper that was headed north of us originally, looks to be the best so far this season for a forum-wide event. I remember one clipper in the past 10 years where we got about 6-8” in Fairfax, but we were just expecting a few. Hopefully our 3rd over-performer this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: This little clipper that was headed north of us originally, looks to be the best so far this season for a forum-wide event. I remember one clipper in the past 10 years where we got about 6-8” in Fairfax, but we were just expecting a few. Hopefully our 3rd over-performer this year! Technically this one isn't a clipper. It a northern stream shortwave from the Pac. We had some of these in 2014 and 2015 when the tpv acted as a block. They can carry much more juice than a clipper diving from the polar regions. Stripes are narrow but pretty juicy. Should be a fun storm 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6z GFS expanded/shifted north the southern precip max 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Technically this one isn't a clipper. It a northern stream shortwave from the Pac. We had some of these in 2014 and 2015 when the tpv acted as a block. They can carry much more juice than a clipper diving from the polar regions. Stripes are narrow but pretty juicy. Should be a fun storm Oh thanks for clarifying! Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Technically this one isn't a clipper. It a northern stream shortwave from the Pac. We had some of these in 2014 and 2015 when the tpv acted as a block. They can carry much more juice than a clipper diving from the polar regions. Stripes are narrow but pretty juicy. Should be a fun storm Yeah not a clipper. Nice timing with the upper level features. The region is gonna be under the left exit region of the jet streak with PVA as the shortwave approaches. With cold air in place, perfect for a quick shot of moderate to heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Latest from LWX. Looks like they generally increased totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah not a clipper. Nice timing with the upper level features. The region is gonna be under the left exit region of the jet streak with PVA as the shortwave approaches. With cold air in place, perfect for a quick shot of moderate to heavy snow. NWS considers it a clipper. SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A fast moving clipper system is forecast to track across southern Virginia tonight into Saturday morning. Cold air aloft will be in place for much of the area, although the thermal gradient will be very close to central Virginia and southern Maryland. Surface temperatures may be a few degrees above freezing at onset and may fail to drop much below freezing closer to the waters/urban areas and from Charlottesville to southern Maryland. However, the snow rates and overnight time frame will result in some accumulation across much of the area, with the main question mark being south of I-64. Onset time will be between 7 PM and midnight from west to east. Strong frontogentical forcing and the cyclonic side of a 200 kt jet aloft will result in very strong lift and good dendrite growth. This will lead to banding potential with 1-2 inch per hour rates. The location of the heavier bands remains in question, however the overall QPF maximum lies squarely across our forecast area. Travel will likely quickly deteriorate due to the snow rates. The main limiting factor is the very fast movement of the system, with most areas only seeing 3 or 4 hours of heavier snow rates. Snow will quickly depart to the east around or just after sunrise, except for some light lingering upslope snow which could last into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah not a clipper. Nice timing with the upper level features. The region is gonna be under the left exit region of the jet streak with PVA as the shortwave approaches. With cold air in place, perfect for a quick shot of moderate to heavy snow. I've liked this period for a quick hitter for a while but I was silent because it was a little normal opportunity during a time when everyone wanted something 10x the size lol. I am suprised how much it juiced up. Definitely another potential max performer even if in the modest category. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 How quickly will we warm up tomorrow? I don’t want it melt!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Latest from LWX. Looks like they generally increased totals. I just saw the WWA. I’m betting an upgrade to a warning at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: NWS considers it a clipper. Certainly has a clipper vibe from amounts, speed, northern stream but the origin is Seattle. Lol. Alberta Clipper, Manitoba Mauler, and now.... hold on to your seats... the Seattle Slammer! 3 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Certainly has a clipper vibe from amounts, speed, northern stream but the origin is Seattle. Lol. Alberta Clipper, Manitoba Mauler, and now.... hold on to your seats... the Seattle Slammer! Seattle slammers are the best lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: NWS considers it a clipper. SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A fast moving clipper system is forecast to track across southern Virginia tonight into Saturday morning. Cold air aloft will be in place for much of the area, although the thermal gradient will be very close to central Virginia and southern Maryland. Surface temperatures may be a few degrees above freezing at onset and may fail to drop much below freezing closer to the waters/urban areas and from Charlottesville to southern Maryland. However, the snow rates and overnight time frame will result in some accumulation across much of the area, with the main question mark being south of I-64. Onset time will be between 7 PM and midnight from west to east. Strong frontogentical forcing and the cyclonic side of a 200 kt jet aloft will result in very strong lift and good dendrite growth. This will lead to banding potential with 1-2 inch per hour rates. The location of the heavier bands remains in question, however the overall QPF maximum lies squarely across our forecast area. Travel will likely quickly deteriorate due to the snow rates. The main limiting factor is the very fast movement of the system, with most areas only seeing 3 or 4 hours of heavier snow rates. Snow will quickly depart to the east around or just after sunrise, except for some light lingering upslope snow which could last into the afternoon. 'Clipper' used to refer to an Alberta clipper. Well, those are apparently extinct. So call it whatever. It's gonna snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: How quickly will we warm up tomorrow? I don’t want it melt!!! Can't remember what year it was but @WinterWxLuvr was just getting lambasted compared to the metros. At first it was funny but then it got to me so I had a crazy idea. I was going to rent a big dump trailer and run up there in the middle of the night haul all his snow off while he was asleep. It was an awesome idea but the crazy factor was a bit much... I had a change of heart and ripped a u-turn in Front Royal at midnight and returned the trailer the next day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Jesus Christ.. I love this place. So many weirdos. It's 6am and you freaks that been up all night are cracking me up. Let's get it! I can almost make climo tonight! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The juicing has begun. Love to see the 0.5”+ QPF numbers show up and expand, particularly when they’re over my house 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The juicing has begun. Love to see the 0.5”+ QPF numbers show up and expand, particularly when they’re over my house Just got a text from the HoCoMoCo deathband telling you and me to get our places ready to rumble. TSSN is trying to make an appearance but busy elsewhere. Maybe a cameo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think we get warnings later today with these qpf juice ups. GFS is sick. I’ll buy 5-6” please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: Seattle slammers are the best lol As long as it's not a Cleveland Steamer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The latest blend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 HoCo MoCo death band showing up on the 6z Euro. total qpf Kuchera 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Can't remember what year it was but @WinterWxLuvr was just getting lambasted compared to the metros. At first it was funny but then it got to me so I had a crazy idea. I was going to rent a big dump trailer and run up there in the middle of the night haul all his snow off while he was asleep. It was an awesome idea but the crazy factor was a bit much... I had a change of heart and ripped a u-turn in Front Royal at midnight and returned the trailer the next day Lol I remember that …. I think that was early in 2013. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: Seattle slammers are the best lol Much better than a cleveland steamer! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Sweet if somehow my area can pull off 5" from this that would be pretty awesome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Sweet if somehow if my area can pull off 5" from this that would be pretty awesome Euro and GFS both have 5” for our area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Euro and GFS both have 5” for our area Euro qpf max is north of me gfs max is south of me. Look ma i'm a qpf samich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: HoCo MoCo death band showing up on the 6z Euro. total qpf Kuchera Lock it up!! 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, Scraff said: Lock it up!! First time I’ve seen Mr Paul all year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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