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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm


DDweatherman
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47 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Looking good! Time for the sub 24 hour QPF juice up to commence ;)

I don’t know how much it will juice up but I think for places where the surface temps are below freezing the kuchera is under doing the ratios. The DGZ is plenty cold and saturated. Good lift. That matters more. Yea the surface temps might cut it down from 18-1 to 15-1 but somewhere that gets a combo of both cold enough and best lift will get ~15-1 to 18-1 with .3-.45 qpf that’s my 4-8” max band call right there. Where exactly that ends up is hard to say.  But it’s likely near the northern periphery of the higher qpf zone. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Do you have 12k weenie map?

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3k and 12k kuchera. But the ratios are being limited by the boundary temps. I think whoever gets under banding will do better than this thinks. Snow growth looks pretty optimal imo. 
IMG_1580.thumb.png.bb16e0744575ee4a7189e864ed8a9a30.png

IMG_1581.thumb.png.9077462c859f5caf1d08bce2abb67c51.png

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3k and 12k kuchera. But the ratios are being limited by the boundary temps. I think whoever gets under banding will do better than this thinks. Snow growth looks pretty optimal imo. 
IMG_1580.thumb.png.bb16e0744575ee4a7189e864ed8a9a30.png
IMG_1581.thumb.png.9077462c859f5caf1d08bce2abb67c51.png
Thanks. While this is nice....I can't help but feel like we wasted a golden opportunity for historic this weekend

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Just now, Ji said:

Thanks. While this is nice....I can't help but feel like we wasted a golden opportunity for historic this weekend

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Naw. That TPV lobe is really close by, which is why this wave is suppressed enough for us even despite less blocking than expected. It would have taken a really intricate complicated convoluted phased progression to get a big storm and have it be snow from this setup. It’s why I was never crazy about it. But having the blocking fall apart opened the door for the NS wave to ride the boundary and stripe us. This is about the best case scenario imo. 

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