Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Not a big fan of the "dual maximum" look, but whatever...that's yet to be resolved. I'm just glad to have a decent advisory-level event in the offing, and it now looks like it should stick around for a day and not torch on Saturday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, stormy said: The latest GFS doesn't like your ideas. Only .23.- .39 I’m pretty sure this will have a zone of 4-8”. Now whether that will end up over us is another issue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Not a big fan of the "dual maximum" look, but whatever...that's yet to be resolved. I'm just glad to have a decent advisory-level event in the offing, and it now looks like it should stick around for a day and not torch on Saturday now. Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, stormy said: The latest GFS doesn't like your ideas. Only .23.- .39 isn't .39 in the .35-.55 range? eta: PSU wasn’t talking about forum-wide ranges. He was saying if you could get qpf in your backyard to .4 to .5 then you can multiply by more than 10 and get 4-8” in places. At least that was my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just remember everyone... Boston is getting shutout again 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, WVsnowlover said: Strange that 10:1 is higher than Kuchera. Definitely looking like the potential is there for the biggest snow of the season for many. Kuchera (as I understand it) is highly sensitive to the maximum temperature in kelvin in up to 500mb (Tmax below). I ran the calculation for DC for the Euro where the max temp is 273..15 in Kelvin (0 degrees C) during the height of the storm and that translates to 8.01 to 1 ratios using the Kuchera method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this Yeah it might be time to delete the thread and start a new one if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: Just remember everyone... Boston is getting shutout again We're going to pay for that for decades. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18z gefs not bad 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: Just remember everyone... Boston is getting shutout again Poor Boston! Nah, F them….good practice for when their climo is like Atlanta’s in 50 years….or ours now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Kuchera (as I understand it) is highly sensitive to the maximum temperature in kelvin in up to 500mb (Tmax below). I ran the calculation for DC for the Euro where the max temp is 273..15 in Kelvin (0 degrees C) during the height of the storm and that translates to 8.01 to 1 ratios using the Kuchera method. 150% upside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This won't shift north (of 18z GFS) and you'll get 2.5" to 4.5" (4-6" WV mtns). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: isn't .39 in the .35-.55 range? eta: PSU wasn’t talking about forum-wide ranges. He was saying if you could get qpf in your backyard to .4 to .5 then you can multiply by more than 10 and get 4-8” in places. At least that was my take. Thanks but not worth it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Yeah it might be time to delete the thread and start a new one if that happens Hopefully we may not need to. Ensembles on all models have been zeroing in on our sub and looking more stable. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So I have a flight out of DCA at 6am to Atlanta on Saturday. I plan on parking on the top floor of short term parking, so will take a snow measurement from there (probably off someone’s car…I will be gentle, it’s for science). Figure we can see whose snow measurements are better…the FAA’s or a met school dropout. Stay tuned! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: isn't .39 in the .35-.55 range? You are exactly right my friend out here on the western front!.. .39 is indeed in the .35 - .55 range. This was for PSU and you nailed it. I'm just playing semantics, don't you understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this Dude you already pulled it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: This won't shift north (of 18z GFS) and you'll get 2.5" to 4.5" (6" WV). I am very happy to read this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this aka "commence the unpinning!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: This won't shift north (of 18z GFS) and you'll get 2.5" to 4.5" (6" WV). in the mountains, sure—the winter storm warnings will go live tonight. but most of us don’t live there and will get 2-3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Started a new job last week and have a data analytics class that’s taking up my time, so this system would be a nice bookend to a busy last few weeks in my world. Side note…I’m hoping Richmond gets on the board to help my snowfall forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I am hoping for five of these to help my snowfall forecast. Edited my forecast re WV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Wxtrix said: in the mountains, sure—the winter storm warnings will go live tonight. but most of us don’t live there and will get 2-3”. Nah. I think you will do better than that. My Final call: 3-5 for everyone in this subforum with 8 inch jacks in elevated areas. Maybe double digits up around Deep Creek. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Nah. I think you will do better than that. My Final call: 3-5 for everyone in this subforum with 8 inch jacks in elevated areas. Maybe double digits up around Deep Creek. My final call: 2-4 for most in this subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Winter Storm Watch extended to DC suburbs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-CECIL- CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH- FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-NORTHERN FAUQUIER- WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-CENTRAL VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE- NORTHWEST PRINCE WILLIAM-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- 600 PM EST THU FEB 15 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE MOST LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS OF UP TO 6 INCHES UNDER HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, NORTHERN, AND WESTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA, AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. * WHEN...FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE STEADIEST SNOW IS MOST LIKELY FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE WEST OF INTERSTATE 81. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 There you go @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 24 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Hopefully we may not need to. Ensembles on all models have been zeroing in on our sub and looking more stable. Most years I’d be very nervous. But this year there really hasn’t been any north trend once inside 100 hours. The storms that did shift north all did it way before now. Under 48 hours the trend has been south really. Obviously every situation is different but the seasonal trend does matter some. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Why can't they just throw the city in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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