WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Been a while since we’ve had a bonfide circulating clipper move under us. I’m thinking it may not hustle away as quickly as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Interesting tweet, and digging deeper into the upper level maps, I agree. This gets us more upside in terms of qpf, but the DC metro is dangerously close to missing the best banding with this north trend. I don't think we go 4/4 on last minute south trend this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 18Z GFS Snowmaps....Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: where we want it I wouldn’t use 10-1 maps. Some places south will have worse ratios. Some places north better. 10-1 is going to be high in places and low is others. Kuchera is actually better for this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: If answered already then sorry but for DC proper what is onset and end time? Seeing 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. on latest guidance. could flurry to 8 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Nice to see warning level snow on the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 I wouldn’t use 10-1 maps. Some places south will have worse ratios. Some places north better. 10-1 is going to be high in places and low is others. Kuchera is actually better for this one. 10:1 allows people to make their assumptions, but fair. If you really want to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Why is anybody posting anything from DT? The dude is an embarrassment. He is on the wrong side of the forecast so often but that’s not the real issue. Somehow he’s allowed to make errors in his forecast on a consistent basis, but he is quick to criticize the forecast of other meteorologist, and often in such a rude way that he just makes himself look bad. He definitely has issues. I will admit I follow him, but not because of his forecast and the fact that he thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room. No I follow him because it’s a freaking train wreck. I love it when he says something can’t happen and then the next model runs it happens. Many times when the weather is not going the way he predicted somehow his server goes down or there’s another personal crisis where he can’t get on to make a post. Look things happen, but it seems very convenient that they happen when his forecast goes up and smoke. He is a joke.. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 15 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Precip still hanging on at 39 before exiting This is a W PWC special. I can feel it. Max to our south. Good lift based on that Pauly post. Yeah unless something fucks the pooch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 50 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I gotta find my map where I parodied his maps. I think I posted it last year His start time maps are the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 7 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: Why is anybody posting anything from DT? The dude is an embarrassment. He is on the wrong side of the forecast so often but that’s not the real issue. Somehow he’s allowed to make errors in his forecast on a consistent basis, but he is quick to criticize the forecast of other meteorologist, and often in such a rude way that he just makes himself look bad. He definitely has issues. I will admit I follow him, but not because of his forecast and the fact that he thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room. No I follow him because it’s a freaking train wreck. I love it when he says something can’t happen and then the next model runs it happens. Many times when the weather is not going the way he predicted somehow his server goes down or there’s another personal crisis where he can’t get on to make a post. Look things happen, but it seems very convenient that they happen when his forecast goes up and smoke. He is a joke. . You new here? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This has sneaky upside. It's not really a clipper, its a progressive west to east wave that partially phases with the NS. It's trending more amplified, but I think there is a limit to how far north it can shift given the boundary. Lift looks maximized in the DGZ and mid level temps are cold. Get this into the .35-.55 qpf range and this could reasonably become a 4-8" sneaky snowstorm. The latest GFS doesn't like your ideas. Only .23.- .39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: You new here? You admit that you follow him. What more needs to be said??? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Not a big fan of the "dual maximum" look, but whatever...that's yet to be resolved. I'm just glad to have a decent advisory-level event in the offing, and it now looks like it should stick around for a day and not torch on Saturday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 6 minutes ago, stormy said: The latest GFS doesn't like your ideas. Only .23.- .39 I’m pretty sure this will have a zone of 4-8”. Now whether that will end up over us is another issue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Not a big fan of the "dual maximum" look, but whatever...that's yet to be resolved. I'm just glad to have a decent advisory-level event in the offing, and it now looks like it should stick around for a day and not torch on Saturday now. Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 12 minutes ago, stormy said: The latest GFS doesn't like your ideas. Only .23.- .39 isn't .39 in the .35-.55 range? eta: PSU wasn’t talking about forum-wide ranges. He was saying if you could get qpf in your backyard to .4 to .5 then you can multiply by more than 10 and get 4-8” in places. At least that was my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Just remember everyone... Boston is getting shutout again 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 1 hour ago, WVsnowlover said: Strange that 10:1 is higher than Kuchera. Definitely looking like the potential is there for the biggest snow of the season for many. Kuchera (as I understand it) is highly sensitive to the maximum temperature in kelvin in up to 500mb (Tmax below). I ran the calculation for DC for the Euro where the max temp is 273..15 in Kelvin (0 degrees C) during the height of the storm and that translates to 8.01 to 1 ratios using the Kuchera method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this Yeah it might be time to delete the thread and start a new one if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: Just remember everyone... Boston is getting shutout again We're going to pay for that for decades. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 18z gefs not bad 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: Just remember everyone... Boston is getting shutout again Poor Boston! Nah, F them….good practice for when their climo is like Atlanta’s in 50 years….or ours now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 5 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Kuchera (as I understand it) is highly sensitive to the maximum temperature in kelvin in up to 500mb (Tmax below). I ran the calculation for DC for the Euro where the max temp is 273..15 in Kelvin (0 degrees C) during the height of the storm and that translates to 8.01 to 1 ratios using the Kuchera method. 150% upside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 This won't shift north (of 18z GFS) and you'll get 2.5" to 4.5" (4-6" WV mtns). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 13 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: isn't .39 in the .35-.55 range? eta: PSU wasn’t talking about forum-wide ranges. He was saying if you could get qpf in your backyard to .4 to .5 then you can multiply by more than 10 and get 4-8” in places. At least that was my take. Thanks but not worth it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 8 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Yeah it might be time to delete the thread and start a new one if that happens Hopefully we may not need to. Ensembles on all models have been zeroing in on our sub and looking more stable. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 So I have a flight out of DCA at 6am to Atlanta on Saturday. I plan on parking on the top floor of short term parking, so will take a snow measurement from there (probably off someone’s car…I will be gentle, it’s for science). Figure we can see whose snow measurements are better…the FAA’s or a met school dropout. Stay tuned! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: isn't .39 in the .35-.55 range? You are exactly right my friend out here on the western front!.. .39 is indeed in the .35 - .55 range. This was for PSU and you nailed it. I'm just playing semantics, don't you understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this Dude you already pulled it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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