WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But how can this one trend better, though? It seems like more of a quick hitter...and it's not like we need it to trend souther...so where would the extra juice come from? Yeah there’s a ceiling here given the setup, but again, so was the comparison I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But how can this one trend better, though? It seems like more of a quick hitter...and it's not like we need it to trend souther...so where would the extra juice come from? It will come from unpinning this thread and then re-pinning it. Pay attention, please. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 DCA needs 2.1 inches to hit double digits for the season. Maybe not an unreasonable down and distance for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Remember, JB sniffed it out first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah there’s a ceiling here given the setup, but again, so was the comparison I mentioned. I think the EPS 90th percentile does a good job at illustrating the possible ceiling. It's obviously fallible as the EPS run it's built on... it definitely did not nail the January storms that all trended up. But a look at the max with the "current" conditions. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 ICON looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON looks nice Looks like an "upside" scenario for sure. Of course TT is missing the best panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Looks like an "upside" scenario for sure. Of course TT is missing the best panels. ICONic 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Too bad it's the ICON 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: ICONic Back in the day we would say "we abscond" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The 18z NAM has an ESE trajectory from N Kentucky with cold air filtering in from the NW. This could work for a 1-3 swat. 850 looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Lalalock that upppp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Too bad it's the ICONIcon uses euro parts. It’s beating the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Icon uses euro parts. It’s beating the gfs Half joking... the dirty secret of weather forecasting and this hobby may be that the GFS is probably worse than the EURO, UKIE, CMC, ICON... maybe even some of the other models from Asia that really get no looks from us because the graphical outputs are horrible. Yet since it's the American flagship it gets the most if not the second most attention. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Half joking... the dirty secret of weather forecasting and this hobby may be that the GFS is probably worse than the EURO, UKIE, CMC, ICON... maybe even some of the other models from Asia that really get no looks from us because the graphical outputs are horrible. Yet since it's the American flagship it gets the most if not the second most attention. I was also half joking, but it's true that the GFS isn't doing much better either. Maybe even worse than the ICON. If the GFS had support from other models, then yeah there's some credibility, but if it's alone it should be tossed. Even if it shows a snowstorm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 GFS is pretty nice (in context!!). Not a big one but 2-4 for most of us with 4-6 northern tier ETA: 4-6 covers a wider area up north 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS is pretty nice (in context!!). Not a big one but 2-4 for most of us with 4-6 northern tier abscond 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The 18z GFS has trended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS is pretty nice (in context!!). Not a big one but 2-4 for most of us with 4-6 northern tier That's like a classic 90s snowstorm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 That slug of moisture suppressed to the south behind this wave tho (feels like losing the AFC Championship lasr month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: That slug of moistur suppressed to the south behind this wave tho You serious, Clark? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's like a classic 90s snowstorm. Would be happier if we could get slightly colder temps. Cities float around 32/33. Northern/western areas 29/30. If we can keep moistening up that would help. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's like a classic 90s snowstorm. Even similar to many 70s events in the DMV until things got going in 78 and 79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: You serious, Clark? Well yeah I mean it this threat could've been bigger had we been able to get more phasing...(and if the cold wasn't chasing it). Felt like that was our PD3 chance sliding by... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's like a classic 90s snowstorm. In tribute, I’ll go listen to the new Pearl Jam song for the 5th time. Lol. But yeah, definitely got a classic feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Would be happier if we could get slightly colder temps. Cities float around 32/33. Northern/western areas 29/30. If we can keep moistening up that would help. Let's see if we can add 0.25" QPF regionwide and drop temps by 2 to 4 degrees. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Let's see if we can add 0.25" QPF regionwide and drop temps by 2 to 4 degrees. Don't be greedy!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You serious, Clark? tell him to stop looking down there...it aint coming up the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Highs Fri upper 30s low 40s across the region with a dry airmass in place 8-12hrs before snow moves in. It's not a total crap airmass to work with. Just need to juice it up! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now