The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm

[nw baltimore wx]

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This has sneaky upside.  It's not really a clipper, its a progressive west to east wave that partially phases with the NS.  It's trending more amplified, but I think there is a limit to how far north it can shift given the boundary.  Lift looks maximized in the DGZ and mid level temps are cold.  Get this into the .35-.55 qpf range and this could reasonably become a 4-8" sneaky snowstorm.  

@psuhoffman just said this is like President's Day '79!!

[stormtracker]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

The NAMing has to come, right? It’s like waiting on JAWS. You know it’s swimming out there

You rang?

[RickinBaltimore]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The NAMing has to come, right? It’s like waiting on JAWS. You know it’s swimming out there

You're going to need a bigger shovel

[stormy]

32 minutes ago, MDSnowyWxTracker said:

Yeah this storm has more potential than most of the storms we dealt with this year.  Coming at night, somewhat of a decent cold air supply at the right time(even if a hit and run), decent precip shield and the track. This reminds me a lot of 2013-2014 storms we encountered.  The track especially, if I were to guess, once over VA mountains we could see a nice intensifying of the storm. I do think this likely could be a general 4-8 for many as we get even closer but I will differ to the better posters on that.

Anything coming from the Texas, Panhandle always has potential.

[Wxtrix]

48 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

10pm onset is utterly delicious

wrestling is over, night is not over, not sucking down coffee for a 3am onset that’s rain, had dinner with grandchildren earlier, obs thread will be stellar.  Could be woody material come crunch time !

 

what?

[yoda]

2pm update

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I don't get enough credit for coining the Euro as Dr. No.    I want my dues.  

All this time I thought that was a Ji term, lol

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX 

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
217 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Very brief high pressure quickly traverses the area on Friday,
bringing dry conditions for the daytime hours. Highs expected to
reach the 30s in the Alleghenies, and 40s to low 50s elsewhere.

A fast moving clipper system is forecast to track along or near the
I-64 corridor in the southern 1/3rd of the CWA Friday tonight into
Saturday morning. This system is going to bring widespread snow to
most of the forecast area, with rain likely in areas south of the
low`s track. The 12Z guidance continues to trend upwards with QPF and
forecast snow amounts, with favorable dynamics for banding and high
snow rates. Temps aloft are expected to be cold to support snow
throughout the event. The highest snow amounts are likely in the
Alleghenies and where any banding features develop (which at this
point is difficult to pin down). In the Alleghenies, forecast snow
amounts of 4-6" with isolated higher amounts up to 8" possible.
Elsewhere, forecast snow amounts of 1-3" with isolated higher amounts
of 4-5" possible. The Blue Ridge could see 2-5" of snow. Again, those
higher end amounts are going to depend on where snow bands set up.

The Winter Weather Watches remain for the Alleghenies and parts of
the Potomac Highlands where confidence is high for 4-6" of snow.
Winter Weather Advisories will likely be issued for most of the rest
of the area tonight, as that will be around 24 hours before snow
falls late Friday night. Stay tuned to the latest updates at
weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Precipitation ends from west to east Saturday morning, with any
lingering light snow east of I-95 ending by late morning. Mountain
snow showers continue through the afternoon. High pressure builds in
Saturday afternoon as dry conditions prevail. Temperatures quickly
rebound to the 30s to low 40s outside of the mountains, which should
allow a good/most of the snow on the ground to melt. Temperatures
Saturday night drop to 20s, with 10s for the mountains.

 

[Terpeast]

30-35% chance for 4” or more in dc/balt. I’d take those odds

[MillvilleWx]

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

2pm update

 

That's pretty specific for Frederick 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

why is my thing showing 6 inches

Congrats Hamilton 

[Ji]

21 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

what?

drinking and aging makes people funny

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The NAMing has to come, right? It’s like waiting on JAWS. You know it’s swimming out there

FWIW over the years I've noticed a tendancy for the NAM to be high on precip when the system involves convection or deep moisture and dry in situations like these.  

[Ji]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Congrats Hamilton 

well i can walk to Hamilton from my house

[aldie 22]

16 minutes ago, yoda said:

2pm update

 

That's less than this mornings update

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

30-35% chance for 4” or more in dc/balt. I’d take those odds

i just want a winter storm watch. Digital colors and words are more important for me

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

well i can walk to Hamilton from my house

Sure you can Moses 

[Ji]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

That's less than this mornings update

why would he a post a map that shows less when the models showed more

[clskinsfan]

This bad boy has the classic region wide 4-6 with 8 inch lolli's written all over it. Old school snowstorm coming. 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

That's less than this mornings update

Nothing on guidance that would suggest lowering totals  kinda odd

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

why is my thing showing 6 inches

check your ruler, you probably just mixed up the metric and standard sides 

[jayyy]

Wait this storm is legit happening? Haven’t been paying much attention at all. Just got back into town last night. Let’s goooo

[stormtracker]

Let's get on with that NAM show

[LeesburgWx]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This bad boy has the classic region wide 4-6 with 8 inch lolli's written all over it. Old school snowstorm coming. 

You start drinking already?

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

check your ruler, you probably just mixed up the metric and standard sides 

you told us all we get any now is 1 inch events or HECS and we dont do 3-6/4-8 anymore. Thats all we have done this winter! What a terrible time to go back to moderate snows when we should be getting HECS

[jayyy]

So far models are trending for the better. 36-42 hours out

The trend of the season… BETTER / WETTER as we get closer.

[Wxtrix]

the forecasted amounts always move around.

y’all spend too much time on maps and not enough on soundings.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Wait this storm is legit happening? Haven’t been paying much attention at all. Just got back into town last night. Let’s goooo

Yup

[LeesburgWx]

I’m in DT’s 4” range. Means I either get rain or 12”

[MountainGeek]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Let's get on with that NAM show

Per PSU, in these setups we get to double the NAM QPF output whatever it shows.....