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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm


DDweatherman
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Yeah this storm has more potential than most of the storms we dealt with this year.  Coming at night, somewhat of a decent cold air supply at the right time(even if a hit and run), decent precip shield and the track. This reminds me a lot of 2013-2014 storms we encountered.  The track especially, if I were to guess, once over VA mountains we could see a nice intensifying of the storm. I do think this likely could be a general 4-8 for many as we get even closer but I will differ to the better posters on that.

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This has sneaky upside.  It's not really a clipper, its a progressive west to east wave that partially phases with the NS.  It's trending more amplified, but I think there is a limit to how far north it can shift given the boundary.  Lift looks maximized in the DGZ and mid level temps are cold.  Get this into the .35-.55 qpf range and this could reasonably become a 4-8" sneaky snowstorm.  

:o

@psuhoffman just said this is like President's Day '79!!

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32 minutes ago, MDSnowyWxTracker said:

Yeah this storm has more potential than most of the storms we dealt with this year.  Coming at night, somewhat of a decent cold air supply at the right time(even if a hit and run), decent precip shield and the track. This reminds me a lot of 2013-2014 storms we encountered.  The track especially, if I were to guess, once over VA mountains we could see a nice intensifying of the storm. I do think this likely could be a general 4-8 for many as we get even closer but I will differ to the better posters on that.

Anything coming from the Texas, Panhandle always has potential.

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48 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

10pm onset is utterly delicious

wrestling is over, night is not over, not sucking down coffee for a 3am onset that’s rain, had dinner with grandchildren earlier, obs thread will be stellar.  Could be woody material come crunch time !

 

what?

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Afternoon AFD from LWX 

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
217 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Very brief high pressure quickly traverses the area on Friday,
bringing dry conditions for the daytime hours. Highs expected to
reach the 30s in the Alleghenies, and 40s to low 50s elsewhere.

A fast moving clipper system is forecast to track along or near the
I-64 corridor in the southern 1/3rd of the CWA Friday tonight into
Saturday morning. This system is going to bring widespread snow to
most of the forecast area, with rain likely in areas south of the
low`s track. The 12Z guidance continues to trend upwards with QPF and
forecast snow amounts, with favorable dynamics for banding and high
snow rates. Temps aloft are expected to be cold to support snow
throughout the event. The highest snow amounts are likely in the
Alleghenies and where any banding features develop (which at this
point is difficult to pin down). In the Alleghenies, forecast snow
amounts of 4-6" with isolated higher amounts up to 8" possible.
Elsewhere, forecast snow amounts of 1-3" with isolated higher amounts
of 4-5" possible. The Blue Ridge could see 2-5" of snow. Again, those
higher end amounts are going to depend on where snow bands set up.

The Winter Weather Watches remain for the Alleghenies and parts of
the Potomac Highlands where confidence is high for 4-6" of snow.
Winter Weather Advisories will likely be issued for most of the rest
of the area tonight, as that will be around 24 hours before snow
falls late Friday night. Stay tuned to the latest updates at
weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Precipitation ends from west to east Saturday morning, with any
lingering light snow east of I-95 ending by late morning. Mountain
snow showers continue through the afternoon. High pressure builds in
Saturday afternoon as dry conditions prevail. Temperatures quickly
rebound to the 30s to low 40s outside of the mountains, which should
allow a good/most of the snow on the ground to melt. Temperatures
Saturday night drop to 20s, with 10s for the mountains.
 
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28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The NAMing has to come, right? It’s like waiting on JAWS. You know it’s swimming out there

FWIW over the years I've noticed a tendancy for the NAM to be high on precip when the system involves convection or deep moisture and dry in situations like these.  

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