The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I don’t care what the verification scores say for UK, it’s never right. 

Yeah, I just don't get it.  For like the last 10 years or so I keep hearing it's great verification scores, but with almost every storm it won't catch a clue until we're almost upon an event. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I don't get enough credit for coining the Euro as Dr. No.    I want my dues.  

[Scraff]

For what it’s worth, the Weather Channel is saying 3-5 for just about everyone in here. Even mentioned a little upside potential. However, they did  mention Georgetown specifically,  and how those living in that quadrant of DC are completely fucked on this one. I was like whhhhhhaaaat! 

[MN Transplant]

Just because we are showing all the models, here is NCAR’s MPAS via NSSL.  This is still in testing mode but is planning to work its way into operations in the future.  Not much granularity available, but it does at least support the 0.25”+ amounts the other models are showing.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yes but what's with the best guess precip type of rain?

 

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong

(again, it means nothing as far as verification)

The UKMET precip type maps on pivotal are awful.  It works both ways...when the surface is cold they calculate ice as snow.  Several times someone posted this crazy snow map all excited and I checked the thermals and was like "that's not snow".  It also does this sometimes where because the surface is near 32 it calculates snow as rain.  It seems to overly weight the surface for the precip type calculation.  Just use the precip maps then look at the thermals and disregard the snow maps if you want to judge the UKMET.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, something must be wrong with that other map's algorithm for that run

That or it's almost time for thread number 2.

[Solution Man]

New thread....let's do it

[stormtracker]

Euro rolling...let's bring it on home

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

New thread....let's do it

I don't see the reason for it... but it's @Deck Pic thread then

[stormtracker]

Carbon Copy of 6z so far through 27 hours...

[stormtracker]

3z at the doorstep...not seeing any remarkable changes for us so far

[stormtracker]

Gets going between 3z and 6z...still no huge differences vs 6z

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I don’t care what the verification scores say for UK, it’s never right. 

That isn't the UKMET's fault that's an issue with how the maps are generated.  For whatever reason no US outlets provide quality maps for the UKMET.  

[stormtracker]

The good stuff arrives between 9z and 12z..almost looks like a comma head type deal at 12z...was also on 6z

[stormtracker]

2-4  with a little lollipop of 4-6 riding the beltway north of DC and toward Annapolis, lol and one just north of PSU land...he could see it from his house

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

The good stuff arrives between 9z and 12z..almost looks like a comma head type deal at 12z...was also on 6z

Oooh. Keep talking....

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

It's a pretty run

Indeed.  Solid and Sold!

[NorthArlington101]

That isn't the UKMET's fault that's an issue with how the maps are generated.  For whatever reason no US outlets provide quality maps for the UKMET.  

weathermodels.com has good UKMET maps. But I can’t support them because I found out the owner of that project blocked me on Twitter when I’d never talked to them… lol. Guilt by association I guess

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

2-4  with a little lollipop of 4-6 riding the beltway north of DC and toward Annapolis, lol and one just north of PSU land...he could see it from his house

One thing I like about the euro, and some other guidance trended this way some at 12z, is it's amplifying the wave just enough to get a little better moisture transport across the thermal boundary and thus has a bit more uniform precip field.  It also is a flush hit with that better precip field right over our area...but it would mean less extreme winners and losers and just a more uniform snowfall across the area.  Not saying there wouldn't be the 5" v 3" type variability but would probably see less 5" to 1" type differences within small geographic areas within the precip field with the euro solution.  

[NorthArlington101]

10:1


Kuchera

[Eskimo Joe]

If the Euro is to be believed, then it's a borderline low end warning event from DC to Mason-Dixon.

[adelphi_sky]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The good stuff arrives between 9z and 12z..almost looks like a comma head type deal at 12z...was also on 6z

I like comma heads. Hours of fun!

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

10:1


Kuchera

Oh heck ya 

[T. August]

@Interstate@North Balti Zen There’s our triangle on the euro

[Terpeast]

So far models are trending for the better. 36-42 hours out

[NorthArlington101]

Oh heck ya 

I loved seeing the EURO pick up on the idea that ratios might be better than 10:1. Everything else has had a Kuchera map that’s been worse lol

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Oh heck ya 

[psuhoffman]

[BristowWx]

 

Just now, Solution Man said:

friggin awesome.  if that's the last event of the season then so be it.  looks like 4 inches of fun for us.  

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks on par with Jan 19 to me, if memory serves correctly.

If this verifies or trends any bit wetter, we have a low end warning event. LWX may not go that far because its a saturday