WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, yoda said: Post the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Post the qpf I edited it in just before you posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, yoda said: wtf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 got to be temp issues on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: wtf Ukie qpf actually looks about in line with the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Terpeast said: Ukie qpf actually looks about in line with the other models Yes but what's with the best guess precip type of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, yoda said: Yes but what's with the best guess precip type of rain? With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong (again, it means nothing as far as verification) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Terpeast said: With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong I mean that's DCA at 06z. Sounding is firmly below freezing at every level and 32 at surface... so I have no idea why rain is considered the best guess precip type. It has freezing rain at 48 hours as it's best guess precip type too. Very odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh? Above quoted is hr 42 at DCA sounding. Below is hr 48 sounding at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I don’t care what the verification scores say for UK, it’s never right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here's the Ukie 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Here's the Ukie Yeah, something must be wrong with that other map's algorithm for that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I don’t care what the verification scores say for UK, it’s never right. Yeah, I just don't get it. For like the last 10 years or so I keep hearing it's great verification scores, but with almost every storm it won't catch a clue until we're almost upon an event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I don't get enough credit for coining the Euro as Dr. No. I want my dues. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 For what it’s worth, the Weather Channel is saying 3-5 for just about everyone in here. Even mentioned a little upside potential. However, they did mention Georgetown specifically, and how those living in that quadrant of DC are completely fucked on this one. I was like whhhhhhaaaat! 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just because we are showing all the models, here is NCAR’s MPAS via NSSL. This is still in testing mode but is planning to work its way into operations in the future. Not much granularity available, but it does at least support the 0.25”+ amounts the other models are showing. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 27 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes but what's with the best guess precip type of rain? 25 minutes ago, Terpeast said: With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong (again, it means nothing as far as verification) The UKMET precip type maps on pivotal are awful. It works both ways...when the surface is cold they calculate ice as snow. Several times someone posted this crazy snow map all excited and I checked the thermals and was like "that's not snow". It also does this sometimes where because the surface is near 32 it calculates snow as rain. It seems to overly weight the surface for the precip type calculation. Just use the precip maps then look at the thermals and disregard the snow maps if you want to judge the UKMET. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, something must be wrong with that other map's algorithm for that run That or it's almost time for thread number 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 New thread....let's do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: New thread....let's do it no need...the models are holding or trending better. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro rolling...let's bring it on home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: New thread....let's do it I don't see the reason for it... but it's @Deck Pic thread then 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Carbon Copy of 6z so far through 27 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3z at the doorstep...not seeing any remarkable changes for us so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Gets going between 3z and 6z...still no huge differences vs 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 35 minutes ago, nj2va said: I don’t care what the verification scores say for UK, it’s never right. That isn't the UKMET's fault that's an issue with how the maps are generated. For whatever reason no US outlets provide quality maps for the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The good stuff arrives between 9z and 12z..almost looks like a comma head type deal at 12z...was also on 6z 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2-4 with a little lollipop of 4-6 riding the beltway north of DC and toward Annapolis, lol and one just north of PSU land...he could see it from his house 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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