Solution Man Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Just now, EHoffman said: The more letters mean more reliability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: The more letters mean more reliability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Seems like Kuchera not buying the high ratio stuff. Certainly not buying crazy JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 20 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Yeah. I know people don't care because this an IMBY game but...it has been a long time and I kinda chuckle when I see another system with slightly drier amounts for our area is all. It's all fine, I get it...etc., etc., but...just once would like to maximize QPF up in our devil's trianlge of sadness when it is cold enough to be snow. Been a quick minute. Like, 8 years of waiting... Lol 2016 I got fringed hard. About 20” here with 36” in Bel Air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 18 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Not sure if this was posted or not. Looks good to me! Wow! That’s a huge bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Seems like Kuchera not buying the high ratio stuff. Certainly not buying crazy JB. Don't look at the raw output, take a look at the soundings. We have signs of a fully saturated DGZ for several hours and it's at night. You can really jackpot in that case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 What's the thought in terms of start time - 3z/4z-ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Just now, Warm Nose said: What's the thought in terms of start time - 3z/4z-ish? 3zish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Canadian is wetter but not the best precip distribution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Don't look at the raw output, take a look at the soundings. We have signs of a fully saturated DGZ for several hours and it's at night. You can really jackpot in that case. Exactly right. No way in hell we are getting less than 10:1 in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 13 minutes ago, T. August said: Lol 2016 I got fringed hard. About 20” here with 36” in Bel Air. Only 12 inches from that here in Newark Del. I think we got the minimum for that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Borrowing this from @RIC Airport 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 18 minutes ago, T. August said: Canadian is wetter but not the best precip distribution. I will be in Rehoboth Beach Delaware for this one.. any chance that 0.35 comes in as all snow there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 22 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I will be in Rehoboth Beach Delaware for this one.. any chance that 0.35 comes in as all snow there? Verbatim on the Canadian it’s all snow but you’ll be fighting sfc temps. 34-35° during the heaviest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Very odd 12z UKIE run... I think we can safely toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Just now, yoda said: Very odd 12z UKIE run... I think we can safely toss Post it for everyone to see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Post it for everyone to see... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Post it for everyone to see... It’s qpf is in the same line as the others but it’s snow output is dismal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Just now, yoda said: Post the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Post the qpf I edited it in just before you posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 2 minutes ago, yoda said: wtf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 got to be temp issues on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: wtf Ukie qpf actually looks about in line with the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: Ukie qpf actually looks about in line with the other models Yes but what's with the best guess precip type of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 1 minute ago, yoda said: Yes but what's with the best guess precip type of rain? With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong (again, it means nothing as far as verification) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong I mean that's DCA at 06z. Sounding is firmly below freezing at every level and 32 at surface... so I have no idea why rain is considered the best guess precip type. It has freezing rain at 48 hours as it's best guess precip type too. Very odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh? Above quoted is hr 42 at DCA sounding. Below is hr 48 sounding at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 I don’t care what the verification scores say for UK, it’s never right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Here's the Ukie Yeah, something must be wrong with that other map's algorithm for that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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