mdhokie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Oh... yes the favored areas to get the most and the such... but a bit of a surprise to see URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 946 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 MDZ001-501-VAZ503-504-507-WVZ050-055-501>506-152300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 946 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible with localized amounts up to 8 inches possible along the higher western facing slopes of the Allegheny Front. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. I'm skiing this weekend, hopefully it will cover up the brown mud from the melted 5" on Monday and the rain we are gonna get tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhatStorm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 That covers here in Blue Grass. Might get to try my new side by side plow. Will be so different having a heated cab instead of just a partially open windshield on old one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12z RGEM seems slower then the 12z NAM twins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I am sure beet juice warning will be hoisted soon Please no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z RGEM seems slower then the 12z NAM twins DC metro jackpot though of 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z RGEM seems slower then the 12z NAM twins The RGEM hates Baltimore City. Ever since I cussed it out when it showed us getting 40+ inches that one run, it has hated Baltimore County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 But like I said yesterday... you can see how the mountains kills the organized QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Interstate said: But like I said yesterday... you can see how the mountains kills the organized QPF. LWX in their updated morning AFD disagrees (10am update) SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Brief high pressure builds in early Friday behind the exiting clipper before a second clipper system approaches and passes to the south and brings snow to the region. Most of the guidance has the surface low tracking near the I-64 corridor toward the lower Chesapeake Bay, though there is still some ensemble members that take a more northern track. The latest 06Z guidance, and the early 12Z guidance is indicating an uptick of QPF, particularly from Pendleton/Highland east toward the Blue Ridge. Even though surface temps will be marginal, around 29F-32F during the peak of the event, snow rates will be high and there is a good signal for banding somewhere in the area. As a result, have increased snow totals this morning to 4-6" in the Alleghenies, 3-5" in the Shenandoah Valley from Rockingham County northward, 2-4" north of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge, and 1-2"south of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Alleghenies and portions of the Potomac Highlands. Additional Watches, Warnings, and Advisories are likely to be issued later this afternoon. Stay tuned for additional updates on snow totals as the latest guidance comes in. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I'll happily take a 2-4er 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, yoda said: LWX in their updated morning AFD disagrees (10am update) SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Brief high pressure builds in early Friday behind the exiting clipper before a second clipper system approaches and passes to the south and brings snow to the region. Most of the guidance has the surface low tracking near the I-64 corridor toward the lower Chesapeake Bay, though there is still some ensemble members that take a more northern track. The latest 06Z guidance, and the early 12Z guidance is indicating an uptick of QPF, particularly from Pendleton/Highland east toward the Blue Ridge. Even though surface temps will be marginal, around 29F-32F during the peak of the event, snow rates will be high and there is a good signal for banding somewhere in the area. As a result, have increased snow totals this morning to 4-6" in the Alleghenies, 3-5" in the Shenandoah Valley from Rockingham County northward, 2-4" north of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge, and 1-2"south of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Alleghenies and portions of the Potomac Highlands. Additional Watches, Warnings, and Advisories are likely to be issued later this afternoon. Stay tuned for additional updates on snow totals as the latest guidance comes in. This proves my point... as the QPF move from west to east... the snowfall becomes less. It goes from 4-6 to 1-2/2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: This proves my point... as the QPF move from west to east... the snowfall becomes less. It goes from 4-6 to 1-2/2-4 I’m just curious if you think you’re telling us something new? Did they just put the mountains there last week? 1 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12z ICON has the two banding idea... one across M/D line other across i66 corridor... can see this on the qpf map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I’m just curious if you think you’re telling us something new? Did they just put the mountains there last week? Why so hostile? I am just pointing it out. Expecting it to really juice up will be hard with the orientation of the precipitation field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, yoda said: 12z ICON has the two banding idea... one across M/D line other across i66 corridor... can see this on the qpf map 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, yoda said: Damn. That's sexy AF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Damn. That's sexy AF Equates to a bit less snowfall though compared to the 06z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Sold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, yoda said: If that verifies, someone along the m/d line is getting 7”+ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: Why so hostile? I am just pointing it out. Expecting it to really juice up will be hard with the orientation of the precipitation field. Not necessarily, trying to be hostile, but most of your posts aren’t positive. This threat looks pretty solid, compared to where we started. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I see Wes 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Not necessarily, trying to be hostile, but most of your posts aren’t positive. This threat looks pretty solid, compared to where we started. I am not being negative like the last threat. I think this will be good for 1-3 inches east of the BR with maybe some 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Equates to a bit less snowfall though compared to the 06z run Still really close to its 6z run. Basically 3 to 5 across much of the area with maybe 6 or 7 in the area that jack pots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: NOAA has a new link for the NBM snowfall. It's really slick: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-105&theme=dark&timeZone=local&hourFormat=12&x4dviewState={"latitude"%3A40.5%2C"longitude"%3A-100%2C"bearing"%3A0%2C"pitch"%3A20%2C"zoom"%3A4}&dset=HREF-CONUS&clusHghlgt=true&x4dGrid={"HREF"%3A{"url"%3A[40.5%2C-100%2C388%2C270]}}&x4dMapStyle=2D&x4dMaps={"basemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Mapbox"}%2C"simpleBasemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Dark"}%2C"mapboxBasemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Satellite"}} btw be careful using that website, only do it for personal use as its non operational rn and only for testing if too many people use it and share it it might be taken down which would be a shame since its an amazing resource Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sold Appetizer coming up before the HH main event this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If these precip amounts are correct the snowfall totals are wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: If these precip amounts are correct the snowfall totals are wrong I agree; good 850’s, pretty good lift in the DGZ, I expect 12-14:1 ratios in places north of DC and especially I70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 You think 6" is in play for DCA? Because that would bring it's seasonal total to ~14" which is slightly above climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If these precip amounts are correct the snowfall totals are wrong yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 33 hours, looks like it's holding so far....money frames coming up...looks just an ass hair quicker out west. Noise level tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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