The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm

[WVsnowlover]

4 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

QPF up 150% at DCA on NAM!!!!

....from 0.2" to 0.3"

Your math isn't mathing lol

[paulythegun]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Wouldn't that be a 50% increase?

haha right. 

Dew points kind of suck on this run....never gets below freezing inside the beltway. 

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

stiill snowing at 45, Ji back edge approaching, little, longer duration about 7 to 8 hr. of snow. Ration better than 10-1.

maybe for the northern folks... kuchera is worse for all but them. Not that Kuchera is 100% gonna nail it, but just saying

[wtkidz]

[paulythegun]

If this thing arrived during the day, with this middling airmass (and middling moisture that isn't going to overcome temps outside of localized banding), I guess it would just be some wet white rain right? For the city at least. At least if you buy NAM. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

maybe for the northern folks... kuchera is worse for all but them. Not that Kuchera is 100% gonna nail it, but just saying

 

I hear you...but it did come in a bit wetter...we gotta like that.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

I hear you...but it did come in a bit wetter...we gotta like that.

thought it was better for sure. 3k looks about the same as it did last run.

[Solution Man]

I am sure beet juice warning will be hoisted soon

[snowfan]

If the NAM could just adjust the QPF min over one of your houses and not mine, I’d be good with it. 

[NorthArlington101]

It's nice to see the 90th percentile EPS keep ticking up. #upside

[stormtracker]

What a night. Ok. Seems like things are status quo?  My expectations are a 1-2 deal for the city.  Think I’m good for it 

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's nice to see the 90th percentile EPS keep ticking up. #upside

I don't like seeing how north it is getting. Like some have said, there are two max bands, one with heaviest qpf and bad temps and one with great temps and solid qpf. The colder of those two bands seems to be drifting up into southern PA on some of the models.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The snow maps on the NAM are wacky. The Kuchera map is showing less than the 10:1 for my area. There is no way in hell with the sounding that it shows that I’d be less than 10:1

[paulythegun]

Time to beg @MikeTFox5 to post the latest Graf Model. Will report back.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What a night. Ok. Seems like things are status quo?  My expectations are a 1-2 deal for the city.  Think I’m good for it 

My bar is 2".  But yeah... 1-3 sounds good and let the chips fall where they may on anything more

[yoda]

Oh... yes the favored areas to get the most and the such... but a bit of a surprise to see

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
946 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

MDZ001-501-VAZ503-504-507-WVZ050-055-501>506-152300-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Hardy-
Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
946 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches are possible with localized amounts up to 8 inches
  possible along the higher western facing slopes of the Allegheny
  Front.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northwest and western
  Virginia and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

NOAA has a new link for the NBM snowfall. It's really slick: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-105&theme=dark&timeZone=local&hourFormat=12&x4dviewState={"latitude"%3A40.5%2C"longitude"%3A-100%2C"bearing"%3A0%2C"pitch"%3A20%2C"zoom"%3A4}&dset=HREF-CONUS&clusHghlgt=true&x4dGrid={"HREF"%3A{"url"%3A[40.5%2C-100%2C388%2C270]}}&x4dMapStyle=2D&x4dMaps={"basemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Mapbox"}%2C"simpleBasemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Dark"}%2C"mapboxBasemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Satellite"}}

[WxUSAF]

3k NAM soundings show strong lift in a saturated DGZ around 7z. 

[mdhokie]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Oh... yes the favored areas to get the most and the such... but a bit of a surprise to see

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
946 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

MDZ001-501-VAZ503-504-507-WVZ050-055-501>506-152300-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Hardy-
Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
946 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches are possible with localized amounts up to 8 inches
  possible along the higher western facing slopes of the Allegheny
  Front.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northwest and western
  Virginia and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

I'm skiing this weekend, hopefully it will cover up the brown mud from the melted 5" on Monday and the rain we are gonna get tomorrow.

[PhatStorm]

That covers here in Blue Grass. Might get to try my new side by side plow. Will be so different having a heated cab instead of just a partially open windshield on old one

 

[yoda]

12z RGEM seems slower then the 12z NAM twins

[Wxdood]

28 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I am sure beet juice warning will be hoisted soon

Please no...

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z RGEM seems slower then the 12z NAM twins

DC metro jackpot though of 3"

[Interstate]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z RGEM seems slower then the 12z NAM twins

The RGEM hates Baltimore City.  Ever since I cussed it out when it showed us getting 40+ inches that one run, it has hated Baltimore County.

[Interstate]

But like I said yesterday... you can see how the mountains kills the organized QPF.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

But like I said yesterday... you can see how the mountains kills the organized QPF.

LWX in their updated morning AFD disagrees (10am update)

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Brief high pressure builds in early Friday behind the exiting
clipper before a second clipper system approaches and passes to
the south and brings snow to the region.

Most of the guidance has the surface low tracking near the I-64
corridor toward the lower Chesapeake Bay, though there is still
some ensemble members that take a more northern track. The
latest 06Z guidance, and the early 12Z guidance is indicating an
uptick of QPF, particularly from Pendleton/Highland east toward
the Blue Ridge. Even though surface temps will be marginal,
around 29F-32F during the peak of the event, snow rates will be
high and there is a good signal for banding somewhere in the
area. As a result, have increased snow totals this morning to
4-6" in the Alleghenies, 3-5" in the Shenandoah Valley from
Rockingham County northward, 2-4" north of I-66 and east of
Blue Ridge, and 1-2"south of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge.
Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Alleghenies and
portions of the Potomac Highlands. Additional Watches, Warnings,
and Advisories are likely to be issued later this afternoon.
Stay tuned for additional updates on snow totals as the latest
guidance comes in.

[Terpeast]

I'll happily take a 2-4er

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

LWX in their updated morning AFD disagrees (10am update)

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Brief high pressure builds in early Friday behind the exiting
clipper before a second clipper system approaches and passes to
the south and brings snow to the region.

Most of the guidance has the surface low tracking near the I-64
corridor toward the lower Chesapeake Bay, though there is still
some ensemble members that take a more northern track. The
latest 06Z guidance, and the early 12Z guidance is indicating an
uptick of QPF, particularly from Pendleton/Highland east toward
the Blue Ridge. Even though surface temps will be marginal,
around 29F-32F during the peak of the event, snow rates will be
high and there is a good signal for banding somewhere in the
area. As a result, have increased snow totals this morning to
4-6" in the Alleghenies, 3-5" in the Shenandoah Valley from
Rockingham County northward, 2-4" north of I-66 and east of
Blue Ridge, and 1-2"south of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge.
Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Alleghenies and
portions of the Potomac Highlands. Additional Watches, Warnings,
and Advisories are likely to be issued later this afternoon.
Stay tuned for additional updates on snow totals as the latest
guidance comes in.

This proves my point... as the QPF move from west to east... the snowfall becomes less.  It goes from 4-6 to 1-2/2-4

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

This proves my point... as the QPF move from west to east... the snowfall becomes less.  It goes from 4-6 to 1-2/2-4

I’m just curious if you think you’re telling us something new? Did they just put the mountains there last week?

[yoda]

12z ICON has the two banding idea... one across M/D line other across i66 corridor... can see this on the qpf map