Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm


DDweatherman
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The storm has been over performing to our west. Makes no sense. I’m skeptical. 

i think it's less impressive because most of all it cuts back the extra precip associated w the piece near the back edge which lines up with obs. but i just honestly doubt that it'll be that low because rates look impressive compared to NAM 3K which only gets to 1"/hr rates at best

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

We could be looking at a 50 degree night or rain. I’ll take my couple inches of snow and be happy. 

Amen to this. No reason in getting bothered by something not a single one of us have any control over. It's a Friday night and it's going to snow. About to pour my first drink, get in the hot tub, and keep watch for virga lol. Returns are getting close. Looking forward to watching this one unfold. It's a dynamic event and still has potential for a surprise vs what the latest model runs are showing imo. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said:

Amen to this. No reason in getting bothered by something not a single one of us have any control over. It's a Friday night and it's going to snow. About to pour my first drink, get in the hot tub, and keep watch for virga lol. Returns are getting close. Looking forward to watching this one unfold. It's a dynamic event and still has potential for a surprise vs what the latest model runs are showing imo. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28.2/24.1 with steady, light snow. It took about 90 minutes of virga before the snow reached the ground. NWS map as of ~9PM is still holding onto 8-12 IMBY. If that were to realize, I would have to get into intense and sustained bands and based on radar, that is not happening. Not being a deb, just realistic. Looks to clear here by ~3 AM. Currently a dusting. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
949 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across southern Virginia tonight. High
pressure will build across the central and eastern U.S. through
the first half of next week. Another frontal system and area of
low pressure may approach late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Snow has begun across far western areas based on sfc obs at 2G4.
In addition, the snowfall rate satellite produdct from a MetOp-C
pass at 0155Z indicated that snow was falling aloft across
northern MD and VA west of US-29 at that time, but was still
not reaching the ground yet per sfc obs. The wetbulb zero height
on the 00Z IAD sounding was only 740 feet indicating the p-type
should be snow here once precip makes it to the ground. While
the fcst remains generally on track, there are some p-type
issues across the southern half and southeastern portions of the
CWA where sfc obs and model fields show a pressure trough/wind
shift from NE to SE. This sfc trough/wind shift line currently
lies along US-29. While the winds should shift overnight around
as low pressure passes to the south, there air is still mild in
those areas with temps in the mid to upper 40s. Low level temps
and thicknesses in those areas support more rain than snow
especially across southern MD, Charlottesville, and
Fredericksburg. Believe snow totals in those areas are more than
likely to be on the lower end of the range or even less with
more rain than snow.

As previous fcstr mentioned, there could be multiple snow bands
that develop across the region overnight. Latest model output
continue to suggest this with one band setting up across
southern Pennsylvania and another one setting up across northern
VA into central MD with a minima in QPF across northern MD east
of Cumberland and across the eastern WV panhandle. The snow
should end no later than 12Z Saturday everywhere.
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Right.  I have lurked on the board for over ten years now and swear you guys see shifts that never materialize based off of pre-storm paranoia.   I can’t tell you how many time I have seen it. It usually happens during the Virga stage.   
 
The flagship gfs model gave us an increase in snowfall totals at 18z.  Stop looking at the rgem and the hrrr and all the other jv models… they are just gonna make you crazy.
Sleep well knowing that tomorrow morning when you wake up it’s gonna be ripping.

The “flagship model” made me chuckle
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After a rockin start to happy hour, had to get a halftime break in. Now just finally getting back to it. It’s Burial Brewing DIPA time for sure, but did I miss anything while I was out? When is my thundersnow!? I’m out here and waiting to act like Jim Cantore. :lol:

IMG_9519.jpeg

  • Like 6
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

After a rockin start to happy hour, had to get a halftime break in. Now just finally getting back to it. It’s Burial Brewing DIPA time for sure, but did I miss anything while I was out? When is my thundersnow!? I’m out here and waiting to act like Jim Cantore. :lol:

IMG_9519.jpeg

I thought you would he passed out. Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

still 41 here - 42 at DCA.

Not sure if we will hit below 33 until after the precip already moves out - will still be fun to watch the snow fall tonight. Just think the amp and shift north definitely made the already marginal temp situation for DC proper worse! I'll take my 1-2 and run though! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Big bust potential.. 1z and 2z models dried up a little further, have a lot of the precip getting stuck in the mountains.. 1-2" in the lower elevations north of I-95.  Will be interesting to see what happens! 

Go to sleep Chuck

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...