WxUSAF Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 38/21 talk to you weenies when the thundersnow wakes me up 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The storm has been over performing to our west. Makes no sense. I’m skeptical. i think it's less impressive because most of all it cuts back the extra precip associated w the piece near the back edge which lines up with obs. but i just honestly doubt that it'll be that low because rates look impressive compared to NAM 3K which only gets to 1"/hr rates at best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 22 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: We could be looking at a 50 degree night or rain. I’ll take my couple inches of snow and be happy. Amen to this. No reason in getting bothered by something not a single one of us have any control over. It's a Friday night and it's going to snow. About to pour my first drink, get in the hot tub, and keep watch for virga lol. Returns are getting close. Looking forward to watching this one unfold. It's a dynamic event and still has potential for a surprise vs what the latest model runs are showing imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 40/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said: Amen to this. No reason in getting bothered by something not a single one of us have any control over. It's a Friday night and it's going to snow. About to pour my first drink, get in the hot tub, and keep watch for virga lol. Returns are getting close. Looking forward to watching this one unfold. It's a dynamic event and still has potential for a surprise vs what the latest model runs are showing imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 36.4 with dew point of 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 CWG lowering totals (after raising them). @NorthArlington101 are we still in the 2-5” lol? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 30 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I know but we’ll probably have to wait until 2026-2027 for another chance at an AN snow season. Is the Panic Room closed for cleaning or something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 28.2/24.1 with steady, light snow. It took about 90 minutes of virga before the snow reached the ground. NWS map as of ~9PM is still holding onto 8-12 IMBY. If that were to realize, I would have to get into intense and sustained bands and based on radar, that is not happening. Not being a deb, just realistic. Looks to clear here by ~3 AM. Currently a dusting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 26/24, SN (with big fatties), 0.5”. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 LWX pretty much holds with the previous forecast 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 949 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across southern Virginia tonight. High pressure will build across the central and eastern U.S. through the first half of next week. Another frontal system and area of low pressure may approach late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Snow has begun across far western areas based on sfc obs at 2G4. In addition, the snowfall rate satellite produdct from a MetOp-C pass at 0155Z indicated that snow was falling aloft across northern MD and VA west of US-29 at that time, but was still not reaching the ground yet per sfc obs. The wetbulb zero height on the 00Z IAD sounding was only 740 feet indicating the p-type should be snow here once precip makes it to the ground. While the fcst remains generally on track, there are some p-type issues across the southern half and southeastern portions of the CWA where sfc obs and model fields show a pressure trough/wind shift from NE to SE. This sfc trough/wind shift line currently lies along US-29. While the winds should shift overnight around as low pressure passes to the south, there air is still mild in those areas with temps in the mid to upper 40s. Low level temps and thicknesses in those areas support more rain than snow especially across southern MD, Charlottesville, and Fredericksburg. Believe snow totals in those areas are more than likely to be on the lower end of the range or even less with more rain than snow. As previous fcstr mentioned, there could be multiple snow bands that develop across the region overnight. Latest model output continue to suggest this with one band setting up across southern Pennsylvania and another one setting up across northern VA into central MD with a minima in QPF across northern MD east of Cumberland and across the eastern WV panhandle. The snow should end no later than 12Z Saturday everywhere. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 36/24Bummer this may end up being drier. Temps have cooled nicely. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Is the Panic Room closed for cleaning or something? I mean it’s not panic if it’s rooted in science. The cards are stacked against us in Ninas and Ninas more often than not double dip. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Right. I have lurked on the board for over ten years now and swear you guys see shifts that never materialize based off of pre-storm paranoia. I can’t tell you how many time I have seen it. It usually happens during the Virga stage. The flagship gfs model gave us an increase in snowfall totals at 18z. Stop looking at the rgem and the hrrr and all the other jv models… they are just gonna make you crazy. Sleep well knowing that tomorrow morning when you wake up it’s gonna be ripping.The “flagship model” made me chuckle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 After a rockin start to happy hour, had to get a halftime break in. Now just finally getting back to it. It’s Burial Brewing DIPA time for sure, but did I miss anything while I was out? When is my thundersnow!? I’m out here and waiting to act like Jim Cantore. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I mean it’s not panic if it’s rooted in science. The cards are stacked against us in Ninas and Ninas more often than not double dip. This is a storm thread and you are canceling the next two winters in it! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I mean it’s not panic if it’s rooted in science. The cards are stacked against us in Ninas and Ninas more often than not double dip. Go sell miserable somewhere else. We're all stocked up here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, paulythegun said: The “flagship model” made me chuckle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: After a rockin start to happy hour, had to get a halftime break in. Now just finally getting back to it. It’s Burial Brewing DIPA time for sure, but did I miss anything while I was out? When is my thundersnow!? I’m out here and waiting to act like Jim Cantore. I thought you would he passed out. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 39/26 getting there… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 still 41 here - 42 at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I mean it’s not panic if it’s rooted in science. The cards are stacked against us in Ninas and Ninas more often than not double dip. Again, there are 15 available threads for you to post this in. Keep this to obs. FFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: still 41 here - 42 at DCA. Not sure if we will hit below 33 until after the precip already moves out - will still be fun to watch the snow fall tonight. Just think the amp and shift north definitely made the already marginal temp situation for DC proper worse! I'll take my 1-2 and run though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 38/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 34/17 waiting. Radar looks good to me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 19 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: LWX pretty much holds with the previous forecast Big bust potential.. 1z and 2z models dried up a little further, have a lot of the precip getting stuck in the mountains.. 1-2" in the lower elevations north of I-95. Will be interesting to see what happens! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Big bust potential.. 1z and 2z models dried up a little further, have a lot of the precip getting stuck in the mountains.. 1-2" in the lower elevations north of I-95. Will be interesting to see what happens! Go to sleep Chuck 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I know but we’ll probably have to wait until 2026-2027 for another chance at an AN snow season. Take it from me...ya don't wanna put this here in a storm thread, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 36. Inching my way there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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