paulythegun Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 FINAL MAP 3 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 53 minutes ago, Wxtrix said: it’s automated Really? What does it take to up to a warning? More than 5”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yeah... but both the HRRR/RAP has the best snows in south central PA now Looking forward to snow on snow after the 6-8” I got Tuesday per the Hrrr/rap combo forecast 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Really? What does it take to up to a warning? More than 5”? i’m guessing it is because it fluctuates in ways that usually have nothing to do with the texts of advisories and warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12k NAM is north and drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NAM starts around 9 PM out here. Hits hard for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12k NAM is north and drier eh... maybe just drier. Apologies for the miscall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: eh... maybe just drier. Apologies for the miscall. 10:1Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It’s wild that it’s still mostly sunny out and in like 8hrs will be dumping snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3k is quite a bit better than the 12k - at least for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NAM 3k with some gnarly rates over DC at hr 13. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, TSSN+ said: It’s wild that it’s still mostly sunny out and in like 8hrs will be dumping snow. That's what my wife said. She still doesn't believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 10:1Kuchera yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 For once this season, we got the dreaded north + warmer trend within the final hours... Won't make the biggest difference in most places but DC-proper definitely forfeits their max potential due to temps during onset of precip and worse dynamics during the event. SAD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2-4” is fine. Let’s do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 3k is quite a bit better than the 12k - at least for me It looks a lot like it's last run but drier. At least we get raked for a few hours. This all basically falls in a 3-hour span Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: I think so. You for sure. I could see you doubling my total. I might get stuck at like 34 for a while. I think we get a 50% evap in this so I’m thinking at 8pm DCA is 44 with a dew point of 18 so when 90% rh and snowing steadily temp is 31/32 and Kemp Mill 30/31 Lets see its going to be best obs thread in a while. Not the torture of 3am and 38F and waiting on rain changing to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3k is warm… 33° during the heaviest for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Alfoman said: For once this season, we got the dreaded north + warmer trend within the final hours... Won't make the biggest difference in most places but DC-proper definitely forfeits their max potential due to temps during onset of precip and worse dynamics during the event. SAD. I think that's right for us. We probably do pretty so-so in the 11 pm - 1 am segment and score in the last 2-3 hours. I could see 0.5" or something in the first couple hours, and then we'll score at the end. I think 1-3" might be more realistic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, T. August said: 3k is warm… 33° during the heaviest for the cities. thank whatever you believe in this is overnight. Would be infuriating during the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 22 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yeah... but both the HRRR/RAP has the best snows in south central PA now That band they are focused on up there is long gone. That’s not ours. But the snow band for us is associated with the mid level fgen and better deep moisture transport. We just have to hope the CAMs are keying too much on that banding up in PA associated with the lift along the arctic boundary and are underdoing the southern max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It looks a lot like it's last run but drier. At least we get raked for a few hours. This all basically falls in a 3-hour span I don't like the kuchera maps for this. Better to come up with a predicted liquid amount and work from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Eyes now shift off models and onto precip mass to our west to monitor hourly precipitation intensity . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Deck Pic said: I don't like the kuchera maps for this. Better to come up with a predicted liquid amount and work from there. psu wants the kuchera maps, you don't want the kuchera maps, chuck is posting snow depth... what's a guy who's only contribution is posting maps to do? either way it's drier... hate to be a deb but drier. 18z 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This looks like it'll have a decent gradient between the hills in NW DC vs downtown/DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 50 currently downtown. LOL. blew past the projected high of 46. Typical DC winter M.O. now... watch it cloud over just in time for sunset and then watch for the 1 degree drop every 4 hours. Will see what wet bulbs are with the low later with the low dews. But it's always just so warm in the immediate metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This seems to have really shifted. The two maxes still show up. The southern max has come up to just north of DC and the other max is now in Central PA. If we had not started so far south this would have been worse for many! This shift is sad for many in the southern part of the forum. Maybe it will expand a bit south. 2 to 4/3 to 5 inch seems the best we get with some local lucky folks. Get a little elevation, you may see more. I hope the shifts north and drier trends stop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, ovechkin said: 50 currently downtown. LOL. blew past the projected high of 46. Typical DC winter M.O. now... watch it cloud over just in time for sunset and then watch for the 1 degree drop every 4 hours. Will see what wet bulbs are with the low later with the low dews. But it's always just so warm in the immediate metro. 47 in Mt. Pleasant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: There are many times when the accumulated snow depth product should be examined, but it hates events with marginal temps and big rates like this one. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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