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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm


DDweatherman
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Thundersnow incoming?

From 1023 AFDLWX:
Some lightning was being
detected over southern Missouri, indicating elevated instability
and strong, deep lift via low-level frontogenesis and very
strong upper-level divergence in the left exit region of an
incoming jet streak.
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43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Instead of wrangling over digital ratios, just use your memory. Imo, because of the start temps in the closer burbs, I don't see how my yard clocks over 10:1 in total without instability or fronto luck (impossible to predict).

Euro has been steady with qpf for a while. It doesn't blow that too often this close with a fairly simple wave. So .40qpf seems like a good # there. 10:1 max avg would lay down an honest 3.5-4". Seems like a fair take but we all have our own way

You also rarely have a sounding that looks like this...

download.thumb.png.1a71975329740bc0065fe676eb1c8fe6.png

The only issue there is the surface... seriously why is it 33 in the middle of the night under heavy precip north of the NS thermal boundary on February 17th?  But that aside... the surface is important obviously if its actually 33 and thus the snow compacts and melts some as it hits the ground.  But if it were to be say 31 at the surface instead of 33 and the rest of that sounding is accurate you very well could get 12 or 15-1 ratios.  It's common for these NS waves to have fairly high ratios, what hasn't been common lately is for them to track south enough for it to do us any good.  In this case what might ruin that for us is weirdly high surface temps given the situation.  

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4 minutes ago, Demeter said:

Definitely moved north enough, in the last 12 hours, to take all digi snow away from those of us near EZF, ouch.  But staying positive for a few flakes. 

starting to wonder if that is the low being a touch stronger.  when it was an EZF jackpot it was 1007...now 1004...might be noise but i see your point goes from snow globe to snizzle in just a short distance.  Euro next..keep the faith

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34 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

My fantasy is they cut Loudoun in half with the warning just to mess with Ji

 

33 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

They did

They need to gerrymander the forecast zones to cut out his block as if he were some start up candidate in a primary against an entrenched party bulwark 

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