EHoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: That looks nice for MBY I'll take one of these please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Totals are gonna be decent but man, those rates - that's the real jewel of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The system keeps moving north w each run; hope we can hold on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Surprised there’s not more panic about the north trend. The wiggle room for dc is gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Kuchera is more realistic. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 59 minutes ago, CAPE said: This almost makes me want to head to Rehoboth lol. Took my son on a snow chase that one time a few years back when Ocean City got a foot. Nothin like a winter landscape on a beach! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Negnao said: Surprised there’s not more panic about the north trend. The wiggle room for dc is gone. Eh. There is very little time left. 12 hours until snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 4 to 6 area wide, 6-8 DC N and West up to Mont county. Swoon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Definitely pushed FGEN north like NAM super high over central MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Swoon Think my bar yesterday was too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Good thing these trends didn’t pan out for the last storm, which really went exactly as we thought 12 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, Negnao said: Surprised there’s not more panic about the north trend. The wiggle room for dc is gone. I've been keeping it in the panic room. But GFS was actually colder on this run so the north trend was mitigated a bit. Stilll.....knife's edge! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Double swoon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Think my bar yesterday was too low. I almost can’t believe we’re going to pull off another 11th hour max potential 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Double swoon There should be some good fluff to this, that's not a wet slop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Definitely moved north enough, in the last 12 hours, to take all digi snow away from those of us near EZF, ouch. But staying positive for a few flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: That looks nice for MBY @Ji we bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Thundersnow incoming? From 1023 AFDLWX: Some lightning was being detected over southern Missouri, indicating elevated instability and strong, deep lift via low-level frontogenesis and very strong upper-level divergence in the left exit region of an incoming jet streak. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Instead of wrangling over digital ratios, just use your memory. Imo, because of the start temps in the closer burbs, I don't see how my yard clocks over 10:1 in total without instability or fronto luck (impossible to predict). Euro has been steady with qpf for a while. It doesn't blow that too often this close with a fairly simple wave. So .40qpf seems like a good # there. 10:1 max avg would lay down an honest 3.5-4". Seems like a fair take but we all have our own way You also rarely have a sounding that looks like this... The only issue there is the surface... seriously why is it 33 in the middle of the night under heavy precip north of the NS thermal boundary on February 17th? But that aside... the surface is important obviously if its actually 33 and thus the snow compacts and melts some as it hits the ground. But if it were to be say 31 at the surface instead of 33 and the rest of that sounding is accurate you very well could get 12 or 15-1 ratios. It's common for these NS waves to have fairly high ratios, what hasn't been common lately is for them to track south enough for it to do us any good. In this case what might ruin that for us is weirdly high surface temps given the situation. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 30 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: Not sure what more you would want at this point with this wave. This is excellent, especially up near the Mason-Dixon, -12 at 700 overlapped with the best frontogenesis forcing is perfection. Seems a little NSFW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, Scraff said: Think my bar yesterday was too low. This is looking good. And raise the bar. You don't want to hurt your back reaching for that beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said: Seems a little NSFW lol 12z GFS is bigger.. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I almost can’t believe we’re going to pull off another 11th hour max potential Lets chill a bit with the N trend tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Demeter said: Definitely moved north enough, in the last 12 hours, to take all digi snow away from those of us near EZF, ouch. But staying positive for a few flakes. starting to wonder if that is the low being a touch stronger. when it was an EZF jackpot it was 1007...now 1004...might be noise but i see your point goes from snow globe to snizzle in just a short distance. Euro next..keep the faith 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: 12z GFS is bigger.. woah...check that out Solution man and wonderdog. total weenie if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looks great! WB 12Z GFS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 SPCs 12z HREF. Nice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I really hope to get ThunderSnow out of this one. Would be an awesome cherry on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 34 minutes ago, EHoffman said: My fantasy is they cut Loudoun in half with the warning just to mess with Ji 33 minutes ago, stormtracker said: They did They need to gerrymander the forecast zones to cut out his block as if he were some start up candidate in a primary against an entrenched party bulwark 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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