CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This almost makes me want to head to Rehoboth lol. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: They snatched back the Warning to the west. Poor Ji. Don't despair, we'll get upgraded after midnight when the storm is just about over. Or the 3:30 pm update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Or the 3:30 pm update I doubt it... I think LWX is doing a good job. Most will not see 5+ inches, which is the criteria for a warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I doubt it... I think LWX is doing a good job. Most will not see 5+ inches, which is the criteria for a warning level event. And they have a safety net with the wording for up to 6" in places under banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: They snatched back the Warning to the west. Poor Ji. Don't despair, we'll get upgraded after midnight when the storm is just about over. Leesburg is not in eastern Loudoun so i consider myself under a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 56 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Rough snow forecast outline (Medium Confidence): Zone A: 6-10" Zone B: 3-5" w/ stripe of 5-6" within the 85H frontogen band that sets up from NoVA through SoMD. The potential does include the DC metro, but best chance for highest totals will lie on the edge and outside the beltway. Uncertainty for Southern DE due to thermals Zone C: 4-6" in the Catoctins and adjacent terrain Zone D: 4-6" w/ max of 7" elevation areas above 650ft. This is tricky depending on 7H frontogenesis placement Most of region: 2-5" fairly widespread. Higher totals within the Parrs ridge area from NW MoCo through western HoCo into the Carroll/Frederick border (Clarksburg/Damascus/Mount Airy). 1-2" for areas south of Zone B I'll try to fine tune this forecast with the new 12z data set. Might be bumping totals a bit 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Don’t think anyone posted this yet… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 35 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates. Surface temps. Kuchera uses the warmest temp below h5 as a significant part of the calculation. Looking at soundings a lot of the area is right at 32 during the snowfall. First of all, that is a little warmer than I expected for a NS wave at night with the thermal boundary south of us! That said, so long as temps get below freezing so there isn't actually a lot of compaction as the snow hits the ground (at night there shouldn't be so long as temps are BELOW 32, gonna be close unfortunately) IMO the temps in the DGZ and through most of the column are more important. There is good saturation and lift in the DGZ so we should have near optimal snow growth. The column is cold until near the ground so there is nothing to ruin the integrity of the flakes. So long as the ground temps can be 30-31 and not 32-33 I think we will get higher ratios. 12-1 maybe. Places a little further north in the region that also get under good banding could see 15-1. But again this depends totally on ground temps not actually being 32-33. I was NOT expecting that...at night, north of the thermal boundary in a NS wave...under heavy precip, we should NOT have surface temp issues in mid February! But its going to be close...1 or 2 degrees as the surface will make all the difference here between getting low ratios due to ground compaction/melt and getting high ratios because every other level is good. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’ve had 2 warnings this year and only got 3.5” and 3” out of both so maybe this time the adv will get me more lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Leesburg is not in eastern Loudoun so i consider myself under a warning Technically it is but we are both close enough, I think if you walked to the old West Park golf course that is considered the start of western loudoun up by you and if i walked a few feet to my west I would be in western loudoun. So close enough i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, aldie 22 said: Technically it is but we are both close enough, I think if you walked to the old West Park golf course that is considered the start of western loudoun up by you and if i walked a few feet to my west I would be in western loudoun. So close enough i suppose. i mean our neighborhood backs to route 15 until you and Dave johnson moved out! Poor Dave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 ICON. Noise changes mostly but a little improved from 6Z, I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Ji said: i mean our neighborhood backs to route 15 until you and Dave johnson moved out! Poor Dave! You are basically a mile or so from Western Loudoun as am i down here. I'm as close to 15 here as i was up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Western loudoun is either/both higher elevation and less populated than eastern loudoun, so it makes sense they hedged with a warning there. It's also a saturday morning, so that's probably why they went with a WWA east loudoun even though they're forecasting for 3-5" locally up to 7" imby. Had it been a weekday, they would have gone with a warning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 CYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Western loudoun is either/both higher elevation and less populated than eastern loudoun, so it makes sense they hedged with a warning there. It's also a saturday morning, so that's probably why they went with a WWA east loudoun even though they're forecasting for 3-5" locally up to 7" imby. Had it been a weekday, they would have gone with a warning. I don’t see this hitting warning levels in most spots, so the advisory makes sense. The 7” thing is a stretch IMO and probably mainly for the highest parts of Parrs ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looking at the timing here...NAM 3k has about 3-4 hours of precip falling for the city, but well over 0.1" an hour. In other words: definitely set your alarm if you want to see some fatty pukage tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Or the 3:30 pm update Meh. I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Instead of wrangling over digital ratios, just use your memory. Imo, because of the start temps in the closer burbs, I don't see how my yard clocks over 10:1 in total without instability or fronto luck (impossible to predict). Euro has been steady with qpf for a while. It doesn't blow that too often this close with a fairly simple wave. So .40qpf seems like a good # there. 10:1 max avg would lay down an honest 3.5-4". Seems like a fair take but we all have our own way 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 20 minutes ago, Interstate said: I doubt it... I think LWX is doing a good job. Most will not see 5+ inches, which is the criteria for a warning level event. They’re doing ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Lots of dark blues on the 3km NAM on TT, almost from the get-go. All that snow falls within a 4-5 hour period. Definitely some near zero to negative theta lapse rates. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: They’re doing ok LWX is doing great honestly. We're just splitting hairs over snow. It's a sickness. It really is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Lots of dark blues on the 3km NAM on TT, almost from the get-go. All that snow falls within a 4-5 hour period. Definitely some near zero to negative theta lapse rates. Love languages have been spoken it seems. Love the h7 and h85 looks on nam as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Lots of dark blues on the 3km NAM on TT, almost from the get-go. All that snow falls within a 4-5 hour period. Definitely some near zero to negative theta lapse rates. I'm surprised how tempered the posts are considering how good the 3k looked. I'm kind of stoked for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The question is now. Will I stay up late enough to go out in the really heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Back in Fargo, we'd call this "another 2-4" event and everyone would shrug and go about their business. We're splitting hairs here at this point, this has been locked in for at least the last 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm surprised how tempered the posts are considering how good the 3k looked. I'm kind of stoked for this. I’d be even more stoked if it wasn’t super late at night. Might stay up till 3am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Fozz said: I would be even more stoked if it wasn’t super late at night. Might stay up till 3am or so. I'm planning on going to bed early'ish and getting up after midnight. But we'll see how much whiskey I get into this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Instead of wrangling over digital ratios, just use your memory. Imo, because of the start temps in the closer burbs, I don't see how my yard clocks over 10:1 in total without instability or fronto luck (impossible to predict). Euro has been steady with qpf for a while. It doesn't blow that too often this close with a fairly simple wave. So .40qpf seems like a good # there. 10:1 max avg would lay down an honest 3.5-4". Seems like a fair take but we all have our own way That's my wag. I called for 2-4" dc/balt metros and 4-7" far N&W, and don't see any reason to change that. I'd love to get 5" out of this, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now